fantasy premier league players – searching for Mr Consistency

Here’s a very short post where we look for the fantasy premier league players who have performed at a top level consistently for the last 3 seasons.  We assess their prospects for next season at this early stage.  You’ll probably have guessed them before you open the article.

fantasy premier league players – searching for Mr Consistency

How we assessed the players

Our assessment was simple.  Effectively we look for attacking players who had consistently good returns over the last 3 seasons.  We did this by assessing them on a minutes per FPL point basis.  Obviously the less time it takes to earn an FPL point the better.  To qualify the players had to have produced excellent returns without too much variance in each of the years.  You won’t be surprised at the results.

Who missed the cut?

Hazard missed it as firstly he’ll be injured at the beginning of the season but him and Costa both had less exceptional  seasons in 2015/16.

Lukaku missed out as his 2014/15 season wasn’t great at all.  Even last season could have been a push.  Coutinho was the same, his 2014/15 season wasn’t great.

Alli and De Bruyne would have qualified but both have only had 2 years in the league so missed the cut for that reason.  I have to say 3 years is a bit arbitrary but that’s the rule I set so I’m sticking to it

So who made the cut?




3 players.  Kane, Aguero and Sanchez.  I said you wouldn’t be shocked.

Here’s there minutes per FPL stats

fantasy premier league players

All 3 have produced top of the range stats for the last 3 years.  Lets assess their prospects at this early stage for next season.

Kane

His incredible finish to last season probably means that he will be the first name on many an FPL managers team sheet when the FPL game opens again.

It seems the only impediments will be price, rotation and Wembley.

Harry Kane’s price could be anything.  Often the argument is that by not having someone in the very high price range is you can strengthen your team overall.  However that does ignore the captain effect.  Harry Kane last season returned a goal or assist in 63% of his games and returned 10 or more FPL points in 30% of his games.  He was virtually top in both of those stats.  These stats make him a perfect captain choice.  Consistent and explosive.

Rotation could be an issue.  It’s hard to see him playing in the domestic cups but he could see some rotation to allow Champions League games.

Wembley is the other unknown.  I imagine Spurs will shorten the pitch to enable them to continue squeezing the opposition as they like to do.  This should mitigate the energy sapping effect of Wembley.  However history has shown that change of venues can need adjustment and last season Spurs were definitely stronger at White Hart Lane than away from it.

Even with those factors he’s going to be very hard to ignore

Sanchez

Like Kane his season ending heroics are going to have him in the mind of every FPL manager.  However Sanchez as an FPL option has some issues for us to grapple with.

The obvious one is that will he be with Arsenal?  The Europa League and battling it out for 4th isn’t befitting of him at least in his agents mind I imagine.  Interest from City and Bayern Munich gives him the opportunity to challenge for titles and the Champions League.

The second issue is whether Arsenal buy a top quality striker and what effect will that have on Sanchez’s returns.  This season they have had Giroud and Welbeck play the role.  2 very different players.  Sanchez himself has also played striker.  The pursuit of Monaco wonder kid Mbappe shows they are serious in fixing the issue and it remains to be seen what effect that would have on Sanchez’s returns.

Formation is the last consideration.  Wengers traditional 4-2-3-1 saw Sanchez too wide in the left of the attacking midfield 3 for someone of his cost.  The 3-4-2-1 formation used at the end of the season sees him and Ozil closer to the striker and more central.  That hugely benefited Ozil as well as Sanchez.  It also saw a remarkable improvement in defence so it’s hard to see it not continuing.

The 1 big plus is that rotation shouldn’t be a huge issue.  I just can’t see Wenger playing Sanchez in the Europa League.  The travelling and opposition, especially in the early rounds,  would just make it such a waste of his energy.

Sanchez on last seasons evidence is a great captain option.  He returns a goal or assist in 60% of his games.  He’s also explosive returning 10 or more FPL points in 28% of his games.

Aguero

Another player who finished the season strongly.

Despite it being characterised as an unsuccessful season his returns were still good.  Just not Aguero good.  While a little off Kane and Sanchez in minutes per FPL point his consistency return rate at 60% was good .  What he lost from his previous seasons was the 10+ FPL point returns.  This was still a respectable 21% but some way off Kane and Sanchez.  Over £12m for someone who doesn’t score big often enough was a common complaint of FPL managers

Next season is going to be interesting.  It seems that Pep is going to play both him and Jesus in the same team .  The last game of the season also saw Aguero central in a front 3 with Jesus on the right.  That suited Aguero but the arrival of a player for that RW position in Bernardo Silva brings into question whether that will continue. Aguero playing behind Jesus makes him a questionable choice if it means Jesus will suddenly start getting the tap ins.

The price that Jesus turns up with is also going to be a factor in the decision whether to go with Aguero.  Although I can’t see them being £4m apart as were last season how much their prices converge could have a very significant effect on who you choose.

Rotation with Pep in charge and the Chairman stating he wanted to go for the quadruple is a major factor.  If Ihenacho leaves that certainly won’t help the situation for domestic cup cover.  Although you imagine a replacement will be sought.

So what does this mean?




So all 3 players on the basis of last season stats in isolation have a compelling case to make it into our FPL teams for 2017/18.  However none will be cheap.  Kane and Sanchez have been consistent and this season particularly explosive scorers ideal as captain candidates.  Aguero less so especially on the explosive front.

However Kane and Aguero have some specific issues to confront.  Sanchez less so but will he even be at Arsenal?

It all makes interesting stuff to ponder for the new season especially with so many top quality premium players to choose from.

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