fantasy premier league total expected goals to GW11

Here’s our look at some fantasy premier league total expected goals to GW11. We look at team stats and individual players by position stats

FANTASY PREMIER LEAGUE TOTAL EXPECTED GOALS TO GW11 

Here’s our fantasy premier league underlying stats review where we look at expected goals (xG) at a team and at an attacking player level to see what insights we can get for future player selection. We also look at expected assists (xA) at a player level. This is at a cumulative level up to GW11. Joseph Crilley reviews the numbers for each gameweek. The gameweek 11 part 1 review and part 2 review you can see here

Expected goals is a stat where the probability is evaluated that any given shot will end up as a goal.

Expected goals are based on a number of factors, such as where the shot was taken from and where the opposition defenders are at the time. The shot assumes it is being taken by someone of average ability in the league. To state the obvious , a shot from inside the 6 yard box in front of goal with no defenders around will have a very high probability it will end up as a goal.

In essence it shows you what should have happened rather than what has happened. Remember though we are only 6 games in so it’s difficult to make any accurate predictions from such limited data

The expected goals are now all wholly from the excellent site understat.com

I’m not going to look at them from a regression basis and compare them to goals and assists. While it can be useful with some players to look at over and under performance against the underlying stats, some players will perform way above or below the expected goals. Kane was a great example last season. If you expected regression you would never have got it as he was a lethal finisher. They should just be looked at as a way of evaluating a team or players goal or assist potential.

TEAM DEFENCE XG

 I’ve provided the xG conceded as a whole ranked by the least to the most. The teams have then been ranked home and away but without me giving the xG conceded for the home and away stats so it’s easier to follow. Now were only 11 games in so 5 or 6 games each home and away isn’t a great set of data as it can be distorted by the fixtures or sending offs etc but it’s a start

xG for attack has been done in the same way

At the moment I’m just presenting data. There will be interpretation of it in the player rankings articles later




Overall Rank Team xGA Home Rank Away Rank
1 Manchester City 6.45 2 1
2 Spurs 7.34 4 2
3 Chelsea 10.64 11 3
4 Manchester Utd 11.42 3 8
5 Newcastle United 12.25 16 4
6 Leicester 13.15 5 13
7 Huddersfield 13.28 10 7
8 Southampton 13.38 9 9
9 WBA 13.52 12 6
10 Arsenal 13.76 6 14
11 Liverpool 14.27 1 19
12 Brighton 14.56 13 11
13 Burnley 15.22 7 17
14 Swansea 16.56 19 5
15 Everton 17.10 17 10
16 Bournemouth 17.21 14 16
17 Watford 18.43 20 12
18 West Ham 18.60 15 18
19 Stoke 18.92 18 15
20 C Palace 19.07 8 20

TEAM XG ATTACK

Team xG Home Rank Away Rank
Manchester City 31.77 1 1
Liverpool 23.58 3 2
Man United 21.95 2 4
Arsenal 21.00 4 6
Spurs 18.77 5 5
Leicester 15.82 8 7
Watford 15.51 14 3
Southampton 13.94 6 15
Chelsea 13.76 10 8
Everton 12.68 7 13
Crystal Palace 12.50 12 10
Newcastle Utd 12.22 13 11
Stoke 11.66 9 17
Swansea 10.13 11 19
West Ham 9.76 16 12
West Brom 9.12 15 16
Brighton 8.97 20 9
Bournemouth 8.05 19 14
Huddersfield 7.40 17 18
Burnley 6.54 18 20

PLAYER XG AND XA BY POSITION PER 90 MINUTES PLAYED

I’ve made an arbitary decision that the player must have played 350 minutes to be considered. The stats have not been filtered for gametime security and fitness. That will happen in the player rankings later. The player values are as of Thursday 9th November.

DEFENDER XG 90 RANKING

Rank Defender Club Price £m xG xA
1 Matip Liverpool 5.5 0.19 0.05
2 Milner Liverpool 6.2 0.14 0.14
3 Lovren Liverpool 5.3 0.14 0.01
4 Bailly Man Utd 6.1 0.13 0.02
5 Britos Watford 4.5 0.13 0.14
6 B Davies Spurs 5.8 0.12 0.25
7 Dann C Palace 4.7 0.12 0.02
8 Bellerin Arsenal 5.9 0.11 0.12
9 Christensen Chelsea 5.4 0.11 0.01
10 Baines Everton 5.8 0.11 0.13

DEFENDER XA 90 RANKING

Rank Defender Club Price £m xG xA
1 B Davies Spurs 5.8 0.12 0.25
2 Kolasinac Arsenal 6.0 0.05 0.25
3 Trippier Spurs 5.7 0.01 0.24
4 Azpilicueta Chelsea 6.7 0.05 0.21
5 Walker Man City 6.6 0.01 0.18
6 Van Dijk Southampton 5.4 0.08 0.18
7 Holebas Watford 5.0 0.02 0.18
8 Maguire Leicester 5.1 0.01 0.17
9 Cresswell West Ham 5.0 0.01 0.15
10 Britos Watford 4.5 0.13 0.14

A few players who didn’t make the cut (xG 90 and xA 90)

Valencia 0.02 and o.02

Otamendi 0.10 and 0.01

Alonso 0.07 and 0.03

Daniels 0.01 and 0.08

MIDFIELDER XG 90 RANKING

Rank Midfielder Club Price £m xG xA
1 Sterling Man City 8.2 0.77 0.46
2 Salah Liverpool 9.4 0.69 0.19
3 Pogba Man Utd 8.0 0.50 0.17
4 Richarlison Watford 6.4 0.49 0.22
5 Sane Man City 8.9 0.48 0.48
6 Ramsey Arsenal 7.0 0.47 0.19
7 Mane Liverpool 9.3 0.43 0.20
8 Zaha C Palace 6.8 0.40 0.06
9 Alli Spurs 9.3 0.39 0.20
10 Sanchez Arsenal 11.8 0.35 0.49
11 Son HM Spurs 7.9 0.34 0.15
12 Choupo Moting Stoke 5.7 0.33 0.20
13 D Silva Man City 8.5 0.29 0.43
14 Ox Chamberlin Arsenal 5.7 0.27 0.22
15 Tadic Southampton 6.4 0.27 0.12

MIDFIELDER XA 90 RANKING

Rank Midfielder Club Price £m xG xA
1 Sanchez Arsenal 11.8 0.35 0.49
2 Ozil Arsenal 9.3 0.18 0.48
3 Sane Man City 8.9 0.48 0.48
4 Sterling Man City 8.2 0.77 0.46
5 Silva Man City 8.5 0.29 0.43
6 De Bruyne Man City 10.1 0.19 0.37
7 Mkhitaryan Man Utd 8.1 0.10 0.34
8 Mahrez Leicester 8.4 0.22 0.29
9 Brunt WBA 5.3 0.01 0.29
10 Hazard Chelsea 10.6 0.16 0.28
11 Mata Man Utd 6.9 0.11 0.28
12 Shaqiri Stoke 5.9 0.09 0.27
13 Gray Leicester 5.3 0.05 0.27
14 Eriksen Spurs 9.7 0.19 0.27
15 Knockaert Brighton 5.7 0.13 0.27

Just missed out Gross 0.04 and 0.24





FORWARD XG 90 RANKING

Rank Forward Club Price £m xG xA
1 Aguero Man City 11.8 1.03 0.53
2 Jesus Man City 10.5 0.92 0.03
3 Okazaki Leicester 5.6 0.77 0.11
4 Lukaku Man Utd 11.5 0.74 0.17
5 Kane Spurs 12.8 0.74 0.11
6 Morata Chelsea 10.3 0.64 0.10
7 Murray Brighton 5.8 0.59 0.01
8 Lacazette Arsenal 10.3 0.59 0.09
9 Sturridge Liverpool 8.0 0.58 0.18
10 Welbeck Arsenal 7.3 0.53 0.21

 

Just missed out Vardy 0.52 and 0.10

FORWARD XA 90 RANKING

Rank Forward Club Price £m xG xA
1 Aguero Man City 11.8 1.03 0.53
2 Firmino Liverpool 8.5 0.28 0.35
3 Rashford Man Utd 7.6 0.31 0.28
4 Welbeck Arsenal 7.3 0.53 0.21
5 Sturridge Liverpool 8.0 0.58 0.18
6 Lukaku Man Utd 11.5 0.74 0.17
7 Perez Newcastle 5.4 0.14 0.15
8 King Bournemouth 7.0 0.13 0.15
9 Gray Watford 6.3 0.23 0.14
10 Rooney Everton 7.3 0.29 0.14

Follow us on twitter and facebook and instagram for article updates and news

Geek Leagues

Fantasy Premier League: 5379-1967
Sun: FantasyFootballGeek SGDKX9Y3
TFF: FantasyFootballGeek PIN 8000919 Passcode 1159
Sky: FFGeek 8310511
UCL: 18664FKG
TFF UCL: FantasyFootballGeek PIN 8137738 Passcode 1210

FANTASY PREMIER LEAGUE GAMEWEEK 11 REVIEW – PART 2

November 9, 2017

FPL value players – which players offer the best value for money?

November 10, 2017

Comments

0 comments

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *




This window will close in
10