fantasy premier league midfielders – analysing some stats

Fantasy Premier League

Well as my post on strikers got so much comment and interest I thought that I would extend it to midfielders.  Again I’m looking at shooting stats and conversion rates for midfielders and trying to see who’s potentially overperforming their natural conversion rate and will tail off their returns and those who are underperforming and will potentially get better returns than their current rate to the end of the season.  We’re doing that by comparing their shooting stats conversion rate to the league midfield average and  to their individual stats last season.  As I said in my strikers post it’s very rough and ready with other factors such as improved technique, variation in quality of chances and service and obviously different skill levels of players being a signicicant factor.  However it is one of the factors we can weigh up in making a decision on transfers.  If you think the striker post was controversial the midfield one is more difficult

fantasy premier league midfielders – analysing some stats

So there is a much wider spectrum of stats for midfielders in comparison to Strikers where the stats were pretty consistent.  The conversion rates varied wildly.  So the finishing skill affects the conversion rate so much more than strikers.  Thats while looking at players who are far from the average conversion rate means far less than strikers and then the comparison to last year becomes more important.  Again we are trying to identify players who are  potentially overperforming their natural conversion rate and will tail off their returns and those who are underperforming and will potentially get better returns than their current rate to the end of the season.  So to do that I’ve categorrised them in 4 categories.  Excuse the length of the headings by the way.  Again I’ve excluded penalties from their goals.  I’ve also only picked players who illustrate the points I’m trying to make.  It’s not meant to be an analysis of every midfielder

Those players who’s conversion rate that is significantly better than the premier league midfield average and significantly better than their individual conversion rate last year

There are only 2 players in this category.  The worry is that their goal scoring will drop off due to a potentially overperforming conversion rate

Mahrez (10 non penalty goals)

I’ve stopped trying to apply any common sense to Leicester.  This is a guy who got 1 returning game in his last 10 last season so to be where he is and Leicester is defies description.  Add to that a sky high ownership and having him in your team is a matter of damage limitation if you dont.  However the facts are that his conversion rate is miles better than anyone except Payet (we’ll come to him later) and so far ahead of his rate last year that it’s ridiculous.  The one qualification is that this is his 2nd year in the league and you should expect improvement in the next season after adjusting.  Over the season his quantity shooting stats are very good although they have dropped off recently which is why we’ve only seen 1 goal in his last 9 games.  A very dangerous player not to own though especially with Norwich next where he will undoubedly get chances.  I will be transferring him in due to that danger and the fact that Leicester have games in the blank weeks of GW27 and GW30.

Arnautovic (5 non penalty goals)

Like Mahrez he is overperforming the midfield average and significantly better than last season and has very little in the way of shooting stats to justfiy 5 goals.  Interestingly he has Villa next who have been dreadful defensively and no blanks in GW27 and GW30 so he is a handy player from that perspective

Those players with a significantly better than the premier league midfield average

Hard to know what to make of this as these are players new to the league so they have no last year stats to use as a comparison.  I haven’t included players with high conversion rates that were not significantly different than last year.  Last year plenty of midfield players finished with a varying level of conversion rates  so in itself this could mean nothing.  Having said that most of this group have better conversion rates  than the vast majority of midfielders finished with last season.  However I’ll list them anyway and you can make of it what you want in any transfer decision.

Ill start with Payet who has 7 goals with very little in the way of shooting stats.  I’ve commented on how he seems to have been either luckily or using good judgement  for rebounds to get his goals.  A Ayew (8goals) Wijnaldum (9 goals) Alli (7 goals) I can also make the same comment about.  Firmino (6 goals) is another example although he has played as striker so the rate is more understandable.

Those players who’s conversion rate that is significantly worse than the premier league midfield average and significantly worse than their individual conversion rate last year

There are 3 players in this category.  The hope is that they are underperforming on their ability to score and will improve their scoring rate to the end of the season.

Alexis Sanchez

He may have 6 goals but these have come in 3 games out of the 20 played.  Last season he scored 16.  He has consistently had some of the best quantity shooting stats.  I watch some games and can’t believe he hasn’t scored.  His conversion rate is half that of last year.  Surely things have to improve for what is a world class player.

Mane

Hard to believe that the scorer of 11 goals last season has only scored 3 this season.  This season it looks like he couldn’t hit a barn door if he tried.  His conversion rate is a quarter of last season.  Surely things have to get better or is he just hopeless?  The problem in addition though is that his place is under threat and gametime at risk.

Walcott

Another player where this maybe irrelevant as his place is under threat in the team.  At the moment he’s scored a 4 goals which is a goal less than last season despite playing 3 times the minutes to date due to his injury last year. To make it worse this season a number of his minutes have been as striker.  His conversion rate though is a third of what it was last season and like Sanchez  I often wonder how he hasn’t scored after watching a game.  Not in the Sanchez class but hard to believe it can continue as it is.

Those players who’s conversion rate that is significantly worse than the premier league midfield average

Only really Antonio of West Ham who I want to illustrate has a very low conversion rate for someone who gets into the box so efficently.  He has reasonably good quantity stats so hopefully the goals will continue to come and at a better rate

Thats it.  I hope you found it interesting.  Please keep the comments coming.  I would prefer them to be constructive btw!

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