Football Index – a review of May’s purchases


Here’s our Football INDEX monthly review of the 20 share purchases in players over the last month.  We look at the winners, the losers and the learnings from the months trades.

FOOTBALL INDEX – A MONTHLY REVIEW OF MAY’S PURCHASES

Note this article was written on Tuesday 12 June



You may have seen my football INDEX introductory article where I outlined the basics of the footballer stock market where you buy and sell shares in real players.  I’ve also written an article looking at my purchases in April

So this month again I’ve spent approximately £100 again in roughly £5 lots and now is the time to look how those purchases have performed and also concentrate on who has performed well and who hasn’t and see what has been learned.

If you want to see what Football Index is about click on the image below or take a look here

An Overview

I’ve continued my strategy of looking for players who are likely to be transferred or who are likely to improve performance over the short and medium term.  I’ve also looked at a couple of very young players who could be ones for the future.

However the World Cup has changed things significantly and my most recent transfers have been trying to identify players with good fixtures in the World Cup who I think will start and hopefully perform well.  I’ve tried to make sure they are a reasonable age profile and that they haven’t been over bought previously.

I do look at players who are immediate transfer targets but it’s difficult to do so as often people have jumped all over them already and I get a bit nervous about it if the price is, potentially, at the top.  That view of the top is also the reason I’ve stayed away from the Messi’s, Bales and Salah’s of this world.

It’s worth remembering at this stage that Football Index is very different than placing a bet on a team to win or an anytime goal scorer.  With these bets you can double your money instantly but they are all or nothing bets and come with a great deal of risk.  Football Index returns are slower but your entire stake isn’t immediately at risk like the bets I just described. You do have to view it in a longer term profile.

I’ve got a big portfolio of players now which minimises risk but that diversification inevitably slows returns.  If you had a portfolio of say 5 players.  You potentially could get a better return or loss as you’ll be taking more risk.  I’m also playing with relatively small sums compared to some others I see. At the same time FPL and World Cup fantasy puts me in a position to make purchases without it being incredibly time consuming.

 This months transfers




Player date bought rise/fall %
1 Courtois 9.5.2018 12.00%
2 Iheanacho 12.5.2018 38.55%
3 Chambers 15.5.2018 2.94%
4 Xhaka 15.5.2018 18.18%
5 Christensen 17.5.2018 1.21%
6 Klassen 17.5.2018 1.45%
7 Carroll 20.5.2018 1.56%
8 Tarkowski 20.5.2018 1.04%
9 Wilshere 21.5.2018 -7.45%
10 N’Jie 21.5.2018 0.00%
11 Dele Alli 25.5.2018 1.30%
12 Calvert Lewin 31.5.2018 5.71%
13 Pellegri 31.5.2018 22.81%
14 Tadic 31.5.2018 4.49%
15 Goretzka 6.6.2018 -3.30%
16 Isco 6.6.2018 4.49%
17 De Arrascaeta 6.6.2018 19.59%
18 Zielinski 6.6.2018 6.38%
19 Mina 7.6.2018 -2.99%
20 Guerreiro 7.6.2018 1.00%
21 Vrsaljko 7.6.2018 0.00%

 

So a good return of 6.38% on the 1 months purchases.  It’s also worth noting that the April portfolio improved greatly as well.  After it’s first month return of 1.39% it’s now improved by 7.67% over the 2 months.

Best returns for May purchases

Iheanacho

This was a future transfer buy. After pretty limited gametime in 17/18 this stacked up as a potential transfer for me. Iheanacho has some good underlying stats and for me is a good potential premier league goalscorer.  I’m hoping he also starts in the World Cup to improve those transfer chances.  I did bank on Puel being sacked which I hoped would have the double effect of either seeing Iheanacho start or transferred.  Both would have improved value and at 83p I felt it couldn’t go wrong.

Pellegri

This was a young player long term buy.  Pietro Pellegri is a 17 year old Italian striker who was signed by Monaco for £17m.  I read about him in some random article and didn’t need to read any more given his reputation and Monaco’s history of improving and selling players.

De Arrascaeta

This was a future transfer and World Cup buy.  Giorgian De Arrascaeta is a Uruguayan attacking midfielder who is 24 and plays in Brazil.  He’s a gamble as I’m not sure he will start in the World Cup but given the good fixtures Uruguay have hopefully he will get a run out in the final fixture when Uruguay have won the group.  His price is pretty handy too at 97p

Xhaka

Another future transfer purchase.  If anyone is going to be on Unai Emery’s hit list it’s got to be this guy.  A CDM who’s positioning, tackling and tracking is absolutely hopeless and he surely must be out the door.  A pretty much certain starter for Switzerland he gets the chance to put himself in a the shop window.  The price at £1.10 was also ok.

Worst returns for May purchases

Wilshere

A future transfer purchase.  Everything I said for Xhaka I could repeat for Wilshere except the guy can dribble a bit.  However there has been talk that he will get a new contract although there’s also chat about him leaving at the same time.  I can’t see him staying personally and see no need to sell.

Goretzka

A World Cup purchase.  In retrospect I was probably a little over optimistic on his chances of playing for Germany and I can only imagine that realisation is hitting the price.  He’s not cheap either at £1.82.  He needs to make an impression at the World Cup or Bayern in the new season for it to be a wise purchase.

 Mina

Another World Cup purchase.  The Young Barca defender I thought would definitely start for Colombia and either enhance his transfer prospects or improve Barca gametime prospects.  Possibly falling into the Goretzka camp of purchases.  £1.34 doesn’t sound too cheap either.

April purchases

I won’t go into detail but the main risers are Bas Dost who was an immediate transfer rumour a couple of months ago has now rescinded his contract in the Sporting Lisbon chaos.  Azpilicueta seems to be benefiting from Carvahal injury maybe and the uncertainty at Chelsea.  Kimpembe is a PSG young CB long term purchase who’s in the France WC squad.

The main drop is Mustafi who seems to be slowly recovering.  I’m not selling .  He will either improve or be sold.  Morata is the other who again I suspect will either be sold or get another chance after Conte is inevitably sacked.

There are smaller losses in Solanke, Zappacosta and Andre Gray, none of which worry me

The World Cup

The World Cup is going to be interesting.  I feel like I’m going to have to be on my phone for every time someone scores or is in a lineup unexpectedly. That will certainly be my main focus over the next month of purchases

Overall position

So here’s my overall position:

football index

So a good month.  Up to 9.03% from 4.9% last month and a gain of £14.96 for the month.

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