FPL underlying stats GW32 – expected goals totals


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Here’s our FPL underlying stats GW32 article where we presented expected goals totals up to and including GW31. We look at stats for individual players by position including projected attacking points as well as a points per million calculation. There’s also a GW32  xG/xA team at the end as a summary to help you think about this weeks transfers.

FPL UNDERLYING STATS GW32 – EXPECTED GOALS TOTALS

There’s alot of stats to come so if you’d rather just look at the best expected goals/assists players for GW32 then go to the team at the end of the article.




BACKGROUND

Expected goals is a stat where the probability is evaluated that any given shot will end up as a goal.

Expected goals are based on a number of factors, such as where the shot was taken from and where the opposition defenders are at the time. The shot assumes it is being taken by someone of average ability in the league. To state the obvious , a shot from inside the 6 yard box in front of goal with no defenders around will have a very high probability it will end up as a goal.

In essence it shows you what should have happened rather than what has happened.

The expected goals are now all wholly from the excellent free site understat.com

TEAM RANKINGS FOR DEFENCE AND ATTACK

Here I rank the teams overall for defence and attack and then home and away by expected goals

TEAM DEFENCE

Ovr Rank xGA   Home Away
1 Manchester City 1 1
2 Tottenham 2 3
3 Chelsea 4 2
4 Liverpool 3 4
5 Manchester United 5 5
6 Leicester 10 6
7 Brighton 9 8
8 Arsenal 13 7
9 WBA 8 10
10 Southampton 6 13
11 Burnley 14 9
12 Huddersfield 15 11
13 Newcastle United 12 14
14 Crystal Palace 11 17
15 Watford 18 12
16 Swansea 17 15
17 West Ham 7 20
18 Everton 16 18
19 Stoke 19 16
20 Bournemouth 20 19

Team Attack

Ovr Rank xG   Home Away
1 Manchester City 1 1
2 Liverpool 3 2
3 Tottenham 4 3
4 Arsenal 2 10
5 Manchester United 5 4
6 Chelsea 6 5
7 Crystal Palace 7 8
8 Leicester 8 7
9 Watford 14 6
10 Everton 10 11
11 Newcastle United 16 9
12 Southampton 9 14
13 West Ham 19 12
14 Bournemouth 13 15
15 Stoke 12 18
16 WBA 15 13
17 Brighton 11 19
18 Huddersfield 18 17
19 Burnley 20 16
20 Swansea 17 20

METHOD AND CAVEATS FOR PLAYER RANKINGS

This is just one part of ranking players it’s not the be all and end all. I do a player rankings series which uses more stats than just xG and xA. There’s no filtering here for gametime security or injuries.

Here I have taken the Non penalty xG per 90 minutes (NPxG90) and the xA and converted them into goals and assist points and then total points as if they were playing over the whole season 90 minutes each game. I haven’t added on appearance points, adjusted for average minutes or bonus points or clean sheets for defenders. It’s purely just the goals and assist points. There was a minimum minutes played of 500 minutes. I’ve also added a points per million column.

Players don’t perform on a straight line with the stats. Some like Hazard and De Bruyne have shown they can over perform. Others like Tadic have a history of under performing. I have not tried to adjust for this. That’s more for the player rankings articles.

Don’t concentrate too much on the points. They are principally for ranking purposes. If you wonder why the random numbers of players it’s because I went down to a certain threshold and then it was whatever number of players ended up.

This article is very time consuming and laborious and easy to make mistakes so apologies if there is any

Player Stat abbreviations

Value £m: The FPL price at the time of the article. In this case the 27 March

NP xG90: the non penalty expected goals per 90 minutes played

xA90: the expected assists per 90 minutes played

ProjPts: the projected attacking points based on the current NPxG90 and xA90 if the player played 38 games 90 minutes in each. No points for starting,no bonus, no clean sheet points, just goals and assists points.

Pts/£m: the projected points above per £m value. This is for Mids and Fwds only. An average is around 10 and it gives you an indication of value for money. The average is around 10.

Defenders attack ranking

Rank Player Team £m NPxG90 xA Proj Pts
1 Davide Zappacosta Chelsea 5.9 0.14 0.11 44
2 Marcos Alonso Chelsea 7.2 0.13 0.11 42
3 Sead Kolasinac Arsenal 5.8 0.08 0.20 41
4 Victor Moses Chelsea 6.5 0.13 0.09 40
5 Scott Dann Crystal Palace 4.6 0.15 0.01 35
6 Mamadou Sakho Crystal Palace 4.6 0.14 0.03 35
7 Virgil van Dijk Liverpool 5.7 0.09 0.12 34
8 James Milner Liverpool 6.0 0.07 0.15 33
9 Serge Aurier Tottenham 5.9 0.05 0.19 33
10 Miguel Britos Watford 4.3 0.09 0.10 32
11 Patrick van Aanholt Crystal Palace 5.1 0.09 0.10 32
12 Ben Davies Tottenham 5.9 0.05 0.17 31
13 Ciaran Clark Newcastle United 4.4 0.11 0.05 31
14 Eric Bailly Manchester United 6.0 0.12 0.02 30
15 Héctor Bellerín Arsenal 5.9 0.08 0.10 30
16 Nacho Monreal Arsenal 5.5 0.08 0.10 30
17 Andrew Robertson Liverpool 5.0 0.02 0.21 29
18 Joel Matip Liverpool 5.4 0.11 0.03 29
19 Harry Maguire Leicester 5.6 0.05 0.14 27
20 Kieran Trippier Tottenham 5.2 0.02 0.20 27
21 Daryl Janmaat Watford 4.8 0.10 0.03 26
22 Craig Dawson WBA 4.8 0.10 0.03 26
23 Nicolás Otamendi Manchester City 6.4 0.10 0.02 25
24 Dejan Lovren Liverpool 5.3 0.08 0.06 25
25 Ryan Shawcross Stoke 4.8 0.10 0.01 24
26 Wesley Hoedt Southampton 5.0 0.09 0.03 24
27 José Holebas Watford 4.8 0.02 0.16 23
28 Kyle Walker Manchester City 6.6 0.02 0.16 23
29 John Stones Manchester City 5.3 0.10 0.00 23
30 James Tomkins Crystal Palace 4.4 0.10 0.00 23
31 Laurent Koscielny Arsenal 6.0 0.09 0.02 23
32 Ryan Bertrand Southampton 5.3 0.06 0.08 23
33 Lewis Dunk Brighton 4.5 0.09 0.01 22
34 Danny Rose Tottenham 6.4 0.06 0.07 22
35 Alexander-Arnold Liverpool 4.3 0.03 0.13 22
36 Alfie Mawson Swansea 5.1 0.08 0.02 21
37 Wes Morgan Leicester 4.4 0.08 0.02 21
38 Jonny Evans WBA 4.9 0.07 0.04 21
39 Shane Duffy Brighton 4.6 0.07 0.04 21
40 César Azpilicueta Chelsea 6.9 0.02 0.13 19
41 Leighton Baines Everton 5.6 0.03 0.11 19
42 David Luiz Chelsea 5.7 0.08 0.00 18
43 Jeffrey Schlupp Crystal Palace 4.7 0.05 0.06 18
44 Ragnar Klavan Liverpool 4.1 0.07 0.01 17
45 Ahmed Hegazy WBA 4.7 0.07 0.01 17
46 Zanka Huddersfield 4.5 0.07 0.01 17
47 Sebastian Prödl Watford 4.3 0.06 0.02 16
48 Aaron Cresswell West Ham 5.0 0.01 0.12 16
49 Jack Stephens Southampton 4.5 0.06 0.01 15
50 Jamaal Lascelles Newcastle United 4.7 0.06 0.01 15
51 Ben Mee Burnley 4.9 0.06 0.01 15
52 Ben Chilwell Leicester 4.3 0.01 0.11 15
53 Arthur Masuaku West Ham 4.2 0.01 0.11 15
54 Tommy Smith Huddersfield 4.7 0.01 0.11 15
55 Cédric Soares Southampton 4.7 0.03 0.07 15

Midfield attack ranking

Rank Player Team £m NPxG90 xA Proj Pts Pts/£m
1 Mohamed Salah Liverpool 10.7 0.73 0.26 168 15.7
2 Raheem Sterling Manchester City 8.6 0.56 0.31 142 16.5
3 Son Heung-Min Tottenham 8.3 0.48 0.28 123 14.8
4 David Silva Manchester City 8.1 0.39 0.32 111 13.7
5 Sadio Mané Liverpool 9.5 0.45 0.21 109 11.5
6 Alexis Sánchez Manchester United 11.5 0.39 0.29 107 9.3
7 Jesse Lingard Manchester United 6.0 0.45 0.18 106 17.7
8 Anthony Martial Manchester United 7.9 0.35 0.34 105 13.3
9 Aaron Ramsey Arsenal 6.9 0.38 0.25 101 14.6
10 Leroy Sané Manchester City 8.6 0.28 0.36 94 11.0
11 Theo Walcott Everton 7.1 0.33 0.26 92 13.0
12 Dele Alli Tottenham 8.9 0.30 0.29 90 10.1
13 Marko Arnautovic West Ham 6.9 0.38 0.15 89 12.9
14 Eden Hazard Chelsea 10.6 0.26 0.29 82 7.8
15 Paul Pogba Manchester United 7.8 0.33 0.17 82 10.5
16 Willian Chelsea 7.1 0.25 0.30 82 11.5
17 Christian Eriksen Tottenham 9.4 0.21 0.36 81 8.6
18 Mesut Özil Arsenal 9.3 0.19 0.38 79 8.5
19 Richarlison Watford 6.0 0.33 0.13 78 12.9
20 Kevin De Bruyne Manchester City 10.4 0.16 0.40 76 7.3
21 Bernardo Silva Manchester City 7.4 0.26 0.21 73 9.9
22 Riyad Mahrez Leicester 8.9 0.21 0.27 71 7.9
23 Wilfried Zaha Crystal Palace 6.8 0.26 0.18 70 10.3
24 Alex Iwobi Arsenal 5.1 0.25 0.18 68 13.3
25 Henrikh Mkhitaryan Arsenal 7.7 0.11 0.40 67 8.6
26 Choupo-Moting Stoke 5.4 0.25 0.13 62 11.5
27 Juan Mata Manchester United 6.8 0.17 0.23 59 8.6
28 Moussa Sissoko Tottenham 5.3 0.19 0.18 57 10.7
29 Pedro Chelsea 7.7 0.23 0.11 56 7.3
30 Christian Atsu Newcastle United 4.8 0.21 0.14 56 11.6
31 Luciano Narsingh Swansea 4.7 0.19 0.16 54 11.6
32 Loftus-Cheek Crystal Palace 4.4 0.17 0.19 54 12.3
33 Oxlade-Chamberlain Liverpool 5.6 0.15 0.22 54 9.6
34 Junior Stanislas Bournemouth 6.0 0.21 0.11 52 8.7
35 Cesc Fàbregas Chelsea 6.8 0.10 0.29 52 7.7
36 Yannick Bolasie Everton 6.4 0.24 0.05 51 8.0
37 Dusan Tadic Southampton 6.2 0.15 0.20 51 8.3
38 Jason Puncheon Crystal Palace 4.4 0.22 0.07 50 11.3
39 Xherdan Shaqiri Stoke 0.4 0.14 0.20 49 123.5
40 Tom Ince Huddersfield 5.5 0.22 0.06 49 8.8
41 José Izquierdo Brighton 5.9 0.17 0.14 48 8.2
42 Pascal Groß Brighton 6.0 0.07 0.30 48 7.9
43 Jordon Ibe Bournemouth 4.7 0.14 0.18 47 10.0
44 Anthony Knockaert Brighton 5.5 0.17 0.13 47 8.6
45 Roberto Pereyra Watford 5.8 0.15 0.16 47 8.1
46 André Ayew Swansea 6.8 0.22 0.04 46 6.8
47 Ward-Prowse Southampton 5.1 0.11 0.22 46 9.0
48 Manuel Lanzini West Ham 6.6 0.13 0.18 45 6.9
49 Nathan Redmond Southampton 5.9 0.10 0.23 45 7.7
50 Ilkay Gündogan Manchester City 5.3 0.13 0.17 44 8.3

Forwards attack ranking

Rank Player Team £m NPxG90 xA Proj Pts Pts/£m
1 Olivier Giroud Chelsea 8.2 1.13 0.36 213 26.0
2 Sergio Agüero Manchester City 11.7 0.70 0.29 139 11.9
3 Gabriel Jesus Manchester City 10.0 0.81 0.13 138 13.8
4 Harry Kane Tottenham 12.7 0.80 0.11 134 10.6
5 Charlie Austin Southampton 5.8 0.73 0.03 114 19.7
6 Álvaro Morata Chelsea 10.4 0.63 0.14 112 10.7
7 Oumar Niasse Everton 4.8 0.57 0.12 100 20.9
8 Alexandre Lacazette Arsenal 10.2 0.51 0.16 96 9.4
9 Shinji Okazaki Leicester 5.3 0.56 0.07 93 17.6
10 Romelu Lukaku Manchester United 11.4 0.47 0.16 90 7.9
11 Daniel Sturridge WBA 7.9 0.47 0.15 89 11.2
12 Dwight Gayle Newcastle United 6.1 0.43 0.14 81 13.3
13 Roberto Firmino Liverpool 9.7 0.32 0.28 81 8.3
14 Marcus Rashford Manchester United 7.4 0.30 0.28 78 10.5
15 Andre Gray Watford 6.3 0.42 0.12 78 12.3
16 Christian Benteke Crystal Palace 7.7 0.38 0.14 74 9.6
17 Danny Welbeck Arsenal 7.3 0.38 0.12 71 9.8
18 Chris Wood Burnley 6.2 0.39 0.04 64 10.3
19 Peter Crouch Stoke 4.8 0.24 0.23 63 13.1
20 Tammy Abraham Swansea 5.4 0.34 0.07 60 11.0
21 Jermain Defoe Bournemouth 7.6 0.34 0.06 59 7.7
22 Calvert-Lewin Everton 5.0 0.28 0.14 59 11.7
23 Chicharito West Ham 6.7 0.31 0.08 56 8.4
24 Sam Vokes Burnley 5.7 0.26 0.13 54 9.5
25 Joselu Newcastle United 5.5 0.30 0.07 54 9.7
26 Ayoze Pérez Newcastle United 5.2 0.19 0.21 53 10.2
27 Glenn Murray Brighton 6.0 0.31 0.04 52 8.6
28 Steve Mounie Huddersfield 5.9 0.27 0.09 51 8.7
29 Ashley Barnes Burnley 5.3 0.28 0.06 49 9.3
30 Callum Wilson Bournemouth 6.0 0.26 0.08 49 8.1
31 Jamie Vardy Leicester 8.8 0.24 0.09 47 5.3
32 Salomón Rondón West Bromwich Albion 6.0 0.25 0.07 46 7.7
33 Mame Biram Diouf Stoke 5.2 0.25 0.06 45 8.6
34 Joshua King Bournemouth 7.0 0.16 0.14 40 5.8
35 Wayne Rooney Everton 7.2 0.19 0.10 40 5.6
36 Collin Quaner Huddersfield 4.6 0.10 0.21 39 8.5
37 Jay Rodriguez WBA 5.3 0.21 0.06 39 7.3
38 Hal Robson-Kanu WBA 4.9 0.22 0.04 38 7.8
39 Andy Carroll West Ham 5.7 0.18 0.06 34 6.0
40 Shane Long Southampton 5.6 0.17 0.07 34 6.0
41 Troy Deeney Watford 6.3 0.13 0.12 33 5.3
42 Jordan Ayew Swansea 5.3 0.17 0.06 33 6.2
43 Laurent Depoitre Huddersfield 5.1 0.15 0.08 32 6.3
44 Wilfried Bony Swansea 5.6 0.19 0.02 31 5.6
45 Tomer Hemed Brighton 4.7 0.18 0.01 29 6.1
46 Manolo Gabbiadini Southampton 6.2 0.10 0.04 20 3.2

The XG/XA Team

Here’s a team made up of the 8 teams that have a DGW34.  Those being.  Spurs, Chelsea, Man Utd, Southampton, Leicester, Brighton, Burnley and Bournemouth

I’ve kept Salah in as most people will.

In defence I’ve gone for Lloris as GK as only Vertonghen is gametime certain and has minimal attacking threat.

In midfield and attack I’ve tried to go for 1 player from each of the teams looking at the ranking and value for money factor

Here’s the team:




fpl underlying stats gw32

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