FPL underlying stats GW33 – expected goals totals

Here’s our FPL underlying stats GW33 article where we presented expected goals totals up to and including GW32. We look at stats for individual players by position including projected attacking points as well as a points per million calculation. There’s also a GW33 xG/xA wildcard team at the end as a summary to help you think about this weeks transfers.

FPL UNDERLYING STATS GW33 – EXPECTED GOALS TOTALS

There’s alot of stats to come so if you’d rather just look at the wildcard team for GW33 then go to  the end of the article.

BACKGROUND

Expected goals is a stat where the probability is evaluated that any given shot will end up as a goal.

Expected goals are based on a number of factors, such as where the shot was taken from and where the opposition defenders are at the time. The shot assumes it is being taken by someone of average ability in the league. To state the obvious , a shot from inside the 6 yard box in front of goal with no defenders around will have a very high probability it will end up as a goal.

In essence it shows you what should have happened rather than what has happened.

The expected goals are now all wholly from the excellent free site understat.com




TEAM RANKINGS FOR DEFENCE AND ATTACK

Here I rank the teams overall for defence and attack and then home and away by expected goals

TEAM DEFENCE

Ovr Rank xGA   Home Rank Away Rank
1 Manchester City 1 1
2 Tottenham 2 3
3 Chelsea 4 2
4 Liverpool 3 6
5 Manchester United 5 4
6 Leicester 8 8
7 Arsenal 12 5
8 Brighton 10 7
9 WBA 9 9
10 Southampton 6 12
11 Burnley 13 10
12 Newcastle United 11 13
13 Huddersfield 14 14
14 Crystal Palace 15 15
15 West Ham 7 20
16 Watford 18 11
17 Swansea 16 17
18 Everton 17 16
19 Bournemouth 20 18
20 Stoke 19 19

TEAM ATTACK

Ovr Rank xG   Home Rank Away Rank
1 Manchester City 1 1
2 Liverpool 3 2
3 Tottenham 4 3
4 Arsenal 2 10
5 Manchester United 5 4
6 Chelsea 6 5
7 Crystal Palace 7 8
8 Leicester 8 7
9 Watford 14 6
10 Newcastle United 12 9
11 Everton 9 11
12 Southampton 10 15
13 Bournemouth 15 13
14 West Ham 18 12
15 Brighton 11 19
16 Stoke 13 18
17 WBA 16 16
18 Huddersfield 19 17
19 Burnley 20 14
20 Swansea 17 20

METHOD AND CAVEATS FOR PLAYER RANKINGS

This is just one part of ranking players it’s not the be all and end all. I do a player rankings series which uses more stats than just xG and xA. There’s no filtering here for gametime security or injuries.

Here I have taken the Non penalty xG per 90 minutes (NPxG90) and the xA and converted them into goals and assist points and then total points as if they were playing over the whole season 90 minutes each game. I haven’t added on appearance points, adjusted for average minutes or bonus points or clean sheets for defenders. It’s purely just the goals and assist points. There was a minimum minutes played of 500 minutes. I’ve also added a points per million column.

Players don’t perform on a straight line with the stats. Some like Hazard and De Bruyne have shown they can over perform. Others like Tadic have a history of under performing. I have not tried to adjust for this. That’s more for the player rankings articles.

Don’t concentrate too much on the points. They are principally for ranking purposes. If you wonder why the random numbers of players it’s because I went down to a certain threshold and then it was whatever number of players ended up.

This article is very time consuming and laborious and easy to make mistakes so apologies if there is any

Player Stat abbreviations

Value £m: The FPL price at the time of the article. In this case the 3rd April

NP xG90: the non penalty expected goals per 90 minutes played

xA90: the expected assists per 90 minutes played

ProjPts: the projected attacking points based on the current NPxG90 and xA90 if the player played 38 games 90 minutes in each. No points for starting,no bonus, no clean sheet points, just goals and assists points.

Pts/£m: the projected points above per £m value. This is for Mids and Fwds only. An average is around 10 and it gives you an indication of value for money. The average is around 10.

DEFENDERS ATTACK RANKING

Rank     £m NPxG90 xA90 Proj Pts
1 Davide Zappacosta Chelsea 5.9 0.14 0.11 44
2 Marcos Alonso Chelsea 7.2 0.13 0.11 42
3 Sead Kolasinac Arsenal 5.8 0.08 0.20 41
4 Victor Moses Chelsea 6.5 0.12 0.11 40
5 Calum Chambers Arsenal 4.7 0.16 0.02 39
6 James Milner Liverpool 6.0 0.07 0.19 38
7 Scott Dann Crystal Palace 4.6 0.15 0.01 35
8 Virgil van Dijk Liverpool 5.7 0.09 0.12 34
9 Nacho Monreal Arsenal 5.6 0.08 0.13 33
10 Serge Aurier Tottenham 5.9 0.05 0.19 33
11 Miguel Britos Watford 4.3 0.09 0.10 32
12 Mamadou Sakho Crystal Palace 4.6 0.13 0.02 32
13 Ciaran Clark Newcastle United 4.4 0.11 0.05 31
14 Andrew Robertson Liverpool 5.1 0.02 0.23 31
15 Ben Davies Tottenham 5.9 0.05 0.17 31
16 Eric Bailly Manchester United 6.0 0.12 0.02 30
17 Héctor Bellerín Arsenal 5.9 0.08 0.10 30
18 Maya Yoshida Southampton 4.6 0.11 0.03 29
19 Joel Matip Liverpool 5.4 0.11 0.03 29
20 Patrick van Aanholt Crystal Palace 5.1 0.08 0.09 29
21 Daryl Janmaat Watford 4.8 0.10 0.03 26
22 Harry Maguire Leicester 5.6 0.05 0.13 26
23 Kieran Trippier Tottenham 5.2 0.02 0.19 26
24 Nicolás Otamendi Manchester City 6.4 0.10 0.02 25
25 Dejan Lovren Liverpool 5.3 0.08 0.06 25
26 Craig Dawson WBA 4.8 0.09 0.03 24
27 John Stones Manchester City 5.3 0.10 0.00 23
28 James Tomkins Crystal Palace 4.4 0.10 0.00 23
29 Laurent Koscielny Arsenal 6.0 0.09 0.02 23
30 Kyle Walker Manchester City 6.6 0.02 0.16 23
31 José Holebas Watford 4.8 0.02 0.16 23
32 Ryan Bertrand Southampton 5.3 0.06 0.08 23
33 Ryan Shawcross Stoke 4.8 0.09 0.01 22
34 Danny Rose Tottenham 6.4 0.06 0.07 22
35 Trent Alexander-Arnold Liverpool 4.3 0.03 0.13 22
36 Wesley Hoedt Southampton 5.0 0.08 0.03 22
37 Alfie Mawson Swansea 5.1 0.08 0.02 21
38 Jonny Evans WBA 4.9 0.07 0.04 21
39 Leighton Baines Everton 5.6 0.03 0.11 19
40 Lewis Dunk Brighton 4.5 0.08 0.01 19
41 Nathan Aké Bournemouth 5.1 0.05 0.06 18
42 Jeffrey Schlupp Crystal Palace 4.7 0.05 0.06 18
43 David Luiz Chelsea 5.7 0.08 0.00 18
44 Shane Duffy Brighton 4.6 0.06 0.04 18
45 Wes Morgan Leicester 4.4 0.07 0.01 17
46 Ragnar Klavan Liverpool 4.1 0.07 0.01 17
47 Zanka Huddersfield 4.5 0.07 0.01 17
48 Ahmed Hegazy WBA 4.7 0.07 0.01 17
49 Ben Chilwell Leicester 4.4 0.01 0.12 16
50 Aaron Cresswell West Ham 5.0 0.01 0.12 16

MIDFIELD ATTACK RANKING

Rank     £m NPxG90 xA90 Proj Pts Pts per £m
1 Mohamed Salah Liverpool 10.7 0.73 0.26 168 15.7
2 Raheem Sterling Manchester City 8.7 0.56 0.30 141 16.2
3 Son Heung-Min Tottenham 8.3 0.48 0.27 122 14.7
4 David Silva Manchester City 8.1 0.39 0.34 113 13.9
5 Sadio Mané Liverpool 9.5 0.47 0.20 112 11.8
6 Alexis Sánchez Manchester United 11.5 0.40 0.28 108 9.4
7 Anthony Martial Manchester United 7.9 0.35 0.34 105 13.3
8 Jesse Lingard Manchester United 6.0 0.45 0.17 105 17.5
9 Aaron Ramsey Arsenal 6.9 0.37 0.24 98 14.2
10 Marko Arnautovic West Ham 6.9 0.42 0.14 96 13.9
11 Dele Alli Tottenham 8.9 0.33 0.28 95 10.6
12 Erik Lamela Tottenham 6.3 0.34 0.25 93 14.8
13 Leroy Sané Manchester City 8.6 0.28 0.35 93 10.8
14 Theo Walcott Arsenal, Everton 6.9 0.29 0.26 85 12.3
15 Paul Pogba Manchester United 7.8 0.31 0.21 83 10.6
16 Kenedy Newcastle United 4.8 0.27 0.26 81 16.9
17 Willian Chelsea 7.1 0.25 0.29 81 11.3
18 Christian Eriksen Tottenham 9.4 0.20 0.35 78 8.3
19 Richarlison Watford 6.0 0.33 0.13 78 12.9
20 Eden Hazard Chelsea 10.6 0.24 0.28 78 7.3
21 Mesut Özil Arsenal 9.3 0.18 0.38 78 8.3
22 Kevin De Bruyne Manchester City 10.4 0.16 0.41 77 7.4
23 Bernardo Silva Manchester City 8.1 0.26 0.20 72 8.9
24 Wilfried Zaha Crystal Palace 6.8 0.27 0.17 71 10.4
25 Riyad Mahrez Leicester 8.9 0.21 0.26 70 7.8
26 Alex Iwobi Arsenal 5.1 0.25 0.18 68 13.3
27 Henrikh Mkhitaryan Arsenal 7.8 0.12 0.39 67 8.6
28 Eric Maxim Choupo-Moting Stoke 5.4 0.25 0.13 62 11.5
29 Juan Mata Manchester United 6.8 0.19 0.22 61 9.0
30 Moussa Sissoko Tottenham 5.3 0.19 0.18 57 10.7
31 Pedro Chelsea 7.7 0.23 0.11 56 7.3
32 Junior Stanislas Bournemouth 6.0 0.21 0.13 55 9.1
33 Luciano Narsingh Swansea 4.7 0.19 0.16 54 11.6
34 Ruben Loftus-Cheek Crystal Palace 4.4 0.17 0.19 54 12.3
35 Christian Atsu Newcastle United 4.8 0.20 0.14 54 11.2
36 Yannick Bolasie Everton 6.4 0.25 0.05 53 8.3
37 Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain Arsenal, Liverpool 5.6 0.14 0.22 52 9.2
38 Cesc Fàbregas Chelsea 6.8 0.10 0.28 51 7.5
39 Demarai Gray Leicester 5.3 0.15 0.19 50 9.5
40 Jason Puncheon Crystal Palace 4.4 0.22 0.07 50 11.3
41 Tom Ince Huddersfield 5.5 0.22 0.06 49 8.8
42 Dusan Tadic Southampton 6.2 0.14 0.19 48 7.8
43 Xherdan Shaqiri Stoke 6.3 0.14 0.19 48 7.7
44 Pascal Groß Brighton 6.0 0.07 0.30 48 7.9
45 José Izquierdo Brighton 5.9 0.17 0.13 47 8.0
46 Anthony Knockaert Brighton 5.5 0.17 0.13 47 8.6
47 Jordon Ibe Bournemouth 4.7 0.14 0.18 47 10.0
48 James Ward-Prowse Southampton 5.0 0.11 0.22 46 9.2

FORWARDS ATTACK RANKING

Rank     £m NPxG90 xA90 Proj Pts Pts per £m
1 Olivier Giroud Arsenal 8.2 1.12 0.36 211 25.8
2 Sergio Agüero Manchester City 11.7 0.70 0.29 139 11.9
3 Gabriel Jesus Manchester City 10.0 0.79 0.12 134 13.4
4 Harry Kane Tottenham 12.7 0.79 0.11 133 10.4
5 Álvaro Morata Chelsea 10.4 0.63 0.14 112 10.7
6 Charlie Austin Southampton 5.8 0.67 0.03 105 18.1
7 Oumar Niasse Everton 4.8 0.59 0.12 103 21.5
8 Alexandre Lacazette Arsenal 10.2 0.50 0.16 94 9.2
9 Romelu Lukaku Manchester United 11.6 0.48 0.18 93 8.1
10 Shinji Okazaki Leicester 5.3 0.53 0.07 89 16.7
11 Daniel Sturridge WBA 7.9 0.47 0.15 89 11.2
12 Dwight Gayle Newcastle United 6.1 0.46 0.13 85 13.9
13 Aubameyang Arsenal 10.8 0.51 0.05 83 7.7
14 Cenk Tosun Everton 6.9 0.41 0.18 83 12.0
15 Roberto Firmino Liverpool 9.7 0.31 0.27 78 8.0
16 Marcus Rashford Manchester United 7.4 0.30 0.28 78 10.5
17 Andre Gray Watford 6.3 0.42 0.12 78 12.3
18 Christian Benteke Crystal Palace 7.6 0.40 0.13 76 10.0
19 Chris Wood Burnley 6.3 0.45 0.04 73 11.6
20 Jermain Defoe Bournemouth 7.6 0.40 0.06 68 8.9
21 Danny Welbeck Arsenal 7.3 0.36 0.11 67 9.2
22 Tammy Abraham Swansea 5.4 0.34 0.07 60 11.0
23 Peter Crouch Stoke 4.8 0.24 0.20 59 12.4
24 Ayoze Pérez Newcastle United 5.2 0.22 0.21 57 11.0
25 Calvert-Lewin Everton 5.0 0.26 0.15 57 11.3
26 Chicharito West Ham 6.7 0.31 0.08 56 8.4
27 Joselu Newcastle United 5.5 0.30 0.07 54 9.7
28 Glenn Murray Brighton 6.0 0.32 0.04 53 8.9
29 Sam Vokes Burnley 5.7 0.26 0.12 53 9.3
30 Steve Mounie Huddersfield 5.8 0.27 0.09 51 8.8
31 Jamie Vardy Leicester 8.9 0.27 0.09 51 5.8
32 Ashley Barnes Burnley 5.4 0.28 0.05 48 8.9
33 Callum Wilson Bournemouth 5.9 0.25 0.08 47 8.0
34 Salomón Rondón WBA 6.0 0.24 0.07 44 7.4
35 Mame Biram Diouf Stoke 5.2 0.24 0.06 43 8.3
36 Wayne Rooney Everton 7.2 0.19 0.10 40 5.6
37 Joshua King Bournemouth 7.0 0.16 0.14 40 5.8
38 Jay Rodriguez WBA 5.3 0.21 0.06 39 7.3
39 Collin Quaner Huddersfield 4.6 0.10 0.20 38 8.3
40 Hal Robson-Kanu WBA 4.9 0.22 0.04 38 7.8
41 Shane Long Southampton 5.6 0.17 0.08 35 6.2
42 Andy Carroll West Ham 5.7 0.18 0.06 34 6.0
43 Jordan Ayew Swansea 5.3 0.17 0.06 33 6.2
44 Troy Deeney Watford 6.3 0.13 0.11 32 5.1
45 Wilfried Bony Swansea 5.6 0.19 0.02 31 5.6
46 Laurent Depoitre Huddersfield 5.1 0.14 0.08 30 6.0
47 Tomer Hemed Brighton 4.7 0.18 0.01 29 6.1
48 Manolo Gabbiadini Southampton 6.2 0.10 0.04 20 3.2

THE XG/XA wildcard team

 As you may know I have 3 alternate FFGeek teams which you can see in this link.  One is a team based on nothing but expected goal and assist information.  The team has it’s wildcard, Bench Boost, Triple Captain and Free Hit in place and currently has an OR of 77k.  It will follow the general plan of WC 33, BB34 FH 35 and TC 37

So with the bench boost in GW34 the idea is to have 14 DGW34 players plus Salah.  I’ve therefore looked to get a defender from 7 of the 8 teams that have a DGW34.

The 8 are Spurs, Chelsea, Man Utd, Southampton, Leicester, Brighton, Burnley and Bournemouth.

The defenders are more about value and gametime security than attacking potential and the 8 attackers are 1 player from 7 of the 8 teams in order of the value £m.

Here’s the team with their attacking ranking for their category and then it on the FPL site.  The wildcard has been played btw.

category rank value rank
De Gea n/a n/a
Ryan n/a n/a
Vertonghen didnt register n/a
Alonso 2 n/a
Cedric 63 n/a
Chilwell 49 n/a
Lowton 66 n/a
Salah 1 4
Willian 17 18
Lingard 8 1
Izquierdo 45 40
Mahrez 25 42
Austin 6 3
Wood 19 11
Kane 4 18

It’s worth mentioning that I didn’t put Son in as with Kane back and Lamela in the team I didn’t think his gametime was absolutely secure plus Kane also fits as a captain option for GW34.  Value wise it was also marginal between Kane and Alli but again Kane gave the captain option.  The team value is a pretty pathetic £100.6m

Here’s the lineup for GW33:




Follow us on twitter and facebook for article updates and news.

GEEK LEAGUES

Fantasy Premier League: 5379-1967
Sun: FantasyFootballGeek SGDKX9Y3
TFF: FantasyFootballGeek PIN 8000919 Passcode 1159
Sky: FFGeek 8310511

FANTASY PREMIER LEAGUE GW32 REVIEW BY JOSEPH CRILLEY

April 3, 2018

fantasy premier league GW33 transfer tips – the bandwagons and sinking ships

April 4, 2018

Comments

2 comments

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

This window will close in
10