fantasy premier league strategy – Stephen Toumi continues his “think differently” series with 4-5-1 and 5 premium midfielders

Here’s regular commenter and contributor to the site Stephen Toumi with his 8th fantasy premier league strategy article.  He continues his “think differently” series looking at the 4-5-1 formation with 5 premium midfielders

 fantasy premier league strategy – Stephen Toumi continues his “think differently” series with 4-5-1 and 5 premium midfielders

In my “Think Differently” series, I have highlighted key attributes in past articles to help me succeed during this FPL season. The first attribute I have practised is patience. It’s an important characteristic, as a fantasy manager we approach the season as a marathon, not a sprint. Sometimes that knee jerk transfer or potential price rise doesn’t pay off. Second, I continually remind myself to accept change, as the FPL game is a very dynamic. While consistency on the pitch rewards us handsomely, measured risk is acceptable. Heading into the holiday period I shift my thinking to a 4-5-1 formation, to take advantage of a resurgence in the midfield.




Harry Kane and Spurs

Over the first 12 gameweeks I have struggled with Harry Kane (£12.8), leading the forward line in a 5-2-3. Missed captaincy points in GW4 and GW13, as I vice-captained him, didn’t boost my confidence in keeping the Spurs man. While his underlying statistics were near the top, Spurs form at Wembley against seemingly weaker teams was dismal. The die had been cast, Kane was to be sacrificed to bolster a 5-man midfield.

Holiday planning began ahead of Gameweek 12, looking for an exit strategy on my Spurs assets; Christian Eriksen and Harry Kane. With just 4 returns in 12 fixtures, Kane would be the linchpin required to buy into the premium midfielders. Eriksen hadn’t posted an assist since Gameweek 2 and no returns in 4 weeks, his time was up.

fantasy premier league strategy

Chelsea and beyond

With Mohammad Salah, Richarlison Andrade and Pascal Groβ already featuring in the starting XI, the introduction of Eden Hazard strengthened an already prolific midfield. Kane was replaced by Chelsea teammate, Alvaro Morata who’d returned attacking points in GW10-12. Both moves paid dividends in Gameweek 15, as Hazard (captain) and Morata combined for 38 points, which proved to be the difference between a red and green arrow.

Looking beyond the newly acquired Chelsea assets, it was time to evaluate Jamie Vardy, since introducing him in Gameweek 6, returns have been few and far between (3 goals, 1 assist). With £1.3 ITB and 2 FTs heading into Gameweek 16, Vardy has been running on borrowed time but has favourable fixtures; new/sou/CRY. Releasing Vardy provides the necessary budget to bring in form midfielder, Aaron Ramsey, 2 goals, 6 assists, 7 bonus points in his last 7 games. Arsenal have scored 12 goals in the last 5, which makes Ramsey, at £7.2, viable considering their upcoming fixtures through early February.

fantasy premier league strategy

The other option under consideration is doubling up with the Liverpool attack. Salah is currently owned by over 54% of fantasy managers, which won’t help the ascent up the overall ranking. The addition of Sadio Mané (£9.4) or Philippe Coutinho (£8.9) would help to give an advantage when Liverpool return attacking points. A favourable  run of fixtures through December; EVE/WBA/bou/ars/SWA/LEI/bur.

fantasy premier league strategy

The budget forward requirement

Up front it becomes a budget pair of forwards, partnering with Morata. Callum Wilson is already in place, but hasn’t performed since his hat trick in Gameweek 12. Intentions were to add Oumar Niasse (£5.0) after his Gameweek 10 performance, but a 3-game suspension appears to have him out of favour with Sam Allardyce, who seemingly favours Dominic Calvert-Lewin (£5.2). I don’t expect to start either budget option on a regular basis in my 4-5-1 formation but want to make sure my third forward is a regular starter.

Shaking up the defence

The final piece of my 4-5-1 requires moving a premium defender, for a budget option. With £29.5 still wrapped him in defence and enough budget defenders featuring for their respective teams, I can tap those funds to finalise my midfield. Initial thoughts were to drop Sead Kolasinac, but his recent performance, as well as upcoming schedule has turned my attention to Kyle Walker. At £6.6, he’s the second more expensive defender (behind Marcos Alonso) and Man City haven’t looked especially good defensively. Just one clean sheet in the last 6 games and just 1 assist in the last 7, reassures me I can get more mileage out of the funds being reallocated to the midfield, coupled with a budget defender.

fantasy premier league strategy




December and DGW22

Looking deeper into December, I will keep an eye on the return of Paul Pogba from his 3-game suspension, as Man United will be in a favourable run; STK/bur/tot/HUD/new. Glyfi Sigurdsson is another £8.0 midfielder, who has flourished in the past 4 games (29 points) and appears to be another “Allardyce guy.”

Acknowledging the first DGW of the season, Harry Kane will remain in my plans Spurs will face swa/WHM in Gameweek 22. Rolling a free transfer into that gameweek will allow me to move the £12.8 forward back into the starting XI, at the cost of a premium midfielder and budget forward. This will be the first opportunity I would consider tipping Kane with the Triple Captain Chip.

Long term planning continues to play a part in my FPL season. As has been seen through this series, plans can change based on a single performance. What appeared to be favourable last week, has suddenly changed with new players coming into focus. Practising patience and remaining flexible continue to play a major role in how I approach the fantasy game.

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FPL captain poll and transfer poll for GW16

December 7, 2017

fantasy premier league GW16 player picks by Rob Reid (the FPL Vet)

Comments

8 comments
  • Yaniv Salo

    Great article my friend, I love your current team!

    Reply

  • BEAST

    My team
    elliot , lossl
    christensen,mustafi,otamendi,davies, gomez
    sanchez,coutinho,gross,surman, cork
    aguero,kane, quarner
    2 transfer and 0.2 in bank…
    Any advice

    Reply

    • Yaniv Salo

      2 options:
      1. downgrade one of your defenders and gross for getting in Ramsey.
      2. Get Eden and Morata for Kun and Alexis maybee in this option I would take -4 hit and bring RIcharlison for Cork or Surman , or Ramsey if you will have the cash..

      Good luck,

      ps your defence is very strong (not GK’s) and midfield is very weak..

      Reply

    • Stephen T

      Looks okay, personally I don’t like Aguero/Kane pairing up top. Both players aren’t at the top of their game. Aguero just 1 goal in his last 4 and Kane, 2 in his last 6 games. I could do with one or the other, since most fantasy managers are holding Kane, I would stick with him, sell Aguero. Firmino and Liverpool are looking good, that would give you 3.0 to spend in the midfield. You could even look at Calvert-Lewin as a budget option and move Surman or Cork for a stronger midfielder, Ramsey has been in form or a punt on Sigurdsson if you can afford it.

      Reply

  • Adrian

    Hi Stephen

    Excellent article again, I’m always waiting for the next one.
    My team isn’t to far away from yours,
    POPE/ELLIOT
    KOLA/ALONSO/WARD/DANIELS/MARIAPA
    HAZARD/SALAH/RAMSEY/RICHALISON/RLC
    KANE/MORATA/DCL

    Ramsey was my transfer in this week, next I’ll be looking to get rid of Daniels and probably Ward as I already have Pope on goal.
    No money in the bank so I’m planing to get cheaper defenders to rotate well (maybe GOMEZ and Kenny)that would give me extra $0.9 to upgrade Ramsey to Pogba in 3 weeks.
    Not owning Coutinho scares me a little after his 18pt haul and UCL hat-trick yesterday.
    Any thoughts?
    Thanks for your response.
    Best of luck.

    Reply

    • Stephen T

      Kenny could be a good shout, however I am looking to Watford, supporter opinion aisde. I see you already own Mariappa and I wouldn’t double up on the Hornets.

      Sakho, at 4.9 is another defender I have had on a watchlist as Palace had a great run and under Hodgson might turn it around defensively. Hegazi, I sort of hesitate to say his name, but WBA might get back to some CS as well or Duffy from BHA, who offers the potential of CS and attacking returns.

      This week I carry 2 FT to GW16, Ramsey and Coutinho are top on my transfer list. Not sure I want to take a -4 or -8 to bring them both in, in conjunction with shipping Vardy and Kyle Walker out. I believe I will wait 1 more week on Ramsey and double up with Coutinho. The Liverpool attack looks quite impressive now, but we were saying the same about Man City just a few weeks ago.

      Reply

  • Deb

    my team
    courtois elliott gomez alonso mustafi sakho hunemeier ramsey loftus-cheek martial salah hazard kane rashford quaner .. any suggestions? i like picking players who are not present in the league I am in currently. everyone has kane, morata, richarlison, gross.

    Reply

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