Here’s a short article looking at the season so far and some early thoughts on the plans for GW12.
FPL review – a few reflections on the season to date and plans for GW12
THE SEASON SO FAR
Surprising results, a lack of clean sheets and a huge player pool seems to be the key themes so far this season. GW11 signalled the power of Chelsea and Liverpool. Interestingly they are the 2 potential title challengers that don’t have any European Competitions and they are showing the benefit of it.
The Chelsea and Hazard recent form has been a real eye opener. After Hazard started with 3 consecutive returning games he then went 4 games in a row blanking and now has gone 4 consecutive games scoring. Chelsea had looked like a disaster waiting to happen with the 3-0 loss to Arsenal but Conte has transformed the side by playing 3-4-3. I was surprised by their domination of Southampton in GW10 which was very impressive. However Everton have been one of the better defensive sides and Chelsea absolutely ripped them apart. Yes Koeman did change the system and they were missing the tackle machine in Gueye but that can’t really give enough reasons for the Chelsea demolition. This was more about Chelsea than Everton. You maybe wondering how Chelsea went under the radar until now. Firstly the Arsenal loss would have signalled the end for many such was the paucity of the performance. They weren’t under the radar completely. In my GW11 “ones to watch” player ratings article I did rate Chelsea the best defensive team, Costa the 2nd best striking after Aguero although Hazard was ranked only 5th in the midfield options.
It seems hard to believe after the 6-1 thrashing of Watford that people were saying that Liverpool would struggle against sides parking the bus. That definitely seems to have been put to bed. The lottery of Firmino, Coutinho and Mane is symptomatic of the lottery of midfield players especially. I have 20 in my midfield “ones to watch” articles but could have double that. However the 10 top managers before this weekend seemed to have largely settled on Firmino, Coutinho, Sanchez and Allen/Walcott. The Forward line dominated by Aguero, Lukaku and one other.
Incredible that GW11 only saw 1 clean sheet. Historically the title chasing teams have had 16-18 or so clean sheets and GW9 with 9 clean sheets and GW10 with 7 seemed to see a turnaround in defensive fortunes. However 1 clean sheet only in GW11 seems to have sentt the question back for debate. Man City the title favourites only have 1 clean sheet as do Liverpool. I’ve always wanted to have a balance in my teams between defence and attack and this season the amount of attacking options and the unpredictability of results means I’ve tried to have a “set and forget” defence. However Arsenal don’t appear to warrant their £6m or so investment and the jury is definitely out on Evertons ability to keep clean sheets. I still like the theory but I’d like to keep it at £5.0m or so for each player from a top 4 challenging team. Chelsea maybe the exception.
Team value is the other interesting point so far this season. I struggle to focus on team value. I like to produce my player stats and listen to various views on the forums etc before making a decision on who to get in. That often means transfers late in the week at the expense of team value. This season I’ve been helped out with some good cheap alternatives to make value less relevant. There have been a few decent cheap striking options to help with the likes of Defoe and Austin. There have also been midfield options at good value. Even the Liverpool attacking trio don’t seem that expensive. The emergence of Son and Capoue may have been a mirage as maybe Allen and Gundogan. People focusing on team value may hope at the end to have an attacking team that looks something like Hazard, De Bruyne, Firmino and Coutinho, Aguero, Lukau and Costa. I need there to be a £6mish striking option and a £5.5m ish midfield option to fire to balance this out. Or replacements in teams that are cheaper. Walcott could be a Sanchez alternative, although there doesn’t look a cheap Hazard or De Bruyne alternative.
Hits have been a big topic recently. Alot of managers seem to be advocating it as a way out of trouble. It’s one thing if injuries or suspensions mean you won’t field a full attacking team but risky to buy your way out of trouble. In a season so unpredictable I’ve tried to avoid hits as points are precious. On average 2 of your front 7 are probably going to score (average £2.50 goalscoring odds) so to spend a goal on a player is a risky call for me. It’s just a personal view though. It’s worth noting that the one time I may take a hit is where there is a huge captain favourite for the week who I don’t have.
FFGEEK TEAM PERFORMANCE AND PLANS FOR GW12
Firstly here’s how the team scored;
THE FFGEEK TEAM
An horrendous Saturday moving back 90k places rescued by a good Sunday from Austin, Coutinho and Firmino moving me back to virtually the same position of 98k. A 3k red arrow. Relief as it could have been alot worse. I also have 2 transfers which were meant for injuries and possible GW12 absentees after the international break. It now maybe necessary to use them early on Hazard and Alonso.
Taking out Mustafi seems the easy option for Alonso. Hazard is a bit trickier. It’s a straight choice between one of the Liverpool players and Sanchez. It seems impossible to take out one of the Liverpool players after last week. Sanchez travels to South America and has Man Utd next so doesn’t look that bad an option. The complicating factor is the next 2 fixtures. Bournemouth and West Ham. Chelsea have Spurs and Man City. Walcott also offers a cheaper alternative and would be necessary for GW13. I won’t be burning my Sanchez bridges as my buy back and sell price are virtually the same. I can also see alot of Sanchez transfers out taking place which should mitigate the negative ranking effect of any big hauls he may get.
Hazard will go up again tonight according to the excellent site FPL statistics so tonight is the night to decide. It’s a case of value vs injury risk to other players. So there maybe another article if I do it tonight! I hate early transfers though especially over the international break when 4 of my current team are already in South America. Add to that 1 is suspended in Holebas and another not selected in Amat
That’s it. I’ll tweet what I end up doing
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