FPL team analysis – Joseph Crilley focuses on Spurs

Fantasy Premier League

Following David’s article on Man City, here’s contributor to the site Joseph Crilley’s FPL team analysis article.  Here he talk’s about the FPL prospects of the Spurs’ players from the point of view of a season ticket holder for many years.  Last season Joseph finished with an excellent 13k overall rank in FPL

FPL team analysis – Joseph Crilley focuses on Spurs

Formation

Depending on player availability and opposition, Pochettino will usually play either 4-2-3-1 or 3-4-2-1.  This typically depends on whether Son is in the team. Against stronger opposition, I believe that we’re more likely to see 3-4-2-1 rolled out.   I think 4-2-3-1 will be utilised against the so-called lesser teams as we saw in the last few games of the season.

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Goalkeeper

Fairly simple, Lloris (£5.5m) will be the undisputed number one with Michel Vorm (£5.0m) as his back-up.  Vorm maybe limited to some appearances in the early rounds of the domestic cup competitions. There is strong talk of a deal for Spanish U21 goalkeeper Pau Lopez who was on loan last year.  However, if he were to join, it’s most likely that he would only be seen in the reserves. It seems unnecessary to include a Spurs goalkeeper within your team as there are better options in defence.

Defence

Fullbacks

One of the big stories of the summer was RB Kyle Walker’s departure. At first glance, it leaves Kieran Trippier (£5.5m) as the clear first choice for the right-back slot. However it is worth noting that Spurs are trying to negotiate the transfer of Ricardo Pereira from Porto as written about here. I would be surprised if Trippier doesn’t start as first choice regardless.   His form at the end of last season was a major factor in Walker’s exit and it was clear to the fans that Trippier was Pochettino’s first choice in the last portion of the season.

Full back is a key position in the Pochettino system and a lot of energy is required from them so I’m sure that we will see some rotation at some point in the season. That could even include some Premier League games.  Davies (£5.5m) and Rose (£6.5m) will rotate in the left back slot but Rose will be first choice despite Davies’ strong finish last year as he brings an extra energy that the Welshman cannot provide. From my experience, it seems that Pochettino is more likely to play 3 at the back if Rose is fit because Davies is much better in the 4-2-3-1 system as opposed to 3-4-2-1. Rose has a knee ligament injury at the moment. The current expected return date is 19th August (GW2) though there is previous of players at Spurs taking rather longer than anticipated to return from injury (see Lamela later).

Centre backs

Centre back is much easier as Vertonghen (£6.0m) and Alderweireld (£6.0m) will be first choice when 4 at the back is played with Dier (£5.0m mid) coming in to play on the right side of the 3 when required. Currently Wimmer (£4.5m) provides back-up but he has stated his desire to leave this summer to seek more regular football. It seems that young centre back Juan Foyth will be signed but that looks like a deal with a view to the future.

Alderweireld  will play every game when fit as he is imperative to the organisation of our defence and starting our attacks with his passing ability.  So assuming he’s fit that extra £0.5m over the fullbacks cost will give you less rotation risk

From a fantasy point of view, Trippier (5 assists in 7 starts) looks a fantastic option especially at the start of the year as we won’t see rotation until later. However, I think that Alderweireld at £6.0m could prove to be a great option like he was 2 years ago. Despite only 1 goal last year, he still looked a threat at set-pieces and averaged an attempt every 93mins. He had 21 shots in the box which is more than 6 goal man Gary Cahill who played 7 more games.




Midfield

In centre midfield, we would usually see two of Dier (£5.0m), Wanyama (£5.0m) and Dembele (£5.0m) with Harry Winks (£5.0m) providing back-up. When playing 4-2-3-1, one of these players would be expected to drop deep and as such allow the full backs to bomb forward. Dembele is often tasked with carrying the ball forward to draw players in and allow space for the creative players further forward.  Wanyama also became more adept at this as the season went on.

In the further forward positions, Alli (£9.5m) and Eriksen (£9.5m) are clearly favoured, though Son (£8.0m) showed some incredible form at the end of the season which forced Pochettino to play the 4-2-3-1 formation. However, I would imagine he is the one to drop out if 3-4-2-1 is required. Unfortunately, Son broke his arm playing for South Korea in June and is expected to miss the start of the season so I think there’s a chance that 3-4-2-1 is the formation used in the first few games.

Signings and outgoings

As back-up, we currently have Sissoko (£5.5m) and Nkoudou (£5.5m) which doesn’t exactly fill opposition with fear. However, there’s a lot of Spurs fans (myself included) who would like to see Nkoudou given more a chance. I’d be shocked if Sissoko is still at the club come September as it seems to have been accepted that his transfer was a complete failure. Another player to remember is Erik Lamela (£6.5m). He was supposed to spend a brief spell on the sidelines when first diagnosed with a hip injury last October but is now hopeful of a return this October. Having started the season strongly, he may be one to monitor if he can get back into the first team as his creativity and dribbling ability was missed at times last season.

We may see some signings in midfield as Spurs are looking to sign a no. 10 and a winger with Everton’s Barkley (£7.5m) increasing looking like an option. However, knowing Daniel Levy, any signings will happen towards the end the transfer window so he can negotiate the best deal as described in this article about Barkley. I also struggle to see us bringing any players that will slot straight into the first XI due to the wage structure in place and the trust Pochettino has in the current team.

To summarise, Eriksen and Alli are obviously great fantasy options and I was actually expecting them to come in at least £10mil. I’m sure some people would prefer to wait and see the Wembley effect which I will discuss later. Son and Lamela are options to monitor upon their return from injury, but I’m not sure you can ever guarantee their starts.

Attack

Kane (£12.5m) will play every game when fit.  He’s a great fantasy option.  Kane is also one of 3 players highlighted in the FFGeek’s article Searching for Mr Consistency.

Set-pieces

Kane will be man for penalties and Eriksen will take control of most, if not all of the free-kicks in the opposition half. He also will be on corners but I have a feeling that Trippier may get a chance at the start the season. Many Spurs fans will be glad of this as they get frustrated with Eriksen’s propensity to hit the first man but this is mostly due to our tactic of a low delivery to be flicked in at the near post by usually Alderweireld or Dier.

Wembley Factor

As I’m sure you’re aware, Spurs will be playing their home games at Wembley next year while the new stadium is being built. Our record at the stadium of 1 win in 5 games last year has been highly publicised, especially in comparison to our very strong form at White Hart Lane.  This strong form meant a lot of fantasy points for the Spurs players. The main issue is the size of the Wembley pitch which is larger than White Hart Lane, making it difficult for us to engage our pressing game which has been so successful under Pochettino. If you want further details, this article helps to explain. I understand the concern of fantasy managers but I would like to point out the quality of the opposition we played which was stronger than your typical Premier League team.

Monaco (loss) – Champions League semi-finalists

Bayern Leverkusen (loss) – regular Champions League team

CSKA Moscow (win) – regular Champions League team

Gent (draw) – played most the game with 10 men after Alli red card

Chelsea (loss) – Premier League champions

Looking at the results above, it is possible to present our record in a more favourable light and I’m hopeful that playing at Wembley won’t affect us as much as some are saying. However, I am of course slightly worried about what will happen in our home games next season as for many visiting players, this could be the only time in their career that they get to play under the famous arch and will therefore be ready to put in a big performance. Unfortunately, it is not possible to guarantee how our results and performances will be affected, but it is something to keep in mind when selecting your squad.




GW1

Rose is unlikely to start and Son is an injury risk as well for the moment.  This situation didn’t occur last season,  so I’m guessing slightly, but I think we’d go with the 3-4-2-1 formation  with Davies at LWB.  If we were to make a signing like Barkley, then could step in to make a 4-2-3-1.

Fixtures

Here’s Spurs first 6 fixtures:

Newcastle (A)
Chelsea (H)
Burnley (H)
Everton (A)
Swansea (H)
West Ham (A)

FFGeek in his GW1 fixture ease article ranked them as having the  10th best attacking fixtures from GW1-3 and 9th best from GW1-6

Conclusion

For your fantasy team, I think you do need to have one of Eriksen, Alli or Kane in your team and who you choose is down to you. I personally have Kane in my team currently and tended to favour Eriksen over Alli last year due to stronger underlying stats and set-piece responsibility.  However all 3 are good options. I think doubling up is a little risky to start the season considering the Wembley factor. Trippier is also in my team as I think that he is such excellent value at £5.5m. I don’t really see any other options within our squad for the start of the season unless you take the punt on a different defender.  See my recent article on value players which also includes my current draft team

I hope this article proved helpful to those looking for Spurs assets to include in their team.

Thanks Joseph excellent insight.

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