FPL underlying stats GW30 – expected goals totals

Here’s our FPL underlying stats GW30 article where we presented expected goals totals up to and including GW29.   We look at team stats and individual players by position stats including projected attacking points as well as a points per million calculation. There’s also an xG/xA team at the end as a summary.  

 FPL underlying stats GW30 – expected goals totals

There’s alot of stats to come so if you’d rather just see the outcome look at the expected goals/assists team at the end. You can also the expected goals tables for GW29 itself in Joseph Crilleys GW29 review

BACKGROUND

Expected goals is a stat where the probability is evaluated that any given shot will end up as a goal.

Expected goals are based on a number of factors, such as where the shot was taken from and where the opposition defenders are at the time. The shot assumes it is being taken by someone of average ability in the league. To state the obvious , a shot from inside the 6 yard box in front of goal with no defenders around will have a very high probability it will end up as a goal.

In essence it shows you what should have happened rather than what has happened.

The expected goals are now all wholly from the excellent free site understat.com

TEAM RANKINGS FOR DEFENCE AND ATTACK

Here I rank the teams overall for defence and attack and then home and away by expected goals

TEAM DEFENCE

TEAM ATTACK

METHOD AND CAVEATS FOR PLAYER RANKINGS

This is just one part of ranking players it’s not the be all and end all. I do a player rankings series which uses more stats than just xG and xA. There’s no filtering here for gametime security or injuries.

Here I have taken the Non penalty xG per 90 minutes (NPxG90) and the xA and converted them into goals and assist points and then total points as if they were playing over the whole season 90 minutes each game. I haven’t added on appearance points, adjusted for average minutes or bonus points or clean sheets for defenders. It’s purely just the goals and assist points. There was a minimum minutes played of 500 minutes. I’ve also added a points per million column.

Players don’t perform on a straight line with the stats. Some like Hazard and De Bruyne have shown they can over perform. Others like Tadic have a history of under performing. I have not tried to adjust for this. That’s more for the player rankings articles.

Don’t concentrate too much on the points. They are principally for ranking purposes. If you wonder why the random numbers of players it’s because I went down to a certain threshold and then it was whatever number of players ended up.

Player Stat abbreviations

Value £m: The FPL price at the time of the article

NP xG90: the non penalty expected goals per 90 minutes played

xA90: the expected assists per 90 minutes played

ProjPts: the projected attacking points based on the current NPxG90 and xA90 if the player played 38 games 90 minutes in each. No points for starting,no bonus, no clean sheet points, just goals and assists points.

Pts/£m: the projected points above per £m value. This is for Mids and Fwds only. An average is around 10 and it gives you an indication of value for money.

DEFENDERS ATTACK RANKING

MIDFIELD ATTACK RANKING

FORWARDS ATTACK RANKING

AN NPXG90 AND XA90 TEAM

So I picked a team of about £107m so not achievable. It is just meant to be a player menu.

Injuries, gametime (including consistent early substitution risk) are a filtering factor as was a team structure of:

2 cheap GKs picked by defensive strength

3 premium defenders. 2 cheap defs picked by defensive strength

2 premium mids. 2 cheaper mids and 1 around £5.0m

2 premium forwards and 1 cheap forward

Here’s the team:

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