Here’s an article from the FPL Vet, Rob Reid (also known as Finlay 81) with some theories on the poor defensive returns so far in the fantasy premier league season. It’s a great read. Rob is a regular commenter on the site and someone worth listening to as he finished with a rank of 4,701 last season 2015/16 and 7,810 the season before.
FPL tips – Rob Reid (the FPL Vet) on theories for the poor defensive returns this season
The Case Against the Defence
7 gameweeks down, 31 to go and much to ponder so far. One area which I am sure has frustrated many managers over these first 7 weeks has been the poor returns coming from the defence. While it’s accepted that these players will score you less over the course of the season, scores from this area have been particularly disappointing so far. It’s not been unusual this season to have the combination of these 4 or 5 players return 4 points or less in a gameweek. It’s really frustrating when a chunk of your team contributes so little. It certainly leaves you vulnerable if your attacking players fail to produce the goods. In this article I’m going to explore this topic, look at some ideas as to why this could be occurring and look at some strategies moving forward.
Is there a problem with defence this year?
Before we do anything, let’s look at if there is a genuine problem here in the first place or if this has just been down to poor selection by the bulk of us managers…well let’s just say that so many of us can’t be wrong! If we look at defensive returns compared with previous years then scores are certainly lower. Looking at this simplistically, there have been less clean sheets in the first 7 Gameweeks this season than in the previous 2 seasons. This season we are averaging 4.29 clean sheets a week so far (exact numbers are 2,7,5,3,4,4,5.) This compares with 6.57 last season (5,8,8,9,7,7,2) and 5.71 in 2014-15 (4,7,6,7,5,6,5.) Less clean sheets of course, also means two other things – more negative points as teams concede more than once and less bonus points. So to cut a long story short, yes there is a problem with defence so far this season!
Why could this be happening?
There are many reasons why this could be occurring. For me though, there are a few primary factors that stand out above others. One of the hallmarks of a solid defence is consistency of selection and these factors are all having an impact on this.
Managerial merry-go-round – several significant management changes are key here. 4 of the big 6 came into the new season with new or recent managers (Conte, Mourhinho, Guardiola and Klopp) as well 2 of the other bigger and previously more defensively reliable teams (Southampton and Everton) also making changes. This is going to have an immediate impact on player selection, consistency and playing style. Managers new to the EPL in particular may take a while to assert their defensive style as well as players that they’ve signed taking time to get settled in.
Euro hangover – the turnaround between Euro 2016 and the start of the season was relatively short, meaning that some players weren’t back to full fitness (and in some cases even available for selection) until gameweek 3. Add to this any injuries picked up over the summer or those not shaken off from the end of last season, such as Vincent Kompany. It may seem obvious, but a defence missing key international players is bound to be less watertight.
Expansive playing styles – Leicester City’s surprise win last season, accompanied by the wave of new managers has certainly led to teams adopting more attacking new styles. Klopp and Guardiola for example who have come from a Bundesliga background definitely embrace this – if you watch the Bundesliga, you do see some real goal-fests! It’s also still fairly early in season. There’s less of the fear-factor at this stage and teams are more open to attack. As the season progresses and relegation starts to become a factor, I’d expect to see teams tighten up.
What is the impact of this?
Firstly, premium defenders are less likely to keep clean sheets. Take the Big 6, only Arsenal (3/7 clean sheets) and Spurs (4/7) have anything like decent returns so far. Man Utd and Chelsea have only mustered 2, City 1 and Liverpool 0 so far. The premium teams have their issues. The City defence struggles without Kompany, Liverpool look terrible at set-pieces, Mourinho hasn’t managed to maintain United’s defensive solidity from the Van Gaal era and Chelsea’s defenders continue to be beset by poor individual form (Ivanovic and Cahill especially.)
Secondly, there’s no stand-out mid-range team at the moment. Southampton are possibly starting to come good after 3 consecutive clean sheets, but they have Man City, Chelsea and Liverpool in 3 of their next 5 fixtures. Everton haven’t managed to take advantage of good fixtures and West Brom haven’t continued their good early season defensive form.
Finally, there’s no standout cheap option. Watford and Bournemouth have good fixtures coming up but don’t inspire confidence. Swansea have the only playing cheapies but have had terrible fixtures and now also have a new manager which throws game-time security up in the air. And the promoted teams are too inconsistent – they’ve all shown individual games of promise but nothing reliable.
Moving forward
So where do we go from here? The obvious answer is to invest more of your funds in attacking players and I think for the moment, there is certainly wisdom in this. If you’re on a Wildcard this week, I’d be putting the bulk of my money into at least 6 strong attacking players with possibly a pair of rotating cheapies for the other 2. I wouldn’t write off your defence though – I would see this as an opportunity. If you follow FFG’s Top 10 managers article, you’ll notice that most of the Top 10 use defence as a differential and there is definite potential here. I expect defensive returns to improve as the season progresses and if you get your selection correct, there will be some helpful advantages here.
If I was buying a premium defender at the moment, I’d initially focus on Arsenal or Spurs as they have the best form so far and also generally have consistency of selection. It’s no co-incidence that Arsenal and Spurs have 5 of the 8 top-scoring defenders so far. Arsenal have a proven track record in previous seasons and Mustafi’s addition seems to have settled things down. Pochettino did a great job at Southampton and has continued this at White Hart Lane. Don’t be afraid to look at goalkeepers as well – most of the best defensive options with these to clubs will cost you £6m-ish – Cech and Lloris are a cheaper entry point at £5.5m and £5.4. I would consider both these teams to be fairly fixture-proof as well as Arsenal’s clean sheet versus Chelsea and Spurs clean sheet versus Man City shows.
On the basis of fixtures alone, Man City and Liverpool look good premium picks but I’m wary of both. If Kompany is fit then I think City will come good. As for Liverpool, I would have serious question marks regarding their reliability! I wouldn’t totally write off Chelsea and Man Utd. It will be interesting to see if Chelsea continue to improve after dropping Ivanovic. He’s been so awful for so long now it was a big surprise he’s managed to keep his place. Man Utd have a good defence on paper but it just hasn’t clicked consistently yet, we’ll see.
For the rest? If you’re looking for form – as already said, Southampton have good recent form but some tricky fixtures coming up. Leicester kept a clean sheet last weekend and have looked solid in the Champions League so they could be a good outside option, though they were outclassed at Old Trafford a couple of weeks back. If you’re going on fixtures, then Hull, Stoke, Bournemouth and Watford look the best fillers. However the former 2 have take a couple of thrashings so far this season and the latter 2 haven’t looked particularly solid either. You could also look at mid- or lower-priced defenders that offer more attacking returns – Van Aanholt, Baines and Holebas are popular picks on this basis. Beware though – Holebas is one booking off a suspension, Baines has been carrying an injury and PVA is playing in a team that are offering very limited attacking returns. Basically – I wouldn’t like to gamble on anything in the above paragraph!
If you were to put me on the spot, I’d probably lean towards having Arsenal and Spurs cover, 1 cheapie and then 3 £4.5-5m priced players, possibly 2 of which have home fixture rotation. Even then though, I’d be delighted if I got the set totalling double figures! I hope this has been of interest to everyone. If you’re on a Wildcard, who are you going to be putting in your Gameweek 8 defence? If you’re not, who’s on your shopping list and are you considering All Out Attack this week, it could be a good week to play it….!!!
Thanks very much for these thoughts Rob, much appreciated and good luck this gameweek
