Here’s our FPL underlying stats GW33 article where we presented expected goals totals up to and including GW32. We look at stats for individual players by position including projected attacking points as well as a points per million calculation. There’s also a GW33 xG/xA wildcard team at the end as a summary to help you think about this weeks transfers.
FPL UNDERLYING STATS GW33 – EXPECTED GOALS TOTALS
There’s alot of stats to come so if you’d rather just look at the wildcard team for GW33 then go to the end of the article.
BACKGROUND
Expected goals is a stat where the probability is evaluated that any given shot will end up as a goal.
Expected goals are based on a number of factors, such as where the shot was taken from and where the opposition defenders are at the time. The shot assumes it is being taken by someone of average ability in the league. To state the obvious , a shot from inside the 6 yard box in front of goal with no defenders around will have a very high probability it will end up as a goal.
In essence it shows you what should have happened rather than what has happened.
The expected goals are now all wholly from the excellent free site understat.com
TEAM RANKINGS FOR DEFENCE AND ATTACK
Here I rank the teams overall for defence and attack and then home and away by expected goals
TEAM DEFENCE
Ovr Rank xGA | Home Rank | Away Rank | |
1 | Manchester City | 1 | 1 |
2 | Tottenham | 2 | 3 |
3 | Chelsea | 4 | 2 |
4 | Liverpool | 3 | 6 |
5 | Manchester United | 5 | 4 |
6 | Leicester | 8 | 8 |
7 | Arsenal | 12 | 5 |
8 | Brighton | 10 | 7 |
9 | WBA | 9 | 9 |
10 | Southampton | 6 | 12 |
11 | Burnley | 13 | 10 |
12 | Newcastle United | 11 | 13 |
13 | Huddersfield | 14 | 14 |
14 | Crystal Palace | 15 | 15 |
15 | West Ham | 7 | 20 |
16 | Watford | 18 | 11 |
17 | Swansea | 16 | 17 |
18 | Everton | 17 | 16 |
19 | Bournemouth | 20 | 18 |
20 | Stoke | 19 | 19 |
TEAM ATTACK
Ovr Rank xG | Home Rank | Away Rank | |
1 | Manchester City | 1 | 1 |
2 | Liverpool | 3 | 2 |
3 | Tottenham | 4 | 3 |
4 | Arsenal | 2 | 10 |
5 | Manchester United | 5 | 4 |
6 | Chelsea | 6 | 5 |
7 | Crystal Palace | 7 | 8 |
8 | Leicester | 8 | 7 |
9 | Watford | 14 | 6 |
10 | Newcastle United | 12 | 9 |
11 | Everton | 9 | 11 |
12 | Southampton | 10 | 15 |
13 | Bournemouth | 15 | 13 |
14 | West Ham | 18 | 12 |
15 | Brighton | 11 | 19 |
16 | Stoke | 13 | 18 |
17 | WBA | 16 | 16 |
18 | Huddersfield | 19 | 17 |
19 | Burnley | 20 | 14 |
20 | Swansea | 17 | 20 |
METHOD AND CAVEATS FOR PLAYER RANKINGS
This is just one part of ranking players it’s not the be all and end all. I do a player rankings series which uses more stats than just xG and xA. There’s no filtering here for gametime security or injuries.
Here I have taken the Non penalty xG per 90 minutes (NPxG90) and the xA and converted them into goals and assist points and then total points as if they were playing over the whole season 90 minutes each game. I haven’t added on appearance points, adjusted for average minutes or bonus points or clean sheets for defenders. It’s purely just the goals and assist points. There was a minimum minutes played of 500 minutes. I’ve also added a points per million column.
Players don’t perform on a straight line with the stats. Some like Hazard and De Bruyne have shown they can over perform. Others like Tadic have a history of under performing. I have not tried to adjust for this. That’s more for the player rankings articles.
Don’t concentrate too much on the points. They are principally for ranking purposes. If you wonder why the random numbers of players it’s because I went down to a certain threshold and then it was whatever number of players ended up.
This article is very time consuming and laborious and easy to make mistakes so apologies if there is any
Player Stat abbreviations
Value £m: The FPL price at the time of the article. In this case the 3rd April
NP xG90: the non penalty expected goals per 90 minutes played
xA90: the expected assists per 90 minutes played
ProjPts: the projected attacking points based on the current NPxG90 and xA90 if the player played 38 games 90 minutes in each. No points for starting,no bonus, no clean sheet points, just goals and assists points.
Pts/£m: the projected points above per £m value. This is for Mids and Fwds only. An average is around 10 and it gives you an indication of value for money. The average is around 10.
DEFENDERS ATTACK RANKING
Rank | £m | NPxG90 | xA90 | Proj Pts | ||
1 | Davide Zappacosta | Chelsea | 5.9 | 0.14 | 0.11 | 44 |
2 | Marcos Alonso | Chelsea | 7.2 | 0.13 | 0.11 | 42 |
3 | Sead Kolasinac | Arsenal | 5.8 | 0.08 | 0.20 | 41 |
4 | Victor Moses | Chelsea | 6.5 | 0.12 | 0.11 | 40 |
5 | Calum Chambers | Arsenal | 4.7 | 0.16 | 0.02 | 39 |
6 | James Milner | Liverpool | 6.0 | 0.07 | 0.19 | 38 |
7 | Scott Dann | Crystal Palace | 4.6 | 0.15 | 0.01 | 35 |
8 | Virgil van Dijk | Liverpool | 5.7 | 0.09 | 0.12 | 34 |
9 | Nacho Monreal | Arsenal | 5.6 | 0.08 | 0.13 | 33 |
10 | Serge Aurier | Tottenham | 5.9 | 0.05 | 0.19 | 33 |
11 | Miguel Britos | Watford | 4.3 | 0.09 | 0.10 | 32 |
12 | Mamadou Sakho | Crystal Palace | 4.6 | 0.13 | 0.02 | 32 |
13 | Ciaran Clark | Newcastle United | 4.4 | 0.11 | 0.05 | 31 |
14 | Andrew Robertson | Liverpool | 5.1 | 0.02 | 0.23 | 31 |
15 | Ben Davies | Tottenham | 5.9 | 0.05 | 0.17 | 31 |
16 | Eric Bailly | Manchester United | 6.0 | 0.12 | 0.02 | 30 |
17 | Héctor Bellerín | Arsenal | 5.9 | 0.08 | 0.10 | 30 |
18 | Maya Yoshida | Southampton | 4.6 | 0.11 | 0.03 | 29 |
19 | Joel Matip | Liverpool | 5.4 | 0.11 | 0.03 | 29 |
20 | Patrick van Aanholt | Crystal Palace | 5.1 | 0.08 | 0.09 | 29 |
21 | Daryl Janmaat | Watford | 4.8 | 0.10 | 0.03 | 26 |
22 | Harry Maguire | Leicester | 5.6 | 0.05 | 0.13 | 26 |
23 | Kieran Trippier | Tottenham | 5.2 | 0.02 | 0.19 | 26 |
24 | Nicolás Otamendi | Manchester City | 6.4 | 0.10 | 0.02 | 25 |
25 | Dejan Lovren | Liverpool | 5.3 | 0.08 | 0.06 | 25 |
26 | Craig Dawson | WBA | 4.8 | 0.09 | 0.03 | 24 |
27 | John Stones | Manchester City | 5.3 | 0.10 | 0.00 | 23 |
28 | James Tomkins | Crystal Palace | 4.4 | 0.10 | 0.00 | 23 |
29 | Laurent Koscielny | Arsenal | 6.0 | 0.09 | 0.02 | 23 |
30 | Kyle Walker | Manchester City | 6.6 | 0.02 | 0.16 | 23 |
31 | José Holebas | Watford | 4.8 | 0.02 | 0.16 | 23 |
32 | Ryan Bertrand | Southampton | 5.3 | 0.06 | 0.08 | 23 |
33 | Ryan Shawcross | Stoke | 4.8 | 0.09 | 0.01 | 22 |
34 | Danny Rose | Tottenham | 6.4 | 0.06 | 0.07 | 22 |
35 | Trent Alexander-Arnold | Liverpool | 4.3 | 0.03 | 0.13 | 22 |
36 | Wesley Hoedt | Southampton | 5.0 | 0.08 | 0.03 | 22 |
37 | Alfie Mawson | Swansea | 5.1 | 0.08 | 0.02 | 21 |
38 | Jonny Evans | WBA | 4.9 | 0.07 | 0.04 | 21 |
39 | Leighton Baines | Everton | 5.6 | 0.03 | 0.11 | 19 |
40 | Lewis Dunk | Brighton | 4.5 | 0.08 | 0.01 | 19 |
41 | Nathan Aké | Bournemouth | 5.1 | 0.05 | 0.06 | 18 |
42 | Jeffrey Schlupp | Crystal Palace | 4.7 | 0.05 | 0.06 | 18 |
43 | David Luiz | Chelsea | 5.7 | 0.08 | 0.00 | 18 |
44 | Shane Duffy | Brighton | 4.6 | 0.06 | 0.04 | 18 |
45 | Wes Morgan | Leicester | 4.4 | 0.07 | 0.01 | 17 |
46 | Ragnar Klavan | Liverpool | 4.1 | 0.07 | 0.01 | 17 |
47 | Zanka | Huddersfield | 4.5 | 0.07 | 0.01 | 17 |
48 | Ahmed Hegazy | WBA | 4.7 | 0.07 | 0.01 | 17 |
49 | Ben Chilwell | Leicester | 4.4 | 0.01 | 0.12 | 16 |
50 | Aaron Cresswell | West Ham | 5.0 | 0.01 | 0.12 | 16 |
MIDFIELD ATTACK RANKING
Rank | £m | NPxG90 | xA90 | Proj Pts | Pts per £m | ||
1 | Mohamed Salah | Liverpool | 10.7 | 0.73 | 0.26 | 168 | 15.7 |
2 | Raheem Sterling | Manchester City | 8.7 | 0.56 | 0.30 | 141 | 16.2 |
3 | Son Heung-Min | Tottenham | 8.3 | 0.48 | 0.27 | 122 | 14.7 |
4 | David Silva | Manchester City | 8.1 | 0.39 | 0.34 | 113 | 13.9 |
5 | Sadio Mané | Liverpool | 9.5 | 0.47 | 0.20 | 112 | 11.8 |
6 | Alexis Sánchez | Manchester United | 11.5 | 0.40 | 0.28 | 108 | 9.4 |
7 | Anthony Martial | Manchester United | 7.9 | 0.35 | 0.34 | 105 | 13.3 |
8 | Jesse Lingard | Manchester United | 6.0 | 0.45 | 0.17 | 105 | 17.5 |
9 | Aaron Ramsey | Arsenal | 6.9 | 0.37 | 0.24 | 98 | 14.2 |
10 | Marko Arnautovic | West Ham | 6.9 | 0.42 | 0.14 | 96 | 13.9 |
11 | Dele Alli | Tottenham | 8.9 | 0.33 | 0.28 | 95 | 10.6 |
12 | Erik Lamela | Tottenham | 6.3 | 0.34 | 0.25 | 93 | 14.8 |
13 | Leroy Sané | Manchester City | 8.6 | 0.28 | 0.35 | 93 | 10.8 |
14 | Theo Walcott | Arsenal, Everton | 6.9 | 0.29 | 0.26 | 85 | 12.3 |
15 | Paul Pogba | Manchester United | 7.8 | 0.31 | 0.21 | 83 | 10.6 |
16 | Kenedy | Newcastle United | 4.8 | 0.27 | 0.26 | 81 | 16.9 |
17 | Willian | Chelsea | 7.1 | 0.25 | 0.29 | 81 | 11.3 |
18 | Christian Eriksen | Tottenham | 9.4 | 0.20 | 0.35 | 78 | 8.3 |
19 | Richarlison | Watford | 6.0 | 0.33 | 0.13 | 78 | 12.9 |
20 | Eden Hazard | Chelsea | 10.6 | 0.24 | 0.28 | 78 | 7.3 |
21 | Mesut Özil | Arsenal | 9.3 | 0.18 | 0.38 | 78 | 8.3 |
22 | Kevin De Bruyne | Manchester City | 10.4 | 0.16 | 0.41 | 77 | 7.4 |
23 | Bernardo Silva | Manchester City | 8.1 | 0.26 | 0.20 | 72 | 8.9 |
24 | Wilfried Zaha | Crystal Palace | 6.8 | 0.27 | 0.17 | 71 | 10.4 |
25 | Riyad Mahrez | Leicester | 8.9 | 0.21 | 0.26 | 70 | 7.8 |
26 | Alex Iwobi | Arsenal | 5.1 | 0.25 | 0.18 | 68 | 13.3 |
27 | Henrikh Mkhitaryan | Arsenal | 7.8 | 0.12 | 0.39 | 67 | 8.6 |
28 | Eric Maxim Choupo-Moting | Stoke | 5.4 | 0.25 | 0.13 | 62 | 11.5 |
29 | Juan Mata | Manchester United | 6.8 | 0.19 | 0.22 | 61 | 9.0 |
30 | Moussa Sissoko | Tottenham | 5.3 | 0.19 | 0.18 | 57 | 10.7 |
31 | Pedro | Chelsea | 7.7 | 0.23 | 0.11 | 56 | 7.3 |
32 | Junior Stanislas | Bournemouth | 6.0 | 0.21 | 0.13 | 55 | 9.1 |
33 | Luciano Narsingh | Swansea | 4.7 | 0.19 | 0.16 | 54 | 11.6 |
34 | Ruben Loftus-Cheek | Crystal Palace | 4.4 | 0.17 | 0.19 | 54 | 12.3 |
35 | Christian Atsu | Newcastle United | 4.8 | 0.20 | 0.14 | 54 | 11.2 |
36 | Yannick Bolasie | Everton | 6.4 | 0.25 | 0.05 | 53 | 8.3 |
37 | Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain | Arsenal, Liverpool | 5.6 | 0.14 | 0.22 | 52 | 9.2 |
38 | Cesc Fàbregas | Chelsea | 6.8 | 0.10 | 0.28 | 51 | 7.5 |
39 | Demarai Gray | Leicester | 5.3 | 0.15 | 0.19 | 50 | 9.5 |
40 | Jason Puncheon | Crystal Palace | 4.4 | 0.22 | 0.07 | 50 | 11.3 |
41 | Tom Ince | Huddersfield | 5.5 | 0.22 | 0.06 | 49 | 8.8 |
42 | Dusan Tadic | Southampton | 6.2 | 0.14 | 0.19 | 48 | 7.8 |
43 | Xherdan Shaqiri | Stoke | 6.3 | 0.14 | 0.19 | 48 | 7.7 |
44 | Pascal Groß | Brighton | 6.0 | 0.07 | 0.30 | 48 | 7.9 |
45 | José Izquierdo | Brighton | 5.9 | 0.17 | 0.13 | 47 | 8.0 |
46 | Anthony Knockaert | Brighton | 5.5 | 0.17 | 0.13 | 47 | 8.6 |
47 | Jordon Ibe | Bournemouth | 4.7 | 0.14 | 0.18 | 47 | 10.0 |
48 | James Ward-Prowse | Southampton | 5.0 | 0.11 | 0.22 | 46 | 9.2 |
FORWARDS ATTACK RANKING
Rank | £m | NPxG90 | xA90 | Proj Pts | Pts per £m | ||
1 | Olivier Giroud | Arsenal | 8.2 | 1.12 | 0.36 | 211 | 25.8 |
2 | Sergio Agüero | Manchester City | 11.7 | 0.70 | 0.29 | 139 | 11.9 |
3 | Gabriel Jesus | Manchester City | 10.0 | 0.79 | 0.12 | 134 | 13.4 |
4 | Harry Kane | Tottenham | 12.7 | 0.79 | 0.11 | 133 | 10.4 |
5 | Álvaro Morata | Chelsea | 10.4 | 0.63 | 0.14 | 112 | 10.7 |
6 | Charlie Austin | Southampton | 5.8 | 0.67 | 0.03 | 105 | 18.1 |
7 | Oumar Niasse | Everton | 4.8 | 0.59 | 0.12 | 103 | 21.5 |
8 | Alexandre Lacazette | Arsenal | 10.2 | 0.50 | 0.16 | 94 | 9.2 |
9 | Romelu Lukaku | Manchester United | 11.6 | 0.48 | 0.18 | 93 | 8.1 |
10 | Shinji Okazaki | Leicester | 5.3 | 0.53 | 0.07 | 89 | 16.7 |
11 | Daniel Sturridge | WBA | 7.9 | 0.47 | 0.15 | 89 | 11.2 |
12 | Dwight Gayle | Newcastle United | 6.1 | 0.46 | 0.13 | 85 | 13.9 |
13 | Aubameyang | Arsenal | 10.8 | 0.51 | 0.05 | 83 | 7.7 |
14 | Cenk Tosun | Everton | 6.9 | 0.41 | 0.18 | 83 | 12.0 |
15 | Roberto Firmino | Liverpool | 9.7 | 0.31 | 0.27 | 78 | 8.0 |
16 | Marcus Rashford | Manchester United | 7.4 | 0.30 | 0.28 | 78 | 10.5 |
17 | Andre Gray | Watford | 6.3 | 0.42 | 0.12 | 78 | 12.3 |
18 | Christian Benteke | Crystal Palace | 7.6 | 0.40 | 0.13 | 76 | 10.0 |
19 | Chris Wood | Burnley | 6.3 | 0.45 | 0.04 | 73 | 11.6 |
20 | Jermain Defoe | Bournemouth | 7.6 | 0.40 | 0.06 | 68 | 8.9 |
21 | Danny Welbeck | Arsenal | 7.3 | 0.36 | 0.11 | 67 | 9.2 |
22 | Tammy Abraham | Swansea | 5.4 | 0.34 | 0.07 | 60 | 11.0 |
23 | Peter Crouch | Stoke | 4.8 | 0.24 | 0.20 | 59 | 12.4 |
24 | Ayoze Pérez | Newcastle United | 5.2 | 0.22 | 0.21 | 57 | 11.0 |
25 | Calvert-Lewin | Everton | 5.0 | 0.26 | 0.15 | 57 | 11.3 |
26 | Chicharito | West Ham | 6.7 | 0.31 | 0.08 | 56 | 8.4 |
27 | Joselu | Newcastle United | 5.5 | 0.30 | 0.07 | 54 | 9.7 |
28 | Glenn Murray | Brighton | 6.0 | 0.32 | 0.04 | 53 | 8.9 |
29 | Sam Vokes | Burnley | 5.7 | 0.26 | 0.12 | 53 | 9.3 |
30 | Steve Mounie | Huddersfield | 5.8 | 0.27 | 0.09 | 51 | 8.8 |
31 | Jamie Vardy | Leicester | 8.9 | 0.27 | 0.09 | 51 | 5.8 |
32 | Ashley Barnes | Burnley | 5.4 | 0.28 | 0.05 | 48 | 8.9 |
33 | Callum Wilson | Bournemouth | 5.9 | 0.25 | 0.08 | 47 | 8.0 |
34 | Salomón Rondón | WBA | 6.0 | 0.24 | 0.07 | 44 | 7.4 |
35 | Mame Biram Diouf | Stoke | 5.2 | 0.24 | 0.06 | 43 | 8.3 |
36 | Wayne Rooney | Everton | 7.2 | 0.19 | 0.10 | 40 | 5.6 |
37 | Joshua King | Bournemouth | 7.0 | 0.16 | 0.14 | 40 | 5.8 |
38 | Jay Rodriguez | WBA | 5.3 | 0.21 | 0.06 | 39 | 7.3 |
39 | Collin Quaner | Huddersfield | 4.6 | 0.10 | 0.20 | 38 | 8.3 |
40 | Hal Robson-Kanu | WBA | 4.9 | 0.22 | 0.04 | 38 | 7.8 |
41 | Shane Long | Southampton | 5.6 | 0.17 | 0.08 | 35 | 6.2 |
42 | Andy Carroll | West Ham | 5.7 | 0.18 | 0.06 | 34 | 6.0 |
43 | Jordan Ayew | Swansea | 5.3 | 0.17 | 0.06 | 33 | 6.2 |
44 | Troy Deeney | Watford | 6.3 | 0.13 | 0.11 | 32 | 5.1 |
45 | Wilfried Bony | Swansea | 5.6 | 0.19 | 0.02 | 31 | 5.6 |
46 | Laurent Depoitre | Huddersfield | 5.1 | 0.14 | 0.08 | 30 | 6.0 |
47 | Tomer Hemed | Brighton | 4.7 | 0.18 | 0.01 | 29 | 6.1 |
48 | Manolo Gabbiadini | Southampton | 6.2 | 0.10 | 0.04 | 20 | 3.2 |
THE XG/XA wildcard team
As you may know I have 3 alternate FFGeek teams which you can see in this link. One is a team based on nothing but expected goal and assist information. The team has it’s wildcard, Bench Boost, Triple Captain and Free Hit in place and currently has an OR of 77k. It will follow the general plan of WC 33, BB34 FH 35 and TC 37
So with the bench boost in GW34 the idea is to have 14 DGW34 players plus Salah. I’ve therefore looked to get a defender from 7 of the 8 teams that have a DGW34.
The 8 are Spurs, Chelsea, Man Utd, Southampton, Leicester, Brighton, Burnley and Bournemouth.
The defenders are more about value and gametime security than attacking potential and the 8 attackers are 1 player from 7 of the 8 teams in order of the value £m.
Here’s the team with their attacking ranking for their category and then it on the FPL site. The wildcard has been played btw.
category rank | value rank | |
De Gea | n/a | n/a |
Ryan | n/a | n/a |
Vertonghen | didnt register | n/a |
Alonso | 2 | n/a |
Cedric | 63 | n/a |
Chilwell | 49 | n/a |
Lowton | 66 | n/a |
Salah | 1 | 4 |
Willian | 17 | 18 |
Lingard | 8 | 1 |
Izquierdo | 45 | 40 |
Mahrez | 25 | 42 |
Austin | 6 | 3 |
Wood | 19 | 11 |
Kane | 4 | 18 |
It’s worth mentioning that I didn’t put Son in as with Kane back and Lamela in the team I didn’t think his gametime was absolutely secure plus Kane also fits as a captain option for GW34. Value wise it was also marginal between Kane and Alli but again Kane gave the captain option. The team value is a pretty pathetic £100.6m
Here’s the lineup for GW33:
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