There’s been a load of articles and talk about when to use the first wildcard with a strong consensus that it should be used over the international break after GW3 opens. I thought that this is something worth commenting on.
fantasy premier league wildcard tips – some thoughts on the early wildcard
Firstly let me start with the fact that there are many ways to play FPL . I’ve posted an excellent article by regular commenter on the site Rob Reid aka finlay 81 which advocates value building including an early wildcard. This is in no way meant to cut across that. As I said there are many ways to play FPL. This article gives some views for and against an early wildcard to allow you to make your own decision
Here’s Rob’s article (copy and paste into your browser if link doesn’t work):
Building team value and early season strategy in fantasy premier league by Rob Reid aka Finlay81
So just to start with some basics. There are 2 wildcards in fantasy premier league. The first is up to December 31. The 2nd after it. Just in case you’re not familiar with the rules, a wildcard allows you to make unlimited changes to your team between the game weeks you decide to use it.
The theory at the moment is that using it over the 2 week international break allows the following:
1. Allows you to build value at a time when the longer international break and number of transfers maximise value increases
2. Allows you to field a team based only on the first 3 fixtures therefore maximising points.
3. Allows you to correct any mistakes made and allows you to pick the form players if you have a bad start
4. If you have a good start match up on the popular players to prevent rank regression
So let’s look at these points in turn.
1. There’s no doubt at this time in the season where virtually all 3 million or so managers are still actively managing their teams (this can reduce to 1/2 the teams at the back end of the season) that prices can move up and down more quickly than other times. That in itself means you can improve your team value at a greater rate than any other time. It’s worth noting though that last season values didn’t move so significantly as previous seasons when the price change algorithm was adjusted. In addition I believe wildcard transfers don’t effect the prices so this dilutes the improvement.
Does team value mean more points ultimately? I haven’t done a statistical correlation but I think it would be fairly naive to believe that it doesn’t help. Has the advantage has been diluted though by the monetary spread around the league meaning that there are more players of different values that can perform outside the traditional top 4 of Man Utd, Man City, Arsenal and Chelsea. Last season Leicester won the league and we saw the emergence of cheapies Mahrez, Vardy, Alli, Ighalo and Defoe. Was last season an outlier or the new normal and how will that effect the importance of value? Your views on the importance of value will be crucial in the timing of your first wildcard.
2. Does having a team set up for the first 3 fixtures help? I guess to some extent it depends on whether you believe in form and history or fixtures. Certainly the beginning of the season means there’s zero form apart from preseason which can often be an illusion when the season starts. History as Hazard showed last year can mean nothing so fixtures seem like a life raft to hold on to. However if you believe in fixtures the question you need to ask is how different is it to take a longer term view of say the first 6 fixtures rather than 3 to give you a bit more adjustment time if you’re not certain of whether to wildcard or not.
3. There’s no doubt an early chance of changing your team is a great feeling. The question is whether 3 games is enough time to make an informed judgement as to whether changing your team significantly with the wildcard is advisable?
4. If you saw my strategy article earlier you’ll see that there is a way of playing which means that effectively you own say 5/7 high ownership players who are normally the form players to minimise rank falls and concentrate on improving rank through the 2 differentials and your defence. When you do this you minimise rank drops and edge forward. If you have a good start a wildcard could allow you to consolidate and avoid backwards rank movement through adjusting the team to any form changes. However it’s possible that your team having started well includes all those players anyway?
While it’s easy to throw doubt, building value through transferring in bandwagons including over the international break with the wildcard is an clear strategy for the early gameweeks. There’s an absence of enough reliable stats and reliable form to pick players in the way you would later in the season when there’s a clearer stats picture. Here’s the article (copy and paste into your browser if link doesn’t work):
fantasy premier league strategy – analysing how 10 top FPL managers play FPL
So what’s the alternative ?
The alternative I guess is to remain flexible and let circumstances dictate when you use the wildcard. The right time could show it self due to injuries, rotation or players being dropped from the first team, a fixture storm or indeed if weather or maybe some other reason for postponements occurs allowing a first half of the season doublegameweek
The FFGeek current position
Personally being a rather conservative player at the moment ‘m not committing myself to the timing wildcard at this time. I’ll have a mixture of players with good fixtures for the first 3 and 6 plus some based on history and see how things progress. My recollection of last season saw little in the way of price adjustments over the international break. The first 3 games was a bit of a mirage when it came to form and mass changes didn’t really produce any great improvement in rank.
However I’m mindful that it’s far easier to hold a good rank than chase it and in setting up a team for the first 3 fixtures and then wildcarding does in theory give you a chance to get off to a good start. I’m also attracted to the certainty of the timing and a related way of playing in building team value.
I’ve yet to totally decide.
I hope you found this useful in presenting some facts to help you make a decision
Follow us for updates and news on twitter @fantasyfoot20 or facebook at http://www.facebook.com/fantasyfootballgeek (copy and paste into your browser if link doesn’t work)
This website is free. If you find it useful please support us via the donate button on the site
fantasy premier league League name www.fantasyfootballgeek.co.uk Code: 68142-27302
Telegraph fantasy football League name: FantasyFootballGeek League Pin: 8000919 League passcode: 2020
Sun Dream Team: name: FantasyFootballGeek League pin: D2T5ZCFN
