fantasy premier league tips – Rob Reid (the FPL Vet) on “navigating the midfield minefield” part 2

Fantasy Premier League

Here’s our regular FPL contributor Rob Reid (the FPL Vet) with an excellent part 2 of his article on navigating the midfield minefield.  Here he looks at some alternative options outside the big hitters within the top 6 of his part 1 article

fantasy premier league tips – Rob Reid (the FPL Vet) on “navigating the midfield minefield” part 2

Welcome to part 2 of ‘The Midfield Minefield.’ In part 1, we examined the ‘Big 6’ and their midfield prospects. We came to the conclusion that Liverpool coverage was essential, Eden Hazard was nearing essential status due to his from and rising ownership and that a fit Alexis Sanchez or Theo Walcott are also good options. Kevin De Bruyne was rated as a strong option if you didn’t have Sergio Aguero and a Liverpool double-up was also suggested as a viable idea.

Of the players mentioned above, all of them price in the premium bracket. Adam Lallana is the entry level in the low £7ms up to double figure prices for Hazard, De Bruyne and Sanchez. This means that if you are serious about making these players the core of your midfield, you’re going to have to find some cheaper options to enable this. In this article, I’m first going to look at the cheaper midfielders, their form, statistics and prospects. I’m then going to look at some strategies for balancing this part of the team. Remember there’s a degree of statistical analysis to these articles but also a lot of opinion as well – I hope you enjoy. Here goes!

The Options

Of the 10 top ranked midfielders, the players ranked 9th (Capoue) and 10th (Allen) started the season priced at £4.5m and £5.0 respectively, indeed the latter dropped to £4.8 by week 8. This goes to show that if you get it right, a cheap enabler can be a real asset to your team. In previous years, budgets have been blasted by players starting the season cheap and hitting form. If you get these guys early, you’re quids in. But even later on at a higher price, they are still important as if their ownership gets high they’ll hurt you. Mahrez, Alli and Ramsey are all good examples from previous seasons, however one notable factor with these 3 players is once they found form, they didn’t lose it. If a price-boosted cheap enabler loses form, you sometimes have to be prepared to cash in the profit and look again somewhere else so it’s important to keep an eye on their returns.

Here’s a reminder of the top 10 midfielders from the stats tables in FPL by points scored:

fpl-gw12robreidtop10mids

Looking further down the list, there are a number of other £6m and under options sitting on the first page of the midfield scoring table. There are also some good prospects who are finding form or have had injuries who don’t make the first page. We’ll look at this on a player by player basis rather than club by club, but I’ll suggest alternative club options for each player where I feel there are others available.

Here’s the next 20 top points scoring midfielders.  The headings are the same as above of ownership, form and total points.  I’ll just talk about those outside the top 6 teams but it’s useful to see their relative points to others:

fpl-gw12robreid10mids5

fpl-gw12robreid10mids7

Etienne Capoue

The 9th highest point scoring midfielder so far. 4 goals, 1 assist and 11 bonus points in the first 5 games of the season is going to make you standout, whether your price is £4.5m or £10.5m. For Capoue, it was the former so hence why he picked up a massive early season bandwagon. The returns dried up after that though, with his price dropping £0.3m in the last 4 weeks, with it currently at £5.0m with a still whopping 37% ownership. There are no historic stats here either – coming into this year he had managed only 1 goal and 1 assist in his last 3 seasons combined! The clue to his early season form was a more advanced position in pre-season, but his stats tend to back a return to his form of previous seasons with markedly reduced penalty box activity and attempts in the last 6 gameweeks, one of his few penalty box touches being to spurn a great chance against Liverpool last weekend.

Fixtures – Watford are on a decent run of fixtures with 3 out of the next 4 at home before facing Man City in GW16.

Conclusion – the stats have dried up with no obvious sign of them returning to the golden period of weeks 1-5. I would’t usually advise selling such a high ownership player but now looks like a good time to cash in on his price, if you haven’t already done so! I don’t see a viable alternative Watford option, Amrabat and Pereyra sit next in terms of points scored. I’d focus more on the defender Holebas who has good attacking threat for a defender, once he’s served his suspension obviously.

Joe Allen

The Welsh maestro is ranked 10th at the moment for points scored from midfield. He blanked in his first 5 weeks, hence the drop in price to £4.8m but in the six weeks since has returned 4 goals and 2 assists, coinciding with an upturn in form for his club. He is another with little form to speak of in previous seasons, his best season coming in 11/12 when he returned 4 goals and 4 assists over the season for Swansea. He has traditionally been played in the holding role, but Mark Hughes has pushed him forward and it’s no surprise that his goal attempts and penalty box activity has nearly quadrupled in that period! He is a bit of a bandwagon at present and has 18.3% ownership and rising with a current price of £5.4m, still good value.

Fixtures – Stoke have 3 nice fixtures coming up, but then the next 5 hurt – Arsenal, Liverpool and Chelsea away; Southampton and Leicester at home.

Conclusion – if you bought him at £4.8m then you’re quids in, especially if you sold Capoue! Still good value in my opinion. Shaqiri and Arnautovic’s absence did affect him against West Ham. The big Austrian will be back for the next game provided he doesn’t get injured on international duty, the Swiss is a doubt. The other 2 players do provide alternative more expensive Stoke options at £6.3 and £7.2 but their stats are similar to Allen’s and they are both quite streaky players so I wouldn’t be tempted to pay more.

Nacer Chadli

The Belgian winger is currently injured after having minor surgery on his knee but is rated of having a good chance of returning for GW12. After sitting on the fringes at Spurs, he has certainly flourished under Tony Pulis with 4 goals, 2 assists and 8 bonus points between weeks 5-8. He blanked in weeks 9 and 10, but those 2 fixtures were Liverpool and City and he missed the GW11 Leicester game because of his surgery. He has good history – in 14/15 when he got a regular run, he scored 11 times with 6 assists at Spurs. His attempts and penalty box activity are decent, he doesn’t compare with the premium players in the big 6 but isn’t too far away. The down side is his £6.5 price tag is a tad hefty for an enabler. An alternative WBA player would be Matt Phillips, at £5.1m with 1 goal and 3 assists this season. His stats are slightly behind Chadli and gametime is a risk, but his price is far more friendly. I’ll also mention Darren Fletcher – no stats or returns here but simply as a cheap filler for £4.4m. He’ll play every week, so if you’re set on your 3-4-3 and just need a player to fill your squad he is an option.

Fixtures – West Brom’s next 5 are quite friendly with 3 at home, Hull away and only a trip to Chelsea in GW15 to worry about.

Conclusion – it’s a shame he isn’t a bit cheaper! Could be a good differential, but you may find yourself having to settle for a cheaper premium player to accommodate him. Much also depends on how quickly he regains his form after his injury – if he hits the ground running, he could generate a bandwagon. Could be a nice option in a 3-5-2.

Robert Snodgrass

A solid season so far for the £5.5m Scottish midfielder. 4 goals, 1 assist and 9 bonus points so far is pretty good an he has set piece responsibility. He does rank a bit lower for goal attempts and penalty box activity, but I do think some of this is down to Hull’s generally poorer attacking returns. Historically, he has had 6 goals in his 2 previous EPL seasons, but in 12/13 did also rack up a decent 9 assists. Hull don’t really offer another appealing option though and are really struggling for striking options at present with all 3 of their first choice strikers either injured or suspended. No real other appealing options at Hull to be honest at present.

Fixtures – 2 home and 4 away, but of these they only face Spurs of the top clubs.

Conclusion – could be worth a punt. He’s got good attacking returns so far but you’re relying a lot on the form of Hull as well, which let’s face it has been neither consistent or convincing.

Nathan Redmond

Many of us started with season with Redmond in our line-ups, £6m for a midfielder playing in the front 3 for an established EPL team looked too good to be true. He scored in week 1 which inspired confidence but then blanked for 6 weeks before scoring again in weeks 8 & 9. No assists, but loads of penalty box activity and attempts to speak of, indeed his penalty area activity is comparable with premium players from the Big 6. His price is an issue though so again, he’s not really a true budget enabler. There are other Saints options – Dusan Tadic scored 8 times with 13 assists last season, but hasn’t replicated this form this term and at £7.2m isn’t great value. Steven Davis is a more genuine budget option at £5.2m but has no real previous form or stats to speak of. Jay Rodriguez has recently come back from injury and netted 15 goals in 13/14. At £6.3m, he’d need to force his way into the team and find some form though.

Fixtures – both Merseyside teams at home are up next, then 3/4 away fixtures albeit with all of these 4 against bottom half teams. Also active in Europa League so may get some squad rotation.

Conclusion – another player who would be nice if he were just a bit cheaper. His advanced position and place in a top half team make him attractive, though only sporadic returns in previous seasons don’t necessarily hint at much consistency. Again might be good in a 3-5-2.

Junior Stanislas

Decent returns so far this season for the £5.5m Bournemouth midfielder – 3 goals and 3 assists in an injury hit season of just 6 appearances so far. Injuries limited him last season, and this is the big negative for Stanislas as his underlying stats are good. He has good set-piece involvement and is active in terms of creating chances and goal attempts. Bournemouth have been a bit hot and cold so far – for example I’m not sure how they managed to lose to Sunderland last weekend as they were on top for pretty much the whole match. But when they’re hot, there’s points to be had – like the 6-1 against Hull. It’s worth considering other options on this basis – Josh King at £5.4m with 2 goals and an assist is probably the most notable one. He does sometimes play up front and has started the last 3, though blanked in all of these.

Fixtures – next 3 aren’t great; Stoke and Aresenal away followed by Liverpool at home so not the best time to buy.

Conclusion – fixtures and ongoing fitness issues are the main negatives here. Can be an explosive player on his day and if he were to stay fit might be able to get a run of form.

James McArthur

The £5.0m priced Palace midfielder has started every game since GW3 and has 4 goals and an assist to his name – great returns for that price. He’s not renowned as being an attacking threat though – he’s already bettered his goal tally of all his previous EPL seasons and his stats back this, with less goal attempts than other players already mentioned. Palace do have plenty of other midfield options. Townsend at £6.1 is one of these – he’s highly ranked for goal attempts but most of these are from outside the box, hence why he’s only registered 1 goal and is one of the league leaders for hitting the woodwork! There’s also Puncheon at £5.3 those his goal threat has been more limited than Townsend and McArthur – he has 3 assists so far this season. Finally, also at £5.3m is Wilfred Zaha. Limited goal attempts, but very active in the penalty box to explain his 1 goal and 4 assist so far – probably the standout of the other options at the moment.

Fixtures – not the greatest. City next, then 2 away with Southampton at home before United and Chelsea.

Conclusion – at £5m is definitely worth consideration, though I’d actually be more tempted by Zaha at £5.3m if I was working on stats alone. Fixtures and Palace’s up and down form are a but off-putting.

Yannick Bolasie

1 goal and 4 assists so far is a decent start for the £6.1m priced Toffee. Fairly average stats in terms of goal attempts and box activity. Has started 8/11 so far but plenty of competition from Mirallas, Deulofeu and co. not to mention Ross Barkley possibly being the more appealing FPL prospect, although less budget friendly at £7.1m. Also if you’ve got Lukaku up front then this further lessens the appeal. Does have some FPL previous – 12 assists in 14/15 for example. Everton have been a bit hit and miss so far, but if they’re playing well then could get among the points.

Fixtures – 4 of the next 6 at home. A juicy home fixture vs Swansea next, but then the next 3 homes are Man U, Arsenal and Liverpool.

Conclusion – I’d probably look elsewhere on a price basis, especially if you have Lukaku already. Worth monitoring if a good run of fixtures comes up though.

Johann Gudmundsson

The Icelandic international winger looked impressive last week and is starting to come on to the radars following this. Potential is there – he had the joint most assists in the Championship last year playing for the relegated Charlton. He has started Burnley’s last 6 with a goal and 2 assists in his last 3 so maybe he is starting to find his feet in the EPL. He’s priced at £5.1m, though has below average stats to back these returns in terms of goal attempts and penalty box activity. Steven Defour at £6m has amassed the same number of points so far though has been injured recently.

Fixtures – it’s going to be tough all season for Burnley though they are stubborn against the big teams. 4/6 away with City and Spurs in that group isn’t easy.

Conclusion – a definite dark horse this one so you’d have to be brave to take a punt. Remember George Boyd a few seasons back though….

A Word on West Ham and others

That concludes my budget analysis, though I have to mention the West Ham options that don’t fall into either of my Big 6 or budget categories for completeness. Payet was pure FPL gold last season. He’s much more expensive this year, currently at £9.3m. 1 goal and 5 assists since GW4 is decent though I’d say he has to improve to compete with the other big hitters. Michail Antonio has been superb this season. £6.9 is more affordable, though he’s gone off the boil after 5 goals in the first 5 gameweeks after being shifted back to wing-back. He did return an assist in GW11 so he’s one to keep on the radar. Finally you have Lanzini, though gametime is the issue for the £6.4m Argentine. Next 4 fixtures are horrible for the Hammers as well – Spurs, Man U and Liverpool away with Arsenal at home as well. Ouch. I’ll also mention regular FPL favourite Gylfi Sigurdsson at £7.2m – if the Swans find some form, he’s usually among the points. There’s also Leory Fer £5.1m – he perhaps deserved a mention on the main list with 4 goals in the first 7 weeks but his gametime has been called into question under new boss Bradley. His stats and history also suggest this form won’t continue. Finally, there is a playing £4.3m midfielder at the moment – De Roon at Boro. He’s started 7 out of 11 and scored last week, but is a defensive mid. Could be a good bench filler at this price.

Overall thoughts on the cheaper options

I’ve always found this bracket to be a really tough call. Early season, Capoue looked like he could be a great long-term prospect, but he has dropped off the cliff in recent weeks. For me, taking everything into account if you got Joe Allen early I think he’s probably the strongest option at the moment. His rising price may put you off if you’re looking to invest now though. Snodgrass also looks a good shout based on form and fixtures – again slightly pricey though for an enabler at £5.5m but has better attacking prospects. For me, there’s no-one appealing at sub £5m so if you’re buying here you have to be going a cheap as you can using them as a bench filler, then concentrating on your other 4. Chadli and Redmond may therefore be appealing to you in this respect depending on what you’ve spent on your strikers.

3-4-3 versus 3-5-2

With midfielders ranking highly in the scoring stakes does this open the argument for 3-5-2? I guess what you have to weigh is will midfielder 5 outscore striker number 3 and how will your 4th midfielder rank in both teams. There is no obvious very cheap striker option this year – it looked initially like Diomande would be a possibility but he has since lost his starting spot and then got suspended. Anichebe at £4.5 could be one to watch after he scored well in Sunderland’s last fixture but he doesn’t have a notable FPL track record and Defoe is the far more appealing option for Sunderland. In the £5.5-7.5m striker range, the standout options are Defoe and Austin. Both have a good track record in FPL and I think are the most viable of the cheaper options at present. Most teams seem to be favouring 3-4-3 still, the 10 top FPL managers seem to back this as well.

Some Draft Options

Here’s a couple of draft options. I’ve used 2 out of Aguero, Costa (note the injury update at the bottom) and Lukaku for the main strikers and the slightly cheaper Austin for the 3rd striker in the 3-4-3. There’s also a 3-5-2 option. This leaves approx £32m for your defence which is quite a tight budget, but with defensive returns so poor at the moment is it wise to put too much into this area? I’ve selected Heaton, Pickford, Alonso, Dawson, Friend, Pieters and Amat to fit this at the moment. It’s pretty tough to get 2 big name strikers and 2 £10m midfielders without making some major sacrifices elsewhere. Similarly the 3-5-2 relies on that 5th midfielder outscoring either Austin or Defoe which looks a push at the moment. Whichever option you choose it’s a squeeze money-wise!

Option 1: Liverpool double-up, super cheap non-playing 5th mid
Lallana, Walcott, Hazard, Coutinho, Fletcher (strikers Lukaku, Aguero, Austin)

Option 2: Accommodating Hazard and Sanchez – tough on the budget this one with Allen needed as a regular 4th mid, with super cheap 5th bench-sitter again.
Sanchez, Hazard, Lallana, De Roon, Allen (strikers Aguero, Austin, Lukaku)

Option 3: No Aguero, KDB selected. Allen non-playing 5th mid, not quite enough budget to downgrade Allen to get Coutinho for Lallana but could downgrade Alonso to do it as well.
KDB, Walcott, Hazard, Lallana, allen (strikers Costa, Lukaku, Austin)

Option 4: Here’s a 3-5-2 – Anichebe likely to be the bench-sitter here, Liverpool double-up and Chadli playing every week.
Lallana, Walcott, Hazard, Coutinho, Chadli (strikers Costa, Aguero, Anichebe)

Finally – following on from part 1 some injury updates:

Sanchez – trained with a heavily strapped hamstring with the Chile squad yesterday. May feature on Tuesday though Wenger isn’t happy. If he’s fit I’d expect him to play GW12 against Man Utd, if it was a team in the lower half of the league I’d say he would be rested. Sanchez is a tough character but he does have a habit of trying to play through injuries so it may have an impact on his returns.

Hazard – came off injured on Sunday night in Belgium’s thrashing of Estonia. Martinez has reported that it is nothing serious and was just a kick on his calf. At this stage it looks like he’ll be fit for GW12 but keep an eye on team news – Friday of course is probably the safest time to buy. It’s also worth noting that Costa is a major doubt for GW12 – he was sent back to Chelsea by Spain.

Chadli – should be fit for GW12 based on Pulis’ latest update.

That’s it folks – I hope this has been interesting and provided some food for thought. I apologise if it’s left you with as many questions as answers as well, but such is the nature of this game, hope I’ve managed to help in some way. Comments welcomed and appreciated as always and best of luck for GW12!

Thanks Rob for the really insightful and detailed series on midfielders.  I’m sure it will help everyone in their upcoming transfers for GW12

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