fantasy premier league underlying stats summary

Fantasy Premier League

After Joseph Crilley’s excellent analysis of gameweek 4 here’s our look at some cumulative fantasy premier league underlying stats to GW4.  As we did last week we’re focusing on expected goals and expected assists.  

fantasy premier league underlying stats summary

Here’s our fantasy premier league underlying stats review where we look at expected goals (xG) at a team and at an attacking  player level to see what insights we can get for future player selection.

Expected goals is a stat where the probability is evaluated that any given shot will end up as a goal.

Expected goals are based on a number of factors, such as where the shot was taken from and where the opposition defenders are at the time. The shot assumes it is being taken by someone of average ability in the league. To state the obvious , a shot from inside the 6 yard box in front of goal with no defenders around will have a very high probability it will end up as a goal.

In essence it shows you what should have happened rather than what has happened. Remember though we are only 4 games in so it’s difficult to make any accurate predictions from such limited data

Team expected goals are from twitter sites 11tegen11 and caley graphics. Player stats are from a great site called understats. All 3 sites are free and public. It’s also worth remembering that there are various people providing this data and it is subjective to some degree so there maybe variations in different data you see.

This week I’m not going to look at them from a regression basis and compare them to goals and assists.  While it can be useful with some players to look at over and under performance against the underlying stats, some players will perform way above or below the expected goals.  Kane was a great example last season.  If you expected regression you would never have got it as he’s a lethal finisher.   They should just be looked at as a way of evaluating a team or players goal or assist potential.




Team defensive xG

fantas

Team attacking xG

fantasy premier league underlying stats

Midfield Players expected goals and expected assists per 90 mins

It’s worth remembering that these are per 90 mins so there will only be small differences.  I’ve also tried to keep it to players who have some reasonable gametime prospects and have at least some reasonable minutes under their belt

fantasy premier league underlying stats




So what we see here is a complete division of players between goal scorers and assist based players.  There are only 2 players on both tables:

Salah (xG rank 1, xA rank 11)

Eriksen (xG rank 8 and xA rank 4)

Forward Players expected goals and expected assists per 90 mins

fantasy premier league underlying stats

fantasy premier league underlying stats

So unlike the midfielders there is more commonality in the schedules for forwards.  Here we see those players on both

Lukaku ( 1 and 10)

Aguero (5 and 1)

Welbeck ( 6 and 5)

Morata ( 7 and 6)

Vardy ( 9 and 8)

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