FPL underlying stats GW31 – expected goals totals

Here’s our FPL underlying stats GW31 article where we presented expected goals totals up to and including GW30. We look at team stats and individual players by position stats including projected attacking points as well as a points per million calculation. There’s also a GW31 only xG/xA team at the end as a summary to help you think about this weeks transfers.

FPL UNDERLYING STATS GW31 – EXPECTED GOALS TOTALS

There’s alot of stats to come so if you’d rather just look at the best expected goals/assists players for GW31 then go to the team at the end of the article.

BACKGROUND

Expected goals is a stat where the probability is evaluated that any given shot will end up as a goal.

Expected goals are based on a number of factors, such as where the shot was taken from and where the opposition defenders are at the time. The shot assumes it is being taken by someone of average ability in the league. To state the obvious , a shot from inside the 6 yard box in front of goal with no defenders around will have a very high probability it will end up as a goal.

In essence it shows you what should have happened rather than what has happened.

The expected goals are now all wholly from the excellent free site understat.com




TEAM RANKINGS FOR DEFENCE AND ATTACK

Here I rank the teams overall for defence and attack and then home and away by expected goals

TEAM DEFENCE

Ovr Rank xGA   Home Away
1 Manchester City 1 1
2 Tottenham 2 3
3 Chelsea 4 2
4 Liverpool 3 4
5 Manchester United 5 5
6 Leicester 11 6
7 WBA 9 10
8 Brighton 10 9
9 Arsenal 14 7
10 Southampton 6 13
11 Huddersfield 8 12
12 Burnley 15 11
13 Newcastle United 13 14
14 Watford 19 8
15 Crystal Palace 12 18
16 Swansea 17 15
17 West Ham 7 20
18 Everton 16 17
19 Stoke 18 16
20 Bournemouth 20 19

TEAM ATTACK

Ovr Rank xG   Home Away
1 Manchester City 1 1
2 Liverpool 3 2
3 Tottenham 4 3
4 Arsenal 2 9
5 Manchester United 5 4
6 Chelsea 6 5
7 Crystal Palace 7 10
8 Leicester 8 7
9 Watford 13 6
10 Newcastle United 16 8
11 Everton 10 12
12 Southampton 9 13
13 West Ham 19 11
14 Bournemouth 14 14
15 Brighton 11 19
16 Stoke 12 17
17 WBA 15 18
18 Huddersfield 18 16
19 Burnley 20 15
20 Swansea 17 20

METHOD AND CAVEATS FOR PLAYER RANKINGS

This is just one part of ranking players it’s not the be all and end all. I do a player rankings series which uses more stats than just xG and xA. There’s no filtering here for gametime security or injuries.

Here I have taken the Non penalty xG per 90 minutes (NPxG90) and the xA and converted them into goals and assist points and then total points as if they were playing over the whole season 90 minutes each game. I haven’t added on appearance points, adjusted for average minutes or bonus points or clean sheets for defenders. It’s purely just the goals and assist points. There was a minimum minutes played of 500 minutes. I’ve also added a points per million column.

Players don’t perform on a straight line with the stats. Some like Hazard and De Bruyne have shown they can over perform. Others like Tadic have a history of under performing. I have not tried to adjust for this. That’s more for the player rankings articles.

Don’t concentrate too much on the points. They are principally for ranking purposes. If you wonder why the random numbers of players it’s because I went down to a certain threshold and then it was whatever number of players ended up.

Player Stat abbreviations

Value £m: The FPL price at the time of the article.  In this case the 13 March

NP xG90: the non penalty expected goals per 90 minutes played

xA90: the expected assists per 90 minutes played

ProjPts: the projected attacking points based on the current NPxG90 and xA90 if the player played 38 games 90 minutes in each. No points for starting,no bonus, no clean sheet points, just goals and assists points.

Pts/£m: the projected points above per £m value. This is for Mids and Fwds only. An average is around 10 and it gives you an indication of value for money.  The average is around 10.

DEFENDERS ATTACK RANKING

Ovr Rank Player Club Val £m NP xG xA Proj Pts
1 Davide Zappacosta Chelsea 5.9 0.14 0.11 44
2 Marcos Alonso Chelsea 7.2 0.13 0.11 42
3 Sead Kolasinac Arsenal 5.8 0.08 0.20 41
4 Victor Moses Chelsea 6.5 0.13 0.09 40
5 Mamadou Sakho Crystal Palace 4.6 0.15 0.03 38
6 Virgil van Dijk Liverpool 5.6 0.10 0.13 38
7 Scott Dann Crystal Palace 4.6 0.15 0.01 35
8 Miguel Britos Watford 4.3 0.10 0.11 35
9 James Milner Liverpool 6.0 0.07 0.16 34
10 Serge Aurier Tottenham 5.9 0.05 0.19 33
11 Patrick van Aanholt Crystal Palace 5.1 0.09 0.10 32
12 Joel Matip Liverpool 5.4 0.12 0.03 31
13 Ben Davies Tottenham 5.9 0.05 0.17 31
14 Ciaran Clark Newcastle United 4.4 0.11 0.05 31
15 Eric Bailly Manchester United 6.0 0.12 0.02 30
16 Nacho Monreal Arsenal 5.5 0.08 0.10 30
17 Héctor Bellerín Arsenal 5.9 0.08 0.10 30
18 Maya Yoshida Southampton 4.6 0.11 0.03 29
19 Andrew Robertson Liverpool 4.9 0.03 0.19 29
20 Harry Maguire Leicester 5.6 0.05 0.14 27
21 Kieran Trippier Tottenham 5.3 0.02 0.20 27
22 Daryl Janmaat Watford 4.8 0.10 0.03 26
23 Nicolás Otamendi Manchester City 6.4 0.10 0.02 25
24 Dejan Lovren Liverpool 5.3 0.08 0.06 25
25 José Holebas Watford 4.8 0.02 0.17 24
26 Ryan Shawcross Stoke 4.8 0.10 0.01 24
27 Craig Dawson WBA 4.8 0.09 0.03 24
28 Wesley Hoedt Southampton 5.0 0.09 0.03 24
29 Kyle Walker Manchester City 6.6 0.02 0.16 23
30 John Stones Manchester City 5.3 0.10 0.00 23
31 Laurent Koscielny Arsenal 6.0 0.09 0.02 23
32 Ryan Bertrand Southampton 5.3 0.06 0.08 23
33 Kevin Long Burnley 4.1 0.03 0.14 23
34 Lewis Dunk Brighton 4.5 0.09 0.01 22
35 Danny Rose Tottenham 6.4 0.06 0.07 22
36 Trent Alexander-Arnold Liverpool 4.3 0.03 0.13 22
37 Alfie Mawson Swansea 5.1 0.08 0.02 21
38 Wes Morgan Leicester 4.4 0.08 0.02 21
39 Jonny Evans WBA 4.9 0.07 0.04 21
40 Shane Duffy Brighton 4.6 0.07 0.04 21
41 César Azpilicueta Chelsea 6.9 0.02 0.13 19
42 Leighton Baines Everton 5.6 0.03 0.11 19
43 David Luiz Chelsea 5.7 0.08 0.00 18
44 Jeffrey Schlupp Crystal Palace 4.7 0.05 0.06 18
45 Ragnar Klavan Liverpool 4.2 0.07 0.01 17
46 Ahmed Hegazy WBA 4.7 0.07 0.01 17
47 Zanka Huddersfield 4.5 0.07 0.01 17
48 Sebastian Prödl Watford 4.3 0.06 0.02 16

MIDFIELD ATTACK RANKING

Ovr Rank Player Club Val £m NP xG xA Proj Pts £Pts/m
1 Mohamed Salah 10.6 Liverpool 0.71 0.26 165 15.5
2 Raheem Sterling 8.6 Manchester City 0.56 0.30 141 16.3
3 Son Heung-Min 8.2 Tottenham 0.48 0.28 123 15.0
4 Sadio Mané 9.4 Liverpool 0.47 0.20 112 11.9
5 David Silva 8.0 Manchester City 0.39 0.32 111 13.8
6 Alexis Sánchez 11.6 Manchester United 0.39 0.29 107 9.2
7 Jesse Lingard 6.0 Manchester United 0.45 0.18 106 17.7
8 Anthony Martial 7.9 Manchester United 0.35 0.34 105 13.3
9 Aaron Ramsey 6.9 Arsenal 0.38 0.25 101 14.6
10 Leroy Sané 8.6 Manchester City 0.28 0.36 94 11.0
11 Dele Alli 8.9 Tottenham 0.30 0.29 90 10.1
12 Marko Arnautovic 7.0 West Ham 0.38 0.15 89 12.8
13 Eden Hazard 10.6 Chelsea 0.26 0.29 82 7.8
14 Paul Pogba 7.8 Manchester United 0.33 0.17 82 10.5
15 Willian 7.0 Chelsea 0.25 0.30 82 11.7
16 Christian Eriksen 9.4 Tottenham 0.21 0.36 81 8.6
17 Mesut Özil 9.3 Arsenal 0.19 0.38 79 8.5
18 Theo Walcott 7.1 Arsenal, Everton 0.32 0.16 79 11.1
19 Richarlison 6.0 Watford 0.33 0.14 79 13.1
20 Kevin De Bruyne 10.4 Manchester City 0.16 0.40 76 7.3
21 Bernardo Silva 7.5 Manchester City 0.26 0.21 73 9.8
22 Wilfried Zaha 6.8 Crystal Palace 0.27 0.18 72 10.6
23 Riyad Mahrez 8.8 Leicester 0.21 0.27 71 8.0
24 Alex Iwobi 5.1 Arsenal 0.25 0.18 68 13.3
25 Henrikh Mkhitaryan 7.7 Arsenal 0.11 0.40 67 8.6
26 Eric Maxim Choupo-Moting 5.4 Stoke 0.23 0.13 59 10.8
27 Juan Mata 6.8 Manchester United 0.17 0.23 59 8.6
28 Moussa Sissoko 5.3 Tottenham 0.19 0.18 57 10.7
29 Pedro 7.7 Chelsea 0.23 0.11 56 7.3
30 Christian Atsu 4.8 Newcastle United 0.21 0.14 56 11.6
31 Luciano Narsingh 4.7 Swansea 0.19 0.16 54 11.6
32 Ruben Loftus-Cheek 4.4 Crystal Palace 0.17 0.19 54 12.3
33 Junior Stanislas 5.9 Bournemouth 0.21 0.12 54 9.1
34 Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain 5.6 Liverpool 0.15 0.22 54 9.6
35 Cesc Fàbregas 6.8 Chelsea 0.10 0.29 52 7.7
36 Dusan Tadic 6.2 Southampton 0.15 0.20 51 8.3
37 Jordon Ibe 4.7 Bournemouth 0.15 0.19 50 10.7
38 Jason Puncheon 4.4 Crystal Palace 0.22 0.07 50 11.3
39 Xherdan Shaqiri 6.3 Stoke 0.14 0.20 49 7.8
40 Tom Ince 5.5 Huddersfield 0.22 0.06 49 8.8
41 José Izquierdo 5.9 Brighton 0.17 0.14 48 8.2
42 Chris Brunt 5.0 WBA 0.05 0.34 48 9.7
43 Pascal Groß 6.0 Brighton 0.07 0.30 48 7.9
44 Anthony Knockaert 5.5 Brighton 0.17 0.13 47 8.6
45 Roberto Pereyra 5.8 Watford 0.15 0.16 47 8.1
46 André Ayew 6.8 Swansea 0.22 0.04 46 6.8
47 James Ward-Prowse 5.1 Southampton 0.11 0.22 46 9.0
48 Nathan Redmond 5.9 Southampton 0.10 0.23 45 7.7
49 Manuel Lanzini 6.6 West Ham 0.13 0.18 45 6.9

FORWARDS ATTACK RANKING

Ovr Rank Player Club Val £m NP xG xA Proj Pts £Pts/m
1 Olivier Giroud 8.2 Chelsea 1.13 0.36 213 26.0
2 Sergio Agüero 11.9 Manchester City 0.70 0.29 139 11.7
3 Gabriel Jesus 9.9 Manchester City 0.81 0.13 138 13.9
4 Harry Kane 12.9 Tottenham 0.80 0.11 134 10.4
5 Charlie Austin 5.8 Southampton 0.73 0.03 114 19.7
6 Álvaro Morata 10.4 Chelsea 0.63 0.14 112 10.7
7 Oumar Niasse 4.9 Everton 0.57 0.12 100 20.5
8 Alexandre Lacazette 10.2 Arsenal 0.51 0.16 96 9.4
9 Shinji Okazaki 5.3 Leicester 0.56 0.07 93 17.6
10 Romelu Lukaku 11.2 Manchester United 0.47 0.16 90 8.0
11 Daniel Sturridge 7.9 WBA 0.47 0.15 89 11.2
12 Dwight Gayle 6.1 Newcastle United 0.43 0.14 81 13.3
13 Roberto Firmino 9.4 Liverpool 0.31 0.29 80 8.5
14 Marcus Rashford 7.3 Manchester United 0.30 0.28 78 10.6
15 Andre Gray 6.3 Watford 0.42 0.12 78 12.3
16 Danny Welbeck 7.3 Arsenal 0.38 0.12 71 9.8
17 Peter Crouch 4.8 Stoke 0.25 0.25 67 13.9
18 Chris Wood 6.2 Burnley 0.39 0.04 64 10.3
19 Jermain Defoe 7.6 Bournemouth 0.34 0.07 60 7.9
20 Tammy Abraham 5.4 Swansea 0.34 0.07 60 11.0
21 Chicharito 6.7 West Ham 0.31 0.08 56 8.4
22 Sam Vokes 5.7 Burnley 0.26 0.13 54 9.5
23 Joselu 5.5 Newcastle United 0.30 0.07 54 9.7
24 Steve Mounie 5.8 Huddersfield 0.28 0.09 53 9.1
25 Ayoze Pérez 5.2 Newcastle United 0.19 0.21 53 10.2
26 Glenn Murray 5.9 Brighton 0.31 0.04 52 8.8
27 Callum Wilson 5.9 Bournemouth 0.27 0.08 50 8.5
28 Ashley Barnes 5.3 Burnley 0.28 0.06 49 9.3
29 Jamie Vardy 8.7 Leicester 0.24 0.09 47 5.4
30 Mame Biram Diouf 5.2 Stoke 0.25 0.06 45 8.6
31 Dominic Calvert-Lewin 5.0 Everton 0.22 0.10 45 9.0
32 Salomón Rondón 6.0 WBA 0.25 0.05 44 7.3
33 Joshua King 7.0 Bournemouth 0.17 0.14 42 6.0
34 Collin Quaner 4.6 Huddersfield 0.11 0.22 42 9.1
35 Hal Robson-Kanu 4.9 WBA 0.21 0.04 36 7.4
36 André Carrillo 6.4 Watford 0.11 0.17 36 5.6
37 Jay Rodriguez 5.3 WBA 0.19 0.06 36 6.7
38 Troy Deeney 6.3 Watford 0.14 0.12 35 5.5
39 Andy Carroll 5.7 West Ham 0.18 0.06 34 6.0
40 Shane Long 5.6 Southampton 0.17 0.07 34 6.0
41 Jordan Ayew 5.4 Swansea 0.17 0.06 33 6.1
42 Laurent Depoitre 5.1 Huddersfield 0.15 0.08 32 6.3
43 Wilfried Bony 5.6 Swansea 0.19 0.02 31 5.6
44 Tomer Hemed 4.7 Brighton 0.18 0.01 29 6.1
45 Manolo Gabbiadini 6.2 Southampton 0.10 0.04 20 3.2



AN NPXG90 AND XA90 TEAM FOR GW31 ONLY




 Here I pick a team for GW31 only.  An expected goals/assists free hit team if you like.  It is stats over the season and it doesn’t take into account the quality of the opponent

For the defence I took the 7 teams with the best clean sheet prospects (obviously that’s the 8 teams excluding Watford).  I have then looked for the 5 best attacking defenders and then the 6th and 7th become the GKs.  Hopefully that makes sense.

That strategy for defence means only 2 attacking Liverpool players so I have just picked the 2 with the most projected points (Mane and Salah)  under the assumptions above.

The rest are the players with the most projected points in the 8 teams with regard to gametime security.

Minimum 500 minutes played applies (except I made an exception for Coleman as I wanted to compare him to Baines).  I haven’t included Tosun though as to new to the league.

Hope that’s all clear

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