Here’s our regular contributor to the site Rob Reid (the FPL Vet) on navigating the fantasy premier league blank gameweeks of 26 and 28 and beyond. Rob finished with a rank of 4,701 last season 2015/16 and 7,810 the season before.
fantasy premier league – Rob Reid (the FPL vet) on navigating the blank gameweeks and beyond
A DISSECTION OF GAMEWEEKS 26-32
The incoming blank gameweeks are a big FPL headache, with the situation this year slightly more dire with the abundance of blank fixtures in Gameweek 28. The FFG calendar gives you a nice rundown so I’m not going to repeat this in too much detail. In this article, I’m going to focus more on transfer targets and a possible strategy to get you through these weeks and also the weeks that follow. For many of us, this will take us up to Gameweek 33 where (if you saved it) you may be considering playing your Wildcard in preparation for using your Bench Boost chip in the Double Gameweek 34. As ever, this is heavily opinion-based and I hope it gives you another take on things.
At present, 8 teams are guaranteed fixtures in both GW26 and 28, with Lincoln City’s amazing Turf Moor upset confirming the Liverpool vs Burnley Match for GW28. This adds these 2 teams to the 6 we already knew and had been planning around. So the teams are: Bournemouth, Burnley, Everton, Hull, Liverpool, Swansea, West Brom and West Ham. Despite the addition of these 2 teams, FPL managers still have a big problem as at present many of us won’t even be close to fielding a full 11 players from these teams in GW28. Throw into this GW26 with blanks for Arsenal, Man City, Man Utd and Southampton and we then have several players who have 2 blanks over 3 weeks. Do we hold onto these? Man City have also thrown another spanner into the works by declaring that if they win their replay against Huddersfield (which looks a good bet) then their prospective GW28 fixture against Stoke will be moved into GW27, creating a DGW for them and Stoke that week. As if we didn’t have enough to think about…
ANALYSING THE FIXTURES
I’ve decided to focus on these 12 teams in a chart below that looks at sales prospects for the 4 clubs with double blanks and also buying prospects for the 8 clubs with guaranteed fixtures in both weeks. I’ve taken a long term view of this and looked right through to GW32.
I’ve rated fixtures via colour code to identify them by difficulty. Let’s see how this affects the transfer prospects, in and out.
TRANSFER PROSPECTS – SALES
The obvious targets for transfers out at this stage are the 4 teams with double blanks + any deadwood you have in your line-up (injured players, players who aren’t getting in the team.) I won’t touch on the latter as of course this differs from team to team but we’ll have a look at the 4 teams with double blanks.
Arsenal
Sanchez is the key player here. He is a core player and is in best form of his Arsenal career, as well as being a treasure trove of FPL points and heavily owned. The problem with him is the double-edged sword that is his price. It’s a lot of money to be leaving on the bench for 2 out of 3 gameweeks and his GW27 is a tough trip to Anfield. On the other side of the coin, many of us will have purchased him early in the season so we stand to lose team value if he is sold now, though granted his price will drop and we’ll likely get close to breaking even on this later. Tough call this one – what I would say is that if you do sell him, have an obvious route to buy him back. He is gametime secure now that Arsenal are almost certainly out of the UCL and his explosive point scoring could prove costly to overall rank. As for the other players? In my opinion, I would sell them unless the player is Cech and your second choice goalkeeper is going to play GW28 – it would be a wasted transfer in this case. Fixtures afterwards are pretty good from GW31. GW29 vs WBA or 31 after the City fixture look good buyback points for Sanchez.
Man City
The attraction of keeping City players is a choice GW27 fixture away to Sunderland combined with a potential double-up against Stoke that week. The negatives are possible UCL enforced rotation and some horrible fixtures in GW29-31. If you’ve got City players at the moment, I’d hold them, purely on the basis of GW27. Aguero also looks a great captain option for GW27, possible even a tempter for the Triple Captain chip. Sterling is also in good form with 8 returns in the last 10 gameweeks. Defenders are also an option as the possible 2 GW27 fixtures have good clean sheet potential – I’d even consider Caballero for extra save points. After GW27, they are prime sale candidates though. Also have a look at the earlier FFG article this week on City options here.
Man Utd
Ibrahimovic is the core player here and a juicy GW27 fixture versus Bournemouth is a good reason to hold him. However, as with Sanchez, it’s a lot of money to be sitting on your bench for 2 out of 3 weeks though his price rise hasn’t been as dramatic as Alexis due to his suspension at Christmas. Dare to Zlatan? As for the other players, Man Utd defenders have provided decent returns but with them still being involved in 4 competitions rotation may become an issue between GW29-32. On this basis, they should be high on the selling list, unless it is David De Gea and your second keeper is playing in GW28.
Southampton
Saints assets have not proved as popular in recent weeks due to their inconsistency. Injuries and the sale of Jose Fonte has cast question marks about possible defensive returns, although Yoshida has still retained his status as a good cheap defensive filler. In attack, new signing Gabbiadini has hit the ground running and looks a possible 3rd striker option for later in the season, especially with 2 double gameweeks to come later on. With 2 blanks in the next 3 though, I can’t see any reason to buy him now though. From a funding point of view, Yoshida could be held but Saints players should be high on the For Sale list otherwise.
TRANSFER PROSPECTS – PURCHASES
For the next three weeks, it’s a brave manager who looks beyond only purchasing from the 8 clubs with both GW26 & 28 fixtures and Man City players for GW27, provided they win their FA Cup replay.
Bournemouth
Difficult fixtures, recent poor form and unpredictable team selection are big negatives here. There are a couple of ok cheap options though in Fraser and King. Stanislas being on the bench is certainly frustrating.
Burnley
Fixtures look horrible – 4 consecutive away fixtures for one of the worst away records in the division doesn’t inspire confidence. The 20% odd of managers will be pleased Heaton has a GW28 fixture though and there some cheap 3rd striker options – Barnes possibly being the standout.
Everton
Some very appealing GW26 & 28 assets here. My favourite FPL player Lukaku looks a must-have and has been passed fit for GW26 after an injury scare. Some good options at the back as well. GWs30 & 31 look tricky so this may be a good time to sell Lukaku, releasing funds to buy back another prime asset. Here’s a link to the FFG Everton team focus article
Hull
Much improved under new management, some good budget options especially in defence. Jakupovic is a great cheap keeper option and Robertson looks the best defensive option in terms of price and gametime. I’m not convinced by any attacking prospects.
Liverpool
A welcome addition to GW28, despite a tricky GW27 fixture at home to Arsenal. Take your pick from Mane, Coutinho, Firmino, Lallana and even Milner depending on your budget. I wouldn’t write off a defender either looking at the GW26 and GW28 fixtures. GW26 versus managerless Leicester (post-UCL away trip) looks primed for some attacking returns. See the FFG focus article on the Liverpool midfielders
Swansea
Also seeing an upturn in fortunes under new management, the obvious one here is Gylfi Sigurdsson. As mentioned before, he’s the FPL managers dream midfielder, you probably just want to get GW26 away to Chelsea out the way. Nice fixtures after that. Carroll would be a cheap midfield option and Llorente is a cheaper striker worth considering. Defence still looks a bit suspect, though there are some cheap options here. Good fixtures from GW26 with only Spurs in GW31 to worry about.
West Brom
The defenders have been the stand-out options in the last few weeks though more so for their attacking returns. McAuley has been somewhat fortuitously in the goals and Brunt always has good assist potential. I’d be wary of over-committing though – GWs 29&30 are horrible fixtures. Phillips had been the standout option out of midfield and attack, but he’s on a run of blanks at the moment. Chadli would be a good option if he wasn’t such a magnet for substitution.
West Ham
A tricky home fixture in GW27 vs Chelsea but otherwise things look pretty favourable until GW31 vs Arsenal. Suspect defensively, so attacking options look better – Antonio, Snodgrass, Lanzini and Carroll are the standouts here depending on budget and position.
Stoke
I’d certainly hang on to your Stoke players at the moment in case of a GW27, though remember they’ll blank the following week in the event of a double. Grant could be a really nice GW27 player if you have him. I probably wouldn’t be buying any in though and would focus on City players for the potential double.
MY THOUGHTS
I plan to sell one or both of Sanchez and Ibrahimovic at some stage, with a strategy to at least buy Sanchez back in GW29. I also plan to have Aguero for GW27 should City win their replay. I’ve worked out a couple of ways to do this without taking a hit, but it would mean either not having Lukaku until GW28 or selling Ibrahimovic in GW26 and possibly getting stung by his nice fixture in GW27. Ownership for both players is high and I can’t see a way to hold them both without selling Costa or taking a hit in both GW26 and GW27 which I am reluctant to do. I am however fortunate to have 2 Stoke players for the possible GW27 DGW, they’re both staying put for the moment.
I’m wary of over-committing to GW28. At present, I have only 4 players for GW28 (one of whom is Stanislas) but I have 2 free transfers this week, which will take me to 6 and my GW28 transfer which puts me at 7. I would consider a 4pt hit in GW28 to get to 8 but I’m reluctant to go beyond that having considered the GW29-32 fixtures. In terms of who I’m aiming to get for my GW28 line-up? The following look like a good core: Jakupovic, Everton defender, WBA defender, Liverpool midfielder, Sigurdsson, West Ham midfielder, Lukaku. I’m planning my transfers towards this with the exception of buying Aguero for GW27. Who else you choose depends on your budget and remaining free transfers, but I’d be wary of over-committing on WBA and Burnley in particular because of their fixtures afterwards.
Finally, a word on Wildcards and Chips. I’ve noticed on social media that some managers are hitting Wildcard to get through this period. I can see the virtue in this, but I’m still convinced that the better strategy is to hold until later in the season. GW34 looks to be where the first bigger Double Gameweek may be placed, with GW37 the other likely slot with possibly a small one squeezed in somewhere else. The week before the biggest DGW looks the best option to Wildcard and then Bench Boost the following week. I’m wary though if this is GW37 as I can see several teams (Chelsea in particular) employing rotation by this stage. The other DGW is an obvious Triple Captain target – Sanchez looks primed for this seeing as Arsenal have 2 DGWs to come and will likely be fighting to the death for a UCL spot. GW27 is tempting with Aguero though…!!!!
Thanks for reading folks and I hope this is of interest. Best of luck this week, whoever you go for!
Thanks Rob for this excellent article and good luck this week. Rob normally tweets his team so I will retweet it when he has done so.
