Here’s an excellent article from regular contributor and commenter on the site Rob Reid aka Finlay 81 and the FPL Vet (hence the dog pics) who finished with a rank of 4,701 last season 2015/16 and 7,810 the season before. It focuses on his team selection and strategy for the early part of the season
fantasy premier league GW1 – Site regular Rob Reid outlines his team
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This article is about the selection process for my Gameweek 1 squad and the thinking behind it. I will go through my thought process by reviewing my performance from last season citing areas for improvement. I’ll set out my aims for this season and my starting strategy. I’ll then post my team and go through my thinking behind the selections. Finally there’s a short section as to who’s on my transfer radar for the first few gameweeks.
Review of last season
Overall, I was really pleased with my final ranking of 4701. It was my best season yet, and it was an amazing result after I was languishing around 800k at around Gameweek 17. I definitely got the second half of the season right – I planned my transfers correctly focusing on a steady core of high ownership players with differential picks in goal, defence and midfield getting me the gains I needed. I conserved transfers well and got the most out of the double gameweeks.
There is however always room to improve – if only the first half of the season had gone better, I might have been inside the top 1k! I definitely took too many points hits between GW8 and GW16 (some enforced by injury) and I was too passive in the transfers I made. I held on to players in poor form for too long and ignored lesser lights such as Igahlo and Vardy who were performing well. I did however still manage to build good team value in this period, every cloud and all that!
My aims for 2016-17:
1) Win my main mini-league – always my primary aim, this is a fiercely competitive league with multiple top 25k finishes over the 4 seasons we’ve run it. It’s going to be tough to retain the title this year.
2) Finish in the top 50k overall, maybe a bit modest based on last 2 years performance but this is a big game with millions of players so have to be realistic here.
3) Top 10k finish. This would be a huge bonus.
4) Top 250 finish in the FFG league – would go hand in hand with number 3…
5) Get through 5 rounds in the cup – this would beat my previous best of 4!
Initial strategy:
Build team value in the first few weeks using bandwagon and high ownership players as the core of the team. Aim for a Gameweek 8 wildcard in the 2nd international window, so my starting team will be planned for the block of weeks 1-7. Retain Bench Boost and Triple Captain chips until double weeks later in season. Use All Out Attack if injuries dictate. My captain strategy will focus on using sword captains on weeks where there is a clear split decision and shield captains where there is 1 outstanding option.
My 2016-17 start team:
So here it is: The highlighted players are the difference with my team btw
My value spread is based on scoring trends from previous seasons. This is based on using the 3-4-3 formation most weeks. So I initially planned to spend 9% value on goalkeepers, 25% on defenders, 36% on midfield with the remaining 30% on my strikers. I got close in the end!
This may seem a bit top heavy to some, but I firmly believe that strikers and 2 or 3 good attacking midfielders are going to be the core point scorers over the course if the season.
The Back 7:
I’d like at least 2 players from premium clubs, then I’ll look for value and gametime security in 3 and I’ll buy budget £4m players for the other 2 (likely my reserve keeper and a defender) Man U, Man City, Leicester all carry high ownership players so these may need covered. I’d also like to take advantage of teams with favourable fixtures.
Goalkeepers:
Only 4 pricing points this season makes selection a little more straightforward. Getting a player from a premium club for just £5.5m is hugely appealing. Good options in the £4.5 and £5m brackets as well and a possible £4m starter in Jakupovic of Hull I’m not going to look a gift horse in the mouth, Jakupovic is in to free funds for other areas, allowing me a premium keeper for my primary choice.
For my premium keeper it’s between De Gea and Courtois. Both are super keepers, I’m not looking for masses of save points but they allow me to cover a premium defence. I’ve gone for Courtois – I want Chelsea cover in defence and he’s the cheapest reliable way in. I just hope he doesn’t start this season the way he started the last – I had to sell him in GW2 last year after he got sent off in the first match!
Defence
Man U cover is an initial priority for my premium defender – good early fixtures and solid at the back last season, this should only get better under Mourinho. It’s between Shaw and Valencia for me. Valencia has been on fire in pre-season but I favour Shaw’s gametime security and he should also be good for some attacking points.
Next up is the lower end defenders. I’ve gone for 2 in the 4.5m bracket. My priority here is gametime security as players are more difficult to sell in the lower price brackets with less appealing choices. West Brom start with some good fixtures and I’m hoping The Pulis Effect continues at the back so McAuley is my next pick. I like Boro’s chances this season – they’re a well managed, well run club and have signed shrewdly over the summer. They’ve been soild at the back in the Championship for the last 2 seasons and although it’s a much tougher ask in the EPL, they have some nice fixtures at the start. I’ve gone for Boro’s vice-captain Friend who should be a reliable starter.
Next up I’ve taken a slight chance and gone for John Stones. He should start the first game with Kompany doubtful and a £5m entry point into the City defence is too tempting to resist. He also has high ownership so covering this is prudent. His gametime will need monitoring but I have ideas for this as I’ll state later on. Last it’s a cheap place filler to allow funds for other areas. Not many £4m players with possible gametime so I’ve gone for Smith of Bournemouth who has a good chance of being in the starting 11. He’ll be a bench-warmer initially but may be useful when Bournemouth have easier fixtures.
Midfield
Tough area this year. Lots of good options in the premium and mid-range price brackets and next to nothing in the budget 4.5-5m range. Also have high ownership to cover. Tricky. I’ve gone for 2 premiums, 2 mid-range and 1 top end cheap player. I’ve opted for 1 budget striker this year so this would allow me to rotate between 3-4-3 and 3-5-2 if needed. I would have liked 3 premium midfielders but as you’ll see in the striker section I’ve decided to gamble my funds elsewhere.
So to my premium players. My first pick is Riyad Mahrez. I was lucky enough to have him from GW1 last year and hopefully he’ll continue in a similar vein this year. He also carries high ownership so this is partially a covering move. Christian Eriksen is my second pick. I’ve not picked Kane and I’d like Spurs attacking coverage looking at their early fixtures. It was close between him, Lamela and Alli but I’ve gone for the Dane – he should be fresh after a summer off and was certainly in good form with a double figure assist count last year.
My worries with these premium players are not so much the players themselves but the depth of talent in this bracket. Payet and to a lesser extent Hazard could hurt me early on so I need to have a way to work these guys in if they hit form early. I considered De Bruyne, Silva and Nolitio at City but am not sure about their game time yet. Liverpool have some good options in Mane, Couthinho and Firminho but again same issue as City. I’m also a big fan of Mkhritayan and he would have been in my squad had he started in the Community Shield. Been a tough call here.
My 2 mid-range players are Redmond and Townsend. Both have made summer moves but have plenty of Premier League experience. I’m hoping Redmond starts up front for the Saints as he has in pre-season and I like Townsend’s prospects at Palace after a strong finish to last season. I did consider Delofeau and Tadic in these positions, indeed I would have preferred Tadic over Redmond but I didn’t quite have the funds. There’s certainly some good options in this bracket, one of the main reasons why I’m comfortable with 2 players at this price point.
Finally my budget midfielder. Nobody jumped out at me in the £4.5 or £5.0m range. I was tempted by Routledge as he had a strong pre-season, but I fear for The Jacks this year, especially after losing Ayew and Williams plus their fixtures aren’t great after GW2. Capoue is the standout £4.5m mid for me, he seems to have moved further forward in pre-season so could be a good shout. Again I fear for Watford this year though with their new manager. Fletcher and Kante are high ownership players in the budget range, but both are too defensive for my liking. So I decided to step up to £5.5m and pick my 5th midfielder from there. I narrowed it down to Fischer of Boro and Feghouli of West Ham. I went for the latter in the end so as not to gamble to heavily on having 2 Boro players in the team and also to try and soften any Payet damage – I’m hoping that if Payet does have a strong game, Feghouli will be involved along the way. He comes with a good pedigree from La Liga – here’s hoping for another breakout Algerian star this season!
Fowards
This was probably the area I’ve had least debate over – maybe I’ve been a it complacent and I hope this doesn’t bite me on the backside later on! There’s some high ownership players here and it’s impossible to cover them all in the squad without making big sacrifices elsewhere. I’ve gone for 2 of them in the end and tried to cover the others elsewhere.
Aguero was the first name in my squad this year. No brainer. Second up it was a straight fight between Kane and Ibrahimovic. Kane has proved reliable over the last couple of seasons and rotates well with Aguero as a shield captain. But you just can’t ignore Zlatan! He may be 34 but he’s still a class act and I reckon he’ll do well this year so I’ve gone for him and have Eriksen for my Spurs coverage. Vardy is the other higher ownership player I considered – I’m hoping Mahrez gives me the cover I need for him.
So to the budget striker enabling me to spend nearly a quarter of my total overall budget on 2 big guns! Some good options here and I narrowed it down to Negredo, Long, Austin and Gray. Negredo has a decent pedigree though Boro aren’t known for being high scorers and I’ve mentioned my reservations about having too much coverage from 1 new team. Long and Austin also have good previous but it’s still a bit unknown which one (or if both) will start and I already have Redmond. So I’ve gone for Gray – he was superb last year and has been on fire in pre-season. Burnley have tricky fixtures at the start but I can go 3-5-2 if my 5 midfielders all get good game-time so I do have some flexibility here.
On the Radar
I’ll be keeping an eye on Payet and also the Arsenal midfielders from Week 2. Sanchez is always a good option but would be difficult to work in, Ozil is more accessible. I’ll also be watching the Arsenal defence from Week 3 – there’s a potential bargain here with Mertesacker and Gabriel injured, Holding or Chambers could figure here. The Liverpool midfield is also on my radar as is the Everton defence. Let’s see what happens and where the bandwagons are!
I’ll be starting Gameweek 1 with Feghouli, McAuley and Smith on the bench with Aguero as my captain. That’s it folks – I’ll keep you updated how my plan goes through the season. Hope you’ve enjoyed this and looking forward to your comments. Good luck everyone for the new season. Most important of all – enjoy it
Thanks Rob good luck to you and thanks for your contributions
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