Here’s another excellent article from our regular contributor Rob Reid (also known as the FPL Vet) on Navigating the Midfield Minefield in FPL. This is part 1 of a 2 part article. Rob has an excellent FPL pedigree. He finished with a rank of 4,701 last season 2015/16 and 7,810 the season before.
Navigating the Midfield Minefield
As we enter the season’s latest international break, I’ve decided to follow-up last months article on defence with an article on midfield. I’ve identified this as a key area at the moment for a few reasons. It looked like we’d started to turn the corner defensively until last week’s paltry 1 clean sheet. Similarly, in attack – it seems we can rely on Aguero, Costa, Lukaku and to some extent Defoe but we’re getting little consistency from elsewhere. Midfielders however are providing us with regular returns – indeed 10 of the 15 highest scoring players in the game are midfielders at the moment. It is therefore prudent to look at this area closely to see if: 1) this is chance or a theme that’s going to continue and 2) look at a an ongoing strategy to try and maximise returns from this area. So here follows a bit of statistical analysis along with a healthy dose of opinion for you to consider over the upcoming FPL-free weekend. I hope you enjoy!
I’ve decided to break this article up into 2 parts. 8 of the 10 top-scorers and 9/10 of the highest owned midfielders come from the EPL’s current top 4. So, in Part 1 I’ve decided to look at the these four teams plus the 5th and 6th placed teams – ie The Big 6. In the second part, I’ll look at the fortunes of midfielders from the other clubs, possible enablers from these teams and lower budget players to put on the radar to give us the funds we need to get these players from The Big 6. I’ll also talk a little bit about team value in Part 2 and the challenges we’re facing with this.
Part 1 – Tracking the Big 6
First off, let’s look at some basic statistics. The Top 4 are the highest-scoring teams in the league with over 100 goals between them already this season. That’s pretty high – they average over 2 goals a game (close to 3 in Liverpool’s case.) This is despite 2 of the top 4 regularly playing without a recognised striker and Man City having also had a short period where they’ve played without their first choice number 9. Therefore. it’s easy to see why we’re getting such good midfield returns from these 4 teams – tactics and form seems to suit this. I’ll examine each of the top 4 in detail first up, then look at Spurs and Man United as well. The latter are lagging behind the top 4 returns-wise, but there are stats that show potential so hence why I’ve included them in this first part. Let’s get cracking!
LIVERPOOL
Liverpool have been an attacking revelation this season as Jurgen Klopp has stamped his unique managerial style over the Premier League. They lead the way in shots and chances created doing all this without using a recognised striker most of the time. It is therefore no surprise that 4 of the top 8 scoring midfielders are Liverpool players. Philippe Coutinho is the highest owned midfielder in the game at 46.7% and with good reason. The £8.7m priced Brazilian has 5 goals and 6 assists, already nearly as good as his returns in each of his last 3 seasons. There’s no fluke in these statistics – he has more goal attempts than any other Liverpool player and is busy in and around the penalty area. He is a pivotal player in the Liverpool attacking structure. He is often the centre-point of their offence, has key set-piece responsibility and has racked up the most Bonus Points so far with 10. At this stage, there seems little reason to see why this from won’t continue.
Sadio Mane is the luxury option in the midfield at £9m with 6 goals and 2 assists to his name. He has less goal attempts than Coutinho but has better shot conversion and is busier in the penalty box. He doesn’t attract bonus points as readily however. Firminho is the third higher value option and he has 5 goals and 3 assists and is often played in the central ‘9’ role, which is reflected by him being the busiest in the box. Adam Lallana is the other regular premium option, priced at a more budget-friendly £7.1m, he has 3 goals and 5 assists but has had the least attempts of the 4 and spends more time outside the penalty box, sitting in a slightly deeper role. Both Lallana and Firminho have had similar bonus point success so far with 8 and 7 respectively.
There are other options – 4 goal James Milner is a budget friendly £6.6m, with penalty duties although a less advanced wing-back role. Henderson, Can and Wijnaldum also boast recent attacking returns.
Fixture prospects – very friendly over the next few weeks, ranking 3rd in last weeks FFG Fixture ease schedule. No Euro fixtures so at little risk of rotation in this respect.
Conclusions – Liverpool midfield coverage is absolutely essential in my opinion. You could pick any of the first 4 realistically, but not owning Couthino is dangerous at the moment with his high ownership. I can certainly testify to this as he is hurting my ranking every week at the moment, with only other squad issues preventing me from buying him. There is also a strong case for a double up here with Lallana and Milner probably the more appealing from a budget point of view.
CHELSEA
Antonio Conte has settled in well as Chelsea manager and a switch to 3-4-3 has certainly paid dividends. Chelsea’s rise to second place has been about 3 things: 5 consecutive clean sheets, the goals of Diego Costa and the resurgence of Eden Hazard. The £10.1m priced Belgian is their key midfielder from an FPL point of view. He is the leading points scorer in the game with 82 points (7 goals, 3 assists and 12 Bonus Points) and a rapidly rising 27.2% ownership. He is busy in and around the penalty area, registers a good number of shots and has set-piece responsibility. The worry with Hazard is inconsistency. Last season he was terrible and this season he blanked in weeks 4-7, co-inciding with Chelsea having 3/4 away fixtures adding fuel to the theory that he isn’t as effective away from Stamford Bridge.
Pedro (£7.2m) and Victor Moses (£5.6m) are the alternative options worthy of mention. The former has been in good form of late and has 2 goals and 5 assists this season. The worry with Pedro is gametime – he’s doesn’t often complete 90 minutes though has started the last 4. He was certainly in fine form in the Everton game. Moses has started the last 5 games and has found favour as a right wing-back returning a goal and an assist in this period. He’s certainly budget-friendly but doesn’t pack the attacking punch of the others.
Fixture prospects – the next 3 fixtures are tougher but the 5 after that are very appealing. Again no Euro fixtures so low risk of rotation.
Conclusions – Hazard looks a great pick again, though I can understand people being wary of buying him in the next 3 weeks and may wait until after the Man City game. Be warned though, his price has risen £0.2m already this week and if he returns over the next 3 games you may be paying over £10.5 for him. Other midfield options are not as appealing and I reckon it’s better to focus Chelsea coverage on Diego Costa or picking up attacking full-back Alonso. The question is whether you have the budget to carry both Costa and Hazard. I would certainly advocate having one.
MANCHESTER CITY
The early season Guardiola steam train has gone off the rails somewhat in the league in the last few weeks. A great result against Barcelona in the UCL was followed by a stuttering draw against an improving Boro, hardly the league form of prospective Champions. City’s highest FPL scoring midfielder is £10.7m Kevin De Bruyne with 62 points (2 goals, 8 assist and 12 bonus points.) His goal attempts are similar to Eden Hazard but he is considerably less busy in the penalty box than his fellow Belgian.
Raheem Sterling started the season very strongly with 4 goals and 3 assists across the first 6 games. He has blanked in every game since however and was rested in the league last weekend. His overall stats look good – he has had more penalty box touches than any of his midfield team-mates and indeed any of the aforementioned midfielders at Chelsea and Liverpool, he just doesn’t have the returns to back this up. Add to this a plummeting price and he is a less enticing prospect at the moment.
City have 3 other prospects on the radar. David Silva has hit double figures for assists in his last 5 seasons, but has work to do if he’s going to match that this year. He has been less active in the final third this season when compared with his teammates and with previous years, £8.7m looks a hefty price tag. Nolito has 3 goals and 2 assists so far this season but is struggling for regular gametime. If he could get this, then he could prosper but again at £8.7m it would be a big risk. Finally there’s Gundogan, the budget option at £5.8m. 2 goals against West Brom and Barcelona brought him onto the FPL radars but bear in mind he has no real stats to back up long term form. He never managed more than 3 goals in a season at Dortmund, gametime is a concern and he lags behind cheaper options outside the top 6 in terms of goal threat.
Fixture prospects – 3/6 away coming up and 2 of the home fixtures are Arsenal and Chelsea so a mixed bag. Rotation is a risk as in an active group in the UCL.
Conclusions – Kevin De Bruyne is the standout option but if you have Sergio Aguero, then his price is the main stumbling block. If you don’t have the little Argentine, then KDB offers good alternative coverage. Other City assets look too risky at the moment, but Sterling if worth monitoring as his attacking stats are still quite promising.
ARSENAL
Ah, good old Arsenal. Always easy on the eye, plenty of creative threat, always a good source of reliable FPL returns. Clear as daylight yes? Or maybe not! First the good – 2 of the top 10 scoring midfielders are Arsenal players, with a third sitting 16th having played only 18 minutes in the season’s first 2 fixtures. Lets start with one of my favourite players, Alexis Sanchez. I think this guy is one of the best and most underrated players in the world, but putting personal thoughts aside he also has stats to back this. 6 goals, 4 assists, 8 bonus points and 4 double-figure returns make him an enticing captain prospect, though at a premium price of £11.4m with 24.4% ownership. Currently playing as a striker, his goal threat stats are unsurprising and previous season’s returns prove his consistency.
Theo Walcott has 5 goals and 3 assists this season and good goal threat, racking up more goal attempts than Sanchez this year. He also looks solid value at £7.8m with 12.5% ownership, looking a good differential at this stage. Mesut Ozil is also worth a mention with 3 goals and 2 assists, though at a heftier price of £9.6m. He’s a bit behind last season’s tally of 19 assists, where he was also a major bonus point magnet but the potential is there.
Now the bad stuff. As a team, Arsenal actually only sit 7th in terms of goal attempts, lagging behind the other members of the Big 6 and also surprisingly Southampton. Their conversion is pretty good at this stage, but this suggests that more stubborn defensive teams may cause them more problems – sound familiar Arsene?! Next up, Sanchez is a major injury doubt for GW12 after suffering a muscular injury on international duty. There are varying reports as to the severity of this at present – some sources suggest he still may be fit for Chile’s second match on Tuesday, others are saying that he could be out for up to 6 weeks. You’d also at some stage, expect Giroud to win back the central striking berth though this probably won’t affect his returns too much, if previous seasons are anything to go by. Finally, Walcott’s gametime has been reduced in the last couple of weeks – also due to injury. He looks fit again now, but this does raise the usual question marks about this explosive player.
There are other options available: Alex Iwobi is priced at £5.8m and has 3 assists this season, though there are serious question marks about his gametime. Cazorla and Oxlade-Chamberlain are also outside shouts but again both have gametime and injury issues.
Fixture prospects – Man United away next, then 4 better fixtures before City away- they are understandably ranked lower on the FFG schedule. Have UCL commitments – already qualified for the knockout stages but will be battling PSG for top spot.
Conclusions – One of Sanchez or Walcott look good options, injuries and form permitting. Sanchez’s injury is a huge negative though, and may also have a knock-on effect in Walcott. Conversely though, it may improve Ozil’s returns – last season, Ozil performed better from an FPL perspective when Sanchez was injured as he was given licence to roam further forward. Fixtures-wise – after Man United looks a great time to buy.
SPURS AND MANCHESTER UNITED
I’ve decided to put these teams in with the top 4 for a couple of reasons. First of all, despite slightly indifferent starts I expect the 2 of these teams still to challenge the top 4. Spurs are still unbeaten, are stubborn to beat and should see better returns now Harry Kane and perhaps as crucially Moussa Dembele are fit. Kane is a proven goalscorer, but Dembele is also a key linchpin – he may not offer much from a FPL perspective, but Spurs tend to perform better as an attacking force when he’s playing. Man United are an odd one. There’s plenty of class players there, it’s just they’ve not found the right blend yet under Mourinho. Stats-wise, they both sit high in terms of goal attempts though they both lack in key areas at the moment – both sides rank low in terms of shot conversion and Spurs rank low when it comes to creating big chances. These are aspects that have to improve to boost both their title and FPL prospects.
Let’s look at some players. For Spurs, you have Son, Alli and Eriksen. The latter 2 both have proven FPL pedigree while Son has shown some form while occupying the striker berth during Kane’s absence. Alli unfortunately is injured at the moment and his 3 goals and 1 assist don’t follow on from the returns he made in his breakthrough last season. Similarly, Eriksen is underperforming too with only 3 assists so far this season, a poor return for someone with key set piece responsibility. Both players are pricey at £8.2m and £8.1m respectively so are well off the radar when you consider the alternatives above.
Son is an interesting one. He compares well with the likes of Coutinho and Hazard in terms of penalty area activity, but lags behind in terms of goal attempts. His 4 goals and 2 assists all came in weeks 4-7 and he has blanked since. When you also consider that last season he managed 4 goals and 1 assist all season, this doesn’t exactly fill you with confidence either. He’s priced at a competitive £7.3m but if you’ve got him, he’s got to be on your sale list on the basis of recent form.
Man United on paper have a lot of FPL potential. Juan Mata is an inconsistent FPL performer from previous seasons, mostly down to him being in and out the starting line-up. His FPL performance so far is along similar lines, at £8.2m you need more than 2 goals and 1 assist. Anthony Martial’s reclassification as a midfielder this season looked enticing even if his price (currently £9.3m) was a bit high. Gametime is the issue here – if he gets regular minutes, he may start to return but his price is still off-putting even if this became the case. £8.2m Paul Pogba has netted twice this season and had good returns in Serie A last year. He’s not matched that this season but he has some good stats – in terms of goal attempts, he ranks alongside Kevin De Bruyne and Eden Hazard. Finally, what’s the deal with Mkhitaryan? This guy had amazing stats in the Bundesliga last year and can’t even get in the squad – another Shinji Kagawa?
Fixture prospects – United’s next 6 look tough with 3 away and Spurs and Arsenal at home. Spurs look a bit better, 4 good fixtures at home and 2 tough away days at Old Trafford and Stamford Bridge. Both teams are active in Europe and face a battle to reach the knockout stages of their respective competitions.
Conclusions – Neither side has a particularly enticing midfield prospect at this stage. Son, with his lower price point is worth monitoring in case he regains his form of weeks 4-7 but his shift back out to a wide area is likely to limit this. There is too much uncertainty about Man United at this stage to offer a safe option. Pogba could be an option is his returns improve, but other players at or around this price point look more appealing currently.
OVERALL THOUGHTS
Liverpool coverage is essential in my opinion. Couthino, with his high ownership and current from looks the standout option. Hazard is also arguably in this bracket, though I’d offer a bit of caution regarding the next 3 fixtures, based on his tendency to return less away from home. Then it’s a toss-up between Kevin De Bruyne, one of the Arsenal options or doubling up on Liverpool. Much depends on who you have up front, how you squeeze your budget and whether you want to go with an extra premium midfielder and cheap striker and favour 3-5-2 – I’ll examine this more in Part 2.
I hope you’ve enjoyed this article and found it useful. Comments welcomed and gratefully received as always!
Rob Reid
Thanks again Rob for this really informative article. Looking forward to Part 2
