So should we spend £14.0m of our fantasy premier league cash on RVP?  Is he really worth it?

This article exams the case for and against

Facts

So in the words of Rafa Benitez these are the facts:

1. RVP was last seasons  top points scorer in fantasy premier league.  Only Bale came anywhere near him

2. RVP was last years top goal scorer in fantasy premier league

3.  RVP had the most assists of any forward and only Mata and Hazard had more assists in fantasy premier league

4.  RVP started 35 games and came on as sub in only 3 games. Hardly rotated at all. 

5.  Only Suarez had more shots in the box than RVP last season

6.  Only Suarez and Lambert created more chances for team mates as forwards.

7.  RVP had the best shots in box conversion rate to goals of any forward

8.  RVP was the most captained player in fantasy premier league

9.  RVP had the highest % of games that he returned either a goal, assist on or 2 bonus points at 89% of games. 

10.  RVP is currently the most owned player in this seasons fantasy premier league at 40%

11.  RVP will be virtually rotation proof as the most forward player, heightened if Rooney leaves (ok this is an opinion)

9.  William Hill currently have him at 7/2 to be top goal scorer in the premier league.  Next by a mile is Aguero at 8/1 and far behind that Soldado at 14/1

However, here’s another fact.  RVP   is the next most expensive player apart from Bale (who we’ve assumed is going) is £11.0m.  £3m less than RVP

The case for and against

Essentially my argument is going to be captain security and risk vs the effect on your team.  I think that everyone will know by now the effect that RVP not being in their team will have.  Its exacerbated by the fact that in the top 6 of my teams with the best 6 fixtures are Man City, Arsenal, Spurs and Liverpool plus Chelsea have a double ame week.  Ideally you’d want coverage of all those teams given their fixtures.  The Chelsea double game week is two of the best fixtures you could ever imagine.  So the case for no RVP is as strong as it could be.  United on the other hand face a raft of difficult fixtures and are ranked 19th in terms of fixture ease for the first 6 games. 

I can’t emphasise the importance of captain picks.  Your captain picks will ultimately determine where you finish such is the power of the double points.  This was especially the case last year when template teams meant that you moved around in rankings significantly with good and bad weeks.  If youre going to buy RVP then youre going to be captaining him every week probably.  At that price you should be.  Without him then you’ll be facing 40% of fantasy premier league managers every week captaining him.  Can you imagine the stress of watching him in the home game against Crystal Palace not having him knowing that 40% of all other fantasy premier league managers do. 

If you dont have him then you’ve got to come up with an alternative captain pool.  The good thing though is that you’ll at least have enough money to purchase a decent captain pool.  My captain pool  (together with minutes per point and consistency %) on my team just completed (assuming Silva comes in and Dzekos out once the DGW and Ecudaor trip is out of the way) will be:

1.  Soldado  – N/A

2.  Coutinho – 13 mins per point, consistency 58%

3.  Hazard/Mata  – 14 mpp,  55%,  13mpp 83%

4.  Walcott – 12 mpp, 83%

5.  Silva –  17mpp, 34%

RVP’s by the way is 12mpp and 89%

Not a bad captain pool with all the top 4 challenging teams represented except notably Man Utd.  Kagawa was my option here but the Community Shield spooked me a little.

All of them apart from the Chelsea duo are also pretty nailed on to start and there’s also some good  stats especially some of the minutes per point but they just dont fill you with confidence like having RVP does.

My research on returns shows that the large  fantasy premier league point hauls generally come from players in the top 4 challenging teams playing the relegation threatened teams.  Funnily enough, despite defences being poorer away from home that doesnt seem to be the determining factor in choosing a captain.   So lets look at the first lot of fixtures and how the captain pool in my team matches up to RVP.

So lets establish a target set of teams which our players would have to face to be a viable captain choice.  The 3 relegation favourites at William Hill are unsurprisingly currently Crystal Palace  8/15  Hull 4/6 and Cardiff 11/8.  Lets also throw in last years 3 worst defences away from home in Sunderland, Fulham and Villa as extra targets and see what the 5 teams and the captains will face .  We’ll also add in a next best as an alternative and compare it to what RVP will be facing    

GW1.    DGW Chelsea –  so no issue there

GW2.    Cardiff v Man City.     Alternative:  Spurs v Swansea.    RVP home to Chelsea

GW3.    Man City v Hull City.    RVP away to Liverpool

GW4.    None.  Alternative:  Spurs v Norwich.  RVP home to Crystal Palace.

GW5.    Chelsea v Fulham.  Cardiff v Spurs.  RVP away to Man City

GW6.    none.  Alternative:  Villa v Man City.  RVP home to WBA

GW7.    Liverpool v Crystal Palace.  RVP away to Sunderland

GW8.    Chelsea v Cardiff.  RVP home to Southampton

GW9.  Crystal Palace v Arsenal. Spurs v Hull.  RVP home to Stoke

GW10.  Man City v Norwich.  RVP away to Fulham  

Doesn’t look too bad although there’s some scary  RVP fixtures.  Obviously its a little simplistic as it assumes there’s no alternative to RVP in the big games he faces which is obviously not the case but it does help illustrate the no RVP path. 

What am I going to do?

RVP was barely in the top 10 forwards last year of shots in the box per minute.  RVP is all about conversion.  He puts away a higher % of shots in the box than anyone.  The only forwards who were even close were Benteke and Lukaku and Dzeko although the last 2 had limited gametime.  The Community shield game said it all.  2 chances 2 goals.

I’m normally quite a conservative fantasy premier league manager and a huge RVP fan.  The conservative side of me says I must be crazy.  The last 2 years he was in my team for the whole of both seasons.   Not having him also makes it difficult to have players like Dzeko and Lukaku who are potential bargains but will be rotated as to have viable captain alternatives you need to avoid high risk rotation players.  However, given the alternative teams easy starts and the DGW my feeling at the moment is to not have him in.  Also there are players available who’s returns aren’t that different and some even who match his consistency.  However, the games when he does play will have me a nervous wreck but it feels the logical thing to do. 

The compromise is to ride out the difficult fixtures for RVP and assess the position then.  Getting £14m in to your squad though wont be easy and a 4 point hint may not even be enough to do it

To summarise, I’m thinking I wont  have him in at the start  but I’ll definitely be susceptible to a last minte wobble.  I’ll also be constantly thinking about when the best time is to get him in my team

I hope that  gives you some food for thought on what is probably the trickiest question of them all at the moment in fantasy premier league