fantasy premier league tips gameweek 38 – best picks

 

Hart

£6.9  Norwich H

team overall defensive rating 5

Home to Norwich has to be one of the more guaranteed clean sheets as only West Ham and Stoke have scored moreless from home.  I think City should put out a first choice defence in their last home game but Hart is your guarantee. 

 

Tremmel

£4.1  Fulham H

Overall defensive rating 13

Hard to pick a cheap goal keeper with a prospect of a clean sheet without doubling up on the defence so I’m taking a punt that Vorm wont be risked.  Fulham away from home haven’t been exactly a gold mine of goals, averaging less than a goal a game.   Tremmel offers good value at £4.1m.  The Swansea defence has conceded 23 goals at home and that’s a lower third ranked team.  They actually defend better away from home  but 5 clean sheets does show an ability to get you points and Fulham can be very poor away from home with 2 goals in their last 4 away games.

 

Demel

£4.0  Reading Home

overall Team defensive rating

West Ham at Home defensively are slightly better off than Swansea with 6 clean sheets and 20 goals conceded at home .   its 2 clean sheets in a row at home and only 2 goals conceded in the last 4 games at home.  However Reading are one of the worst teams away from home attack wise and apart from the  Fulham game   Adkins doesn’t really seem to have improved that.   A clean sheet is a real possibility here in my view 

 

Clyne

£4.1  Stoke H

Overall team defensive rating  11

Stoke away have only scored 12 goals in the entire season.  Only West Ham have scored less.  Southamptons defence has really improved home and away under the new manager and they’ve had 2 clean sheets in their last 6 games and only conceded 6 goals which is one of the better records in the premier league.  Clyne has good attacking prospects, secure game time and a good prospect of a clean sheet.   

 

Sagna

£4.7  Newcastle A

Overall team defensive rating 4

With 3 clean sheets and only 4 goals conceded in the last 4 games home or away, the Arsenal defence is one of the form defences now that the CB partnership has been setlled.  Sagnas attacking runs  and value still make him the best bet for me.  In contrast Newcastle have only scored 4 goals in their last 6 games.  Arsenal need to win to secure champions league football next year so motivation will be no issue whereas Newcastle are safe for the first time and may mentally be on a beach in the south of France

 

Carragher

£5.0  QPR H

Home to relegated QPR   this has to be a great option as a clean sheet.  Rodgers has promised rotation and did so in the last game at Fulham in defence but with Carragher retiring there’s no chance that he will be left out for this final home game.  QPR have only scored 2 in their last 6 games home or away.  Liverpool have only 3 conceded home or away in the same period.

 

Dawson

£4.4  Sunderland H

Overall team defensive ranking  9

Again another home game against poor quality opposition,  Spurs continue to concede goals despite having good underlying shots against stats and have conceded 8 goals in their last 6 games which is the same as QPR and Reading.  Sunderland however have only got Danny Graham and Wickham fit as stikers and are now safe. They have scored 8 goals in their last 6 games home and away though which is reasonable.  Spurs have to win to have any chance of champions league next year while Sunderland like Newcastle are safe for the first time.  I’m banking here on Spurs finally getting a clean sheet though to match their underlying stats.

 

Michu

£7.8  Fulham H

Underlying shooting stats ranking  2       points in last 3 games  13

The overall shooting stats midfield leader who’s played behind or as a striker all season appears to be ft and home to a Fulham side which has had its nightmare moments awayfrom home.  However they have only conceded 7 in their last 6 away games but in their last 2 home games to Reading and Fulham they’ve conceded 7 suggesting that all has fallen apart a little at the back.  For that reason I’m backing Michu to sign off on a high whether he’s a striker or just behind.

 

Bale

£10.7  Sunderland H

Underlying stats ranking   1   points in last 3 games 14

A bit of  slow down with 2 blanks in a row but against Stoke his underlying stats were fantastic and he did everything but score so there’s no worries in my mind.  Bale prefers to play away rather than at home but should surely get returns at home to a side that conceded 6 against Villa and 3 against QPR.

 

Nolan

£6.1  Reading H

Underlying stats ranking  4    points in last 3 games 9

Reading A one of the fixtures that fantasy premier league managers look out for every week.  Actually they haven’t been that bad conedeing 8 home or away in their last 6 but its 12 in their last 5 away games.  Nolan  never seems to get the rewards that his shots in the box numbers suggests he should but if ever he’s going to get the returns he deserves its in this game

 

Coutinho

£6.9  QPR H

Underlying stats ranking  11      points in last 3 games  22

Big points hauls at Newcastle away and Fulham away have brought him to all fantasy premier league managers attention.  Has also struck up an understanding with Sturridge and has got 4 assists in his last 3 games.  Should definitely play due to the fact that he arrived in January so hasnt been over played this year.  Interestingly Liverpool have scored more away goals than home goals with their counter attackstyle suited to playing away.  They have sometimes struggled in having to break teams down at home in a structured way.  Since Coutinho and Sturridge have arrived they’ve either scored well or floundered in home games.  QPR have conceded 8 goals in their last 4 away games so Im banking on them conceding a couple in this fixture.

 

Walcott

£8.9  Newcastle A

Underlying stats ranking  5    points in last 3 games 27 points

On fire at the moment despite not playing in his favoured central striker position. Still has been able to move in to a  central position though helped by Podolski drifting left.  Newcastle have one of the worst home records defenively over the season and have conceded 9 in their last 2 games at home.

Van Persie

£13.3  WBA A

Underlying stats ranking   1    points in last 3 games  20

Has had his wobble and now back being the top form striker he is.  Able to create chances with others as well as score.  Also has penalty and substantial set piece duties which gave 2 assists last week.  The WBA defence has conceded 11 goals in their last  6 games and 8 in their last 5 home games.   Most recently 3 against Wigan and then 4 away to Norwich of all people.

 

Aguero

£11.1  Norwich H

Underlying stats ranking  3      points in last 3 games  16

Total quality player who’s had his ups and downs this season but eveything  is improving now.  Only question is whether he starts.  Hard to see rotation on the last day of the season so as long as he recovers from his knock he should be in the lineup.

 

Sturridge

£7.4  QPR H

Underlying stats ranking  5    points in last 3 games 33

The man of the moment with 33 points in his last 3 games with great underlying stats to back it up.  QPR have conceded 8 goals in their last 4 games.  Liverpool

  aren’t always reliable at home but its hard not to see a few goals here and Sturridge being involved