FPL underlying stats GW33 - expected goals totals

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Here’s our FPL underlying stats GW33 article where we presented expected goals totals up to and including GW32. We look at stats for individual players by position including projected attacking points as well as a points per million calculation. There’s also a GW33 xG/xA wildcard team at the end as a summary to help you think about this weeks transfers.

FPL UNDERLYING STATS GW33 – EXPECTED GOALS TOTALS

There’s alot of stats to come so if you’d rather just look at the wildcard team for GW33 then go to the end of the article.

BACKGROUND

Expected goals is a stat where the probability is evaluated that any given shot will end up as a goal.

Expected goals are based on a number of factors, such as where the shot was taken from and where the opposition defenders are at the time. The shot assumes it is being taken by someone of average ability in the league. To state the obvious , a shot from inside the 6 yard box in front of goal with no defenders around will have a very high probability it will end up as a goal.

In essence it shows you what should have happened rather than what has happened.

The expected goals are now all wholly from the excellent free site understat.com

TEAM RANKINGS FOR DEFENCE AND ATTACK

Here I rank the teams overall for defence and attack and then home and away by expected goals

TEAM DEFENCE

Ovr Rank xGA		Home Rank	Away Rank
1	Manchester City	1	1
2	Tottenham	2	3
3	Chelsea	4	2
4	Liverpool	3	6
5	Manchester United	5	4
6	Leicester	8	8
7	Arsenal	12	5
8	Brighton	10	7
9	WBA	9	9
10	Southampton	6	12
11	Burnley	13	10
12	Newcastle United	11	13
13	Huddersfield	14	14
14	Crystal Palace	15	15
15	West Ham	7	20
16	Watford	18	11
17	Swansea	16	17
18	Everton	17	16
19	Bournemouth	20	18
20	Stoke	19	19

TEAM ATTACK

Ovr Rank xG		Home Rank	Away Rank
1	Manchester City	1	1
2	Liverpool	3	2
3	Tottenham	4	3
4	Arsenal	2	10
5	Manchester United	5	4
6	Chelsea	6	5
7	Crystal Palace	7	8
8	Leicester	8	7
9	Watford	14	6
10	Newcastle United	12	9
11	Everton	9	11
12	Southampton	10	15
13	Bournemouth	15	13
14	West Ham	18	12
15	Brighton	11	19
16	Stoke	13	18
17	WBA	16	16
18	Huddersfield	19	17
19	Burnley	20	14
20	Swansea	17	20

METHOD AND CAVEATS FOR PLAYER RANKINGS

This is just one part of ranking players it’s not the be all and end all. I do a player rankings series which uses more stats than just xG and xA. There’s no filtering here for gametime security or injuries.

Here I have taken the Non penalty xG per 90 minutes (NPxG90) and the xA and converted them into goals and assist points and then total points as if they were playing over the whole season 90 minutes each game. I haven’t added on appearance points, adjusted for average minutes or bonus points or clean sheets for defenders. It’s purely just the goals and assist points. There was a minimum minutes played of 500 minutes. I’ve also added a points per million column.

Players don’t perform on a straight line with the stats. Some like Hazard and De Bruyne have shown they can over perform. Others like Tadic have a history of under performing. I have not tried to adjust for this. That’s more for the player rankings articles.

Don’t concentrate too much on the points. They are principally for ranking purposes. If you wonder why the random numbers of players it’s because I went down to a certain threshold and then it was whatever number of players ended up.

This article is very time consuming and laborious and easy to make mistakes so apologies if there is any

Player Stat abbreviations

Value £m: The FPL price at the time of the article. In this case the 3rd April

NP xG90: the non penalty expected goals per 90 minutes played

xA90: the expected assists per 90 minutes played

ProjPts: the projected attacking points based on the current NPxG90 and xA90 if the player played 38 games 90 minutes in each. No points for starting,no bonus, no clean sheet points, just goals and assists points.

Pts/£m: the projected points above per £m value. This is for Mids and Fwds only. An average is around 10 and it gives you an indication of value for money. The average is around 10.

DEFENDERS ATTACK RANKING

Rank			£m	NPxG90	xA90	Proj Pts
1	Davide Zappacosta	Chelsea	5.9	0.14	0.11	44
2	Marcos Alonso	Chelsea	7.2	0.13	0.11	42
3	Sead Kolasinac	Arsenal	5.8	0.08	0.20	41
4	Victor Moses	Chelsea	6.5	0.12	0.11	40
5	Calum Chambers	Arsenal	4.7	0.16	0.02	39
6	James Milner	Liverpool	6.0	0.07	0.19	38
7	Scott Dann	Crystal Palace	4.6	0.15	0.01	35
8	Virgil van Dijk	Liverpool	5.7	0.09	0.12	34
9	Nacho Monreal	Arsenal	5.6	0.08	0.13	33
10	Serge Aurier	Tottenham	5.9	0.05	0.19	33
11	Miguel Britos	Watford	4.3	0.09	0.10	32
12	Mamadou Sakho	Crystal Palace	4.6	0.13	0.02	32
13	Ciaran Clark	Newcastle United	4.4	0.11	0.05	31
14	Andrew Robertson	Liverpool	5.1	0.02	0.23	31
15	Ben Davies	Tottenham	5.9	0.05	0.17	31
16	Eric Bailly	Manchester United	6.0	0.12	0.02	30
17	Héctor Bellerín	Arsenal	5.9	0.08	0.10	30
18	Maya Yoshida	Southampton	4.6	0.11	0.03	29
19	Joel Matip	Liverpool	5.4	0.11	0.03	29
20	Patrick van Aanholt	Crystal Palace	5.1	0.08	0.09	29
21	Daryl Janmaat	Watford	4.8	0.10	0.03	26
22	Harry Maguire	Leicester	5.6	0.05	0.13	26
23	Kieran Trippier	Tottenham	5.2	0.02	0.19	26
24	Nicolás Otamendi	Manchester City	6.4	0.10	0.02	25
25	Dejan Lovren	Liverpool	5.3	0.08	0.06	25
26	Craig Dawson	WBA	4.8	0.09	0.03	24
27	John Stones	Manchester City	5.3	0.10	0.00	23
28	James Tomkins	Crystal Palace	4.4	0.10	0.00	23
29	Laurent Koscielny	Arsenal	6.0	0.09	0.02	23
30	Kyle Walker	Manchester City	6.6	0.02	0.16	23
31	José Holebas	Watford	4.8	0.02	0.16	23
32	Ryan Bertrand	Southampton	5.3	0.06	0.08	23
33	Ryan Shawcross	Stoke	4.8	0.09	0.01	22
34	Danny Rose	Tottenham	6.4	0.06	0.07	22
35	Trent Alexander-Arnold	Liverpool	4.3	0.03	0.13	22
36	Wesley Hoedt	Southampton	5.0	0.08	0.03	22
37	Alfie Mawson	Swansea	5.1	0.08	0.02	21
38	Jonny Evans	WBA	4.9	0.07	0.04	21
39	Leighton Baines	Everton	5.6	0.03	0.11	19
40	Lewis Dunk	Brighton	4.5	0.08	0.01	19
41	Nathan Aké	Bournemouth	5.1	0.05	0.06	18
42	Jeffrey Schlupp	Crystal Palace	4.7	0.05	0.06	18
43	David Luiz	Chelsea	5.7	0.08	0.00	18
44	Shane Duffy	Brighton	4.6	0.06	0.04	18
45	Wes Morgan	Leicester	4.4	0.07	0.01	17
46	Ragnar Klavan	Liverpool	4.1	0.07	0.01	17
47	Zanka	Huddersfield	4.5	0.07	0.01	17
48	Ahmed Hegazy	WBA	4.7	0.07	0.01	17
49	Ben Chilwell	Leicester	4.4	0.01	0.12	16
50	Aaron Cresswell	West Ham	5.0	0.01	0.12	16

MIDFIELD ATTACK RANKING

Rank			£m	NPxG90	xA90	Proj Pts	Pts per £m
1	Mohamed Salah	Liverpool	10.7	0.73	0.26	168	15.7
2	Raheem Sterling	Manchester City	8.7	0.56	0.30	141	16.2
3	Son Heung-Min	Tottenham	8.3	0.48	0.27	122	14.7
4	David Silva	Manchester City	8.1	0.39	0.34	113	13.9
5	Sadio Mané	Liverpool	9.5	0.47	0.20	112	11.8
6	Alexis Sánchez	Manchester United	11.5	0.40	0.28	108	9.4
7	Anthony Martial	Manchester United	7.9	0.35	0.34	105	13.3
8	Jesse Lingard	Manchester United	6.0	0.45	0.17	105	17.5
9	Aaron Ramsey	Arsenal	6.9	0.37	0.24	98	14.2
10	Marko Arnautovic	West Ham	6.9	0.42	0.14	96	13.9
11	Dele Alli	Tottenham	8.9	0.33	0.28	95	10.6
12	Erik Lamela	Tottenham	6.3	0.34	0.25	93	14.8
13	Leroy Sané	Manchester City	8.6	0.28	0.35	93	10.8
14	Theo Walcott	Arsenal, Everton	6.9	0.29	0.26	85	12.3
15	Paul Pogba	Manchester United	7.8	0.31	0.21	83	10.6
16	Kenedy	Newcastle United	4.8	0.27	0.26	81	16.9
17	Willian	Chelsea	7.1	0.25	0.29	81	11.3
18	Christian Eriksen	Tottenham	9.4	0.20	0.35	78	8.3
19	Richarlison	Watford	6.0	0.33	0.13	78	12.9
20	Eden Hazard	Chelsea	10.6	0.24	0.28	78	7.3
21	Mesut Özil	Arsenal	9.3	0.18	0.38	78	8.3
22	Kevin De Bruyne	Manchester City	10.4	0.16	0.41	77	7.4
23	Bernardo Silva	Manchester City	8.1	0.26	0.20	72	8.9
24	Wilfried Zaha	Crystal Palace	6.8	0.27	0.17	71	10.4
25	Riyad Mahrez	Leicester	8.9	0.21	0.26	70	7.8
26	Alex Iwobi	Arsenal	5.1	0.25	0.18	68	13.3
27	Henrikh Mkhitaryan	Arsenal	7.8	0.12	0.39	67	8.6
28	Eric Maxim Choupo-Moting	Stoke	5.4	0.25	0.13	62	11.5
29	Juan Mata	Manchester United	6.8	0.19	0.22	61	9.0
30	Moussa Sissoko	Tottenham	5.3	0.19	0.18	57	10.7
31	Pedro	Chelsea	7.7	0.23	0.11	56	7.3
32	Junior Stanislas	Bournemouth	6.0	0.21	0.13	55	9.1
33	Luciano Narsingh	Swansea	4.7	0.19	0.16	54	11.6
34	Ruben Loftus-Cheek	Crystal Palace	4.4	0.17	0.19	54	12.3
35	Christian Atsu	Newcastle United	4.8	0.20	0.14	54	11.2
36	Yannick Bolasie	Everton	6.4	0.25	0.05	53	8.3
37	Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain	Arsenal, Liverpool	5.6	0.14	0.22	52	9.2
38	Cesc Fàbregas	Chelsea	6.8	0.10	0.28	51	7.5
39	Demarai Gray	Leicester	5.3	0.15	0.19	50	9.5
40	Jason Puncheon	Crystal Palace	4.4	0.22	0.07	50	11.3
41	Tom Ince	Huddersfield	5.5	0.22	0.06	49	8.8
42	Dusan Tadic	Southampton	6.2	0.14	0.19	48	7.8
43	Xherdan Shaqiri	Stoke	6.3	0.14	0.19	48	7.7
44	Pascal Groß	Brighton	6.0	0.07	0.30	48	7.9
45	José Izquierdo	Brighton	5.9	0.17	0.13	47	8.0
46	Anthony Knockaert	Brighton	5.5	0.17	0.13	47	8.6
47	Jordon Ibe	Bournemouth	4.7	0.14	0.18	47	10.0
48	James Ward-Prowse	Southampton	5.0	0.11	0.22	46	9.2

FORWARDS ATTACK RANKING

Rank			£m	NPxG90	xA90	Proj Pts	Pts per £m
1	Olivier Giroud	Arsenal	8.2	1.12	0.36	211	25.8
2	Sergio Agüero	Manchester City	11.7	0.70	0.29	139	11.9
3	Gabriel Jesus	Manchester City	10.0	0.79	0.12	134	13.4
4	Harry Kane	Tottenham	12.7	0.79	0.11	133	10.4
5	Álvaro Morata	Chelsea	10.4	0.63	0.14	112	10.7
6	Charlie Austin	Southampton	5.8	0.67	0.03	105	18.1
7	Oumar Niasse	Everton	4.8	0.59	0.12	103	21.5
8	Alexandre Lacazette	Arsenal	10.2	0.50	0.16	94	9.2
9	Romelu Lukaku	Manchester United	11.6	0.48	0.18	93	8.1
10	Shinji Okazaki	Leicester	5.3	0.53	0.07	89	16.7
11	Daniel Sturridge	WBA	7.9	0.47	0.15	89	11.2
12	Dwight Gayle	Newcastle United	6.1	0.46	0.13	85	13.9
13	Aubameyang	Arsenal	10.8	0.51	0.05	83	7.7
14	Cenk Tosun	Everton	6.9	0.41	0.18	83	12.0
15	Roberto Firmino	Liverpool	9.7	0.31	0.27	78	8.0
16	Marcus Rashford	Manchester United	7.4	0.30	0.28	78	10.5
17	Andre Gray	Watford	6.3	0.42	0.12	78	12.3
18	Christian Benteke	Crystal Palace	7.6	0.40	0.13	76	10.0
19	Chris Wood	Burnley	6.3	0.45	0.04	73	11.6
20	Jermain Defoe	Bournemouth	7.6	0.40	0.06	68	8.9
21	Danny Welbeck	Arsenal	7.3	0.36	0.11	67	9.2
22	Tammy Abraham	Swansea	5.4	0.34	0.07	60	11.0
23	Peter Crouch	Stoke	4.8	0.24	0.20	59	12.4
24	Ayoze Pérez	Newcastle United	5.2	0.22	0.21	57	11.0
25	Calvert-Lewin	Everton	5.0	0.26	0.15	57	11.3
26	Chicharito	West Ham	6.7	0.31	0.08	56	8.4
27	Joselu	Newcastle United	5.5	0.30	0.07	54	9.7
28	Glenn Murray	Brighton	6.0	0.32	0.04	53	8.9
29	Sam Vokes	Burnley	5.7	0.26	0.12	53	9.3
30	Steve Mounie	Huddersfield	5.8	0.27	0.09	51	8.8
31	Jamie Vardy	Leicester	8.9	0.27	0.09	51	5.8
32	Ashley Barnes	Burnley	5.4	0.28	0.05	48	8.9
33	Callum Wilson	Bournemouth	5.9	0.25	0.08	47	8.0
34	Salomón Rondón	WBA	6.0	0.24	0.07	44	7.4
35	Mame Biram Diouf	Stoke	5.2	0.24	0.06	43	8.3
36	Wayne Rooney	Everton	7.2	0.19	0.10	40	5.6
37	Joshua King	Bournemouth	7.0	0.16	0.14	40	5.8
38	Jay Rodriguez	WBA	5.3	0.21	0.06	39	7.3
39	Collin Quaner	Huddersfield	4.6	0.10	0.20	38	8.3
40	Hal Robson-Kanu	WBA	4.9	0.22	0.04	38	7.8
41	Shane Long	Southampton	5.6	0.17	0.08	35	6.2
42	Andy Carroll	West Ham	5.7	0.18	0.06	34	6.0
43	Jordan Ayew	Swansea	5.3	0.17	0.06	33	6.2
44	Troy Deeney	Watford	6.3	0.13	0.11	32	5.1
45	Wilfried Bony	Swansea	5.6	0.19	0.02	31	5.6
46	Laurent Depoitre	Huddersfield	5.1	0.14	0.08	30	6.0
47	Tomer Hemed	Brighton	4.7	0.18	0.01	29	6.1
48	Manolo Gabbiadini	Southampton	6.2	0.10	0.04	20	3.2

THE XG/XA wildcard team

As you may know I have 3 alternate FFGeek teams which you can see in this link. One is a team based on nothing but expected goal and assist information. The team has it’s wildcard, Bench Boost, Triple Captain and Free Hit in place and currently has an OR of 77k. It will follow the general plan of WC 33, BB34 FH 35 and TC 37

So with the bench boost in GW34 the idea is to have 14 DGW34 players plus Salah. I’ve therefore looked to get a defender from 7 of the 8 teams that have a DGW34.

The 8 are Spurs, Chelsea, Man Utd, Southampton, Leicester, Brighton, Burnley and Bournemouth.

The defenders are more about value and gametime security than attacking potential and the 8 attackers are 1 player from 7 of the 8 teams in order of the value £m.

Here’s the team with their attacking ranking for their category and then it on the FPL site. The wildcard has been played btw.

	category rank	value rank
De Gea	n/a	n/a
Ryan	n/a	n/a

Vertonghen	didnt register	n/a
Alonso	2	n/a
Cedric	63	n/a
Chilwell	49	n/a
Lowton	66	n/a

Salah	1	4
Willian	17	18
Lingard	8	1
Izquierdo	45	40
Mahrez	25	42

Austin	6	3
Wood	19	11
Kane	4	18

It’s worth mentioning that I didn’t put Son in as with Kane back and Lamela in the team I didn’t think his gametime was absolutely secure plus Kane also fits as a captain option for GW34. Value wise it was also marginal between Kane and Alli but again Kane gave the captain option. The team value is a pretty pathetic £100.6m

Here’s the lineup for GW33:

GEEK LEAGUES

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