Here’s our FPL underlying stats GW34 article where we presented expected goals totals up to and including GW33. We look at stats for individual players by position including projected attacking points as well as a points per million calculation. There’s also a GW34 xG/xA team at the end as a summary to help you think about this weeks transfers.
FPL UNDERLYING STATS GW34 – EXPECTED GOALS TOTALS
There’s alot of stats to come so if you’d rather just look at the wildcard team for GW34 then go to the end of the article.
BACKGROUND
Expected goals is a stat where the probability is evaluated that any given shot will end up as a goal.
Expected goals are based on a number of factors, such as where the shot was taken from and where the opposition defenders are at the time. The shot assumes it is being taken by someone of average ability in the league. To state the obvious , a shot from inside the 6 yard box in front of goal with no defenders around will have a very high probability it will end up as a goal.
In essence it shows you what should have happened rather than what has happened.
The expected goals are now all wholly from the excellent free site understat.com
TEAM RANKINGS FOR DEFENCE
Here I rank the teams overall for defence only this week and then home and away by expected goals
Ovr Rank xGA | Home | Away | |
1 | Man City | 2 | 1 |
2 | Spurs | 1 | 3 |
3 | Chelsea | 4 | 2 |
4 | Liverpool | 3 | 4 |
5 | Man Utd | 5 | 11 |
6 | Leicester | 7 | 5 |
7 | WBA | 9 | 8 |
8 | Brighton | 11 | 10 |
9 | Arsenal | 14 | 6 |
10 | Southampton | 6 | 14 |
11 | Burnley | 15 | 7 |
12 | Newcastle | 10 | 13 |
13 | Huddersfield | 12 | 12 |
14 | C Palace | 13 | 15 |
15 | Watford | 18 | 9 |
16 | West Ham | 8 | 20 |
17 | Everton | 17 | 17 |
18 | Swansea | 16 | 16 |
19 | Bournemouth | 20 | 18 |
20 | Stoke | 19 | 19 |
METHOD AND CAVEATS FOR PLAYER RANKINGS
This is just one part of ranking players it’s not the be all and end all. I do a player rankings series which uses more stats than just xG and xA. There’s no filtering here for gametime security or injuries.
Here I have taken the Non penalty xG per 90 minutes (NPxG90) and the xA and converted them into goals and assist points and then total points as if they were playing over the whole season 90 minutes each game. I haven’t added on appearance points, adjusted for average minutes or bonus points or clean sheets for defenders. It’s purely just the goals and assist points. There was a minimum minutes played of 500 minutes. I’ve also added a points per million column.
Players don’t perform on a straight line with the stats. Some like Hazard and De Bruyne have shown they can over perform. Others like Tadic have a history of under performing. I have not tried to adjust for this. That’s more for the player rankings articles.
Don’t concentrate too much on the points. They are principally for ranking purposes. If you wonder why the random numbers of players it’s because I went down to a certain threshold and then it was whatever number of players ended up.
This article is very time consuming and laborious and easy to make mistakes so apologies if there is any
Player Stat abbreviations
Value £m: The FPL price at the time of the article. In this case the 11TH April
NP xG90: the non penalty expected goals per 90 minutes played
xA90: the expected assists per 90 minutes played
ProjPts: the projected attacking points based on the current NPxG90 and xA90 if the player played 38 games 90 minutes in each. No points for starting,no bonus, no clean sheet points, just goals and assists points.
Pts/£m: the projected points above per £m value. This is for Mids and Fwds only. An average is around 10 and it gives you an indication of value for money. The average is around 10.
DEFENDERS ATTACK RANKING
Rank | Player | Club | £m | NPxG 90 | xA90 | Proj/Pts |
1 | Davide Zappacosta | Chelsea | 5.9 | 0.14 | 0.11 | 44 |
2 | Marcos Alonso | Chelsea | 7.2 | 0.13 | 0.10 | 41 |
3 | Sead Kolasinac | Arsenal | 5.8 | 0.08 | 0.19 | 40 |
4 | Victor Moses | Chelsea | 6.5 | 0.12 | 0.11 | 40 |
5 | Calum Chambers | Arsenal | 4.7 | 0.15 | 0.01 | 35 |
6 | Scott Dann | Crystal Palace | 4.6 | 0.15 | 0.01 | 35 |
7 | Virgil van Dijk | Liverpool | 5.7 | 0.09 | 0.12 | 34 |
8 | Nacho Monreal | Arsenal | 5.6 | 0.08 | 0.13 | 33 |
9 | Patrick van Aanholt | Crystal Palace | 5.1 | 0.10 | 0.09 | 33 |
10 | Miguel Britos | Watford | 4.3 | 0.09 | 0.10 | 32 |
11 | Serge Aurier | Tottenham | 5.9 | 0.05 | 0.18 | 32 |
12 | Ciaran Clark | Newcastle United | 4.3 | 0.11 | 0.05 | 31 |
13 | Andrew Robertson | Liverpool | 5.1 | 0.02 | 0.23 | 31 |
14 | Ben Davies | Tottenham | 5.9 | 0.05 | 0.17 | 31 |
15 | Mamadou Sakho | Crystal Palace | 4.6 | 0.12 | 0.02 | 30 |
16 | Héctor Bellerín | Arsenal | 5.9 | 0.08 | 0.10 | 30 |
17 | Joel Matip | Liverpool | 5.4 | 0.11 | 0.03 | 29 |
18 | Nicolás Otamendi | Manchester City | 6.4 | 0.10 | 0.04 | 27 |
19 | Daryl Janmaat | Watford | 4.8 | 0.10 | 0.04 | 27 |
20 | Maya Yoshida | Southampton | 4.6 | 0.10 | 0.03 | 26 |
21 | Kieran Trippier | Tottenham | 5.2 | 0.02 | 0.19 | 26 |
22 | Harry Maguire | Leicester | 5.6 | 0.05 | 0.13 | 26 |
23 | Eric Bailly | Manchester United | 6.0 | 0.10 | 0.02 | 25 |
24 | Craig Dawson | WBA | 4.8 | 0.09 | 0.04 | 25 |
25 | Dejan Lovren | Liverpool | 5.3 | 0.08 | 0.06 | 25 |
26 | Lewis Dunk | Brighton | 4.5 | 0.10 | 0.01 | 24 |
27 | César Azpilicueta | Chelsea | 6.9 | 0.04 | 0.13 | 24 |
28 | John Stones | Manchester City | 5.3 | 0.10 | 0.00 | 23 |
29 | Laurent Koscielny | Arsenal | 6.0 | 0.09 | 0.02 | 23 |
30 | Ryan Bertrand | Southampton | 5.3 | 0.06 | 0.08 | 23 |
31 | Kyle Walker | Manchester City | 6.6 | 0.02 | 0.16 | 23 |
32 | Ryan Shawcross | Stoke | 4.8 | 0.09 | 0.01 | 22 |
33 | Trent Alexander-Arnold | Liverpool | 4.3 | 0.03 | 0.13 | 22 |
34 | Wesley Hoedt | Southampton | 5.0 | 0.08 | 0.03 | 22 |
35 | José Holebas | Watford | 4.8 | 0.02 | 0.15 | 22 |
36 | James Tomkins | Crystal Palace | 4.3 | 0.09 | 0.00 | 21 |
37 | Jonny Evans | WBA | 4.9 | 0.07 | 0.04 | 21 |
38 | Shane Duffy | Brighton | 4.6 | 0.07 | 0.04 | 21 |
39 | Vincent Kompany | Manchester City | 5.8 | 0.08 | 0.01 | 19 |
40 | Alfie Mawson | Swansea | 5.1 | 0.07 | 0.02 | 18 |
41 | Leighton Baines | Everton | 5.6 | 0.03 | 0.10 | 18 |
42 | Jeffrey Schlupp | Crystal Palace | 4.7 | 0.05 | 0.06 | 18 |
43 | Nathan Aké | Bournemouth | 5.1 | 0.05 | 0.06 | 18 |
44 | Danny Rose | Tottenham | 6.4 | 0.05 | 0.06 | 18 |
45 | David Luiz | Chelsea | 5.7 | 0.08 | 0.00 | 18 |
46 | Wes Morgan | Leicester | 4.4 | 0.07 | 0.01 | 17 |
47 | Zanka | Huddersfield | 4.5 | 0.07 | 0.01 | 17 |
48 | Ragnar Klavan | Liverpool | 4.1 | 0.07 | 0.01 | 17 |
49 | Cédric Soares | Southampton | 4.7 | 0.02 | 0.11 | 17 |
50 | Arthur Masuaku | West Ham | 4.2 | 0.01 | 0.12 | 16 |
51 | Ben Chilwell | Leicester | 4.4 | 0.01 | 0.12 | 16 |
52 | Ahmed Hegazy | WBA | 4.6 | 0.06 | 0.01 | 15 |
54 | Chris Smalling | Manchester United | 5.5 | 0.06 | 0.01 | 15 |
MIDFIELD ATTACK RANKING
Rank | Player | Club | £m | NPxG 90 | xA 90 | Proj/Pts | Pts/£m |
1 | Mohamed Salah | Liverpool | 10.5 | 0.73 | 0.26 | 168 | 16.0 |
2 | Raheem Sterling | Manchester City | 8.7 | 0.60 | 0.33 | 152 | 17.4 |
3 | Son Heung-Min | Tottenham | 8.4 | 0.48 | 0.27 | 122 | 14.5 |
4 | David Silva | Manchester City | 8.2 | 0.38 | 0.35 | 112 | 13.7 |
5 | Sadio Mané | Liverpool | 9.5 | 0.45 | 0.20 | 108 | 11.4 |
6 | Alexis Sánchez | Manchester United | 11.5 | 0.39 | 0.30 | 108 | 9.4 |
7 | Anthony Martial | Manchester United | 7.8 | 0.35 | 0.34 | 105 | 13.5 |
8 | Jesse Lingard | Manchester United | 6.0 | 0.43 | 0.17 | 101 | 16.8 |
9 | Aaron Ramsey | Arsenal | 7.0 | 0.37 | 0.24 | 98 | 14.0 |
10 | Marko Arnautovic | West Ham | 6.9 | 0.42 | 0.14 | 96 | 13.9 |
11 | Dele Alli | Tottenham | 9.0 | 0.32 | 0.30 | 95 | 10.6 |
12 | Erik Lamela | Tottenham | 6.3 | 0.34 | 0.24 | 92 | 14.6 |
13 | Leroy Sané | Manchester City | 8.6 | 0.26 | 0.36 | 90 | 10.5 |
14 | Paul Pogba | Manchester United | 7.8 | 0.33 | 0.20 | 86 | 11.0 |
15 | Willian | Chelsea | 7.2 | 0.27 | 0.29 | 84 | 11.7 |
16 | Christian Eriksen | Tottenham | 9.4 | 0.22 | 0.34 | 81 | 8.6 |
17 | Eden Hazard | Chelsea | 10.6 | 0.24 | 0.30 | 80 | 7.5 |
18 | Theo Walcott | Everton | 6.9 | 0.26 | 0.26 | 79 | 11.5 |
19 | Kevin De Bruyne | Manchester City | 10.4 | 0.16 | 0.42 | 78 | 7.5 |
20 | Richarlison | Watford | 5.9 | 0.33 | 0.13 | 78 | 13.1 |
21 | Mesut Özil | Arsenal | 9.3 | 0.18 | 0.38 | 78 | 8.3 |
22 | Bernardo Silva | Manchester City | 8.2 | 0.28 | 0.20 | 76 | 9.3 |
23 | Kenedy | Newcastle United | 4.8 | 0.24 | 0.24 | 73 | 15.2 |
24 | Wilfried Zaha | Crystal Palace | 6.8 | 0.27 | 0.18 | 72 | 10.6 |
25 | Henrikh Mkhitaryan | Arsenal | 7.7 | 0.12 | 0.39 | 67 | 8.7 |
26 | Alex Iwobi | Arsenal | 5.1 | 0.23 | 0.20 | 67 | 13.0 |
27 | Riyad Mahrez | Leicester | 9.0 | 0.20 | 0.25 | 67 | 7.4 |
28 | Choupo-Moting | Stoke | 5.3 | 0.25 | 0.13 | 62 | 11.8 |
29 | Juan Mata | Manchester United | 6.8 | 0.19 | 0.22 | 61 | 9.0 |
30 | Moussa Sissoko | Tottenham | 5.3 | 0.19 | 0.19 | 58 | 10.9 |
31 | Pedro | Chelsea | 7.7 | 0.23 | 0.11 | 56 | 7.3 |
32 | Junior Stanislas | Bournemouth | 5.9 | 0.21 | 0.13 | 55 | 9.3 |
33 | Luciano Narsingh | Swansea | 4.7 | 0.19 | 0.16 | 54 | 11.6 |
34 | Christian Atsu | Newcastle United | 4.8 | 0.20 | 0.14 | 54 | 11.2 |
35 | Cesc Fàbregas | Chelsea | 6.8 | 0.10 | 0.28 | 51 | 7.5 |
36 | Ruben Loftus-Cheek | Crystal Palace | 4.4 | 0.16 | 0.18 | 51 | 11.6 |
37 | Oxlade-Chamberlain | Arsenal, Liverpool | 5.6 | 0.14 | 0.21 | 51 | 9.0 |
38 | Dusan Tadic | Southampton | 6.2 | 0.14 | 0.21 | 51 | 8.2 |
39 | Yannick Bolasie | Everton | 6.4 | 0.24 | 0.04 | 50 | 7.8 |
40 | Jason Puncheon | Crystal Palace | 4.4 | 0.22 | 0.07 | 50 | 11.3 |
41 | Ilkay Gündogan | Manchester City | 5.3 | 0.17 | 0.15 | 49 | 9.3 |
42 | José Izquierdo | Brighton | 5.9 | 0.18 | 0.13 | 49 | 8.3 |
43 | James Ward-Prowse | Southampton | 5.0 | 0.13 | 0.21 | 49 | 9.7 |
44 | Roberto Pereyra | Watford | 5.8 | 0.17 | 0.14 | 48 | 8.3 |
45 | Demarai Gray | Leicester | 5.3 | 0.14 | 0.19 | 48 | 9.1 |
46 | Xherdan Shaqiri | Stoke | 6.2 | 0.14 | 0.19 | 48 | 7.8 |
47 | Pascal Groß | Brighton | 6.0 | 0.07 | 0.30 | 48 | 7.9 |
48 | Anthony Knockaert | Brighton | 5.5 | 0.17 | 0.13 | 47 | 8.6 |
49 | Jordon Ibe | Bournemouth | 4.7 | 0.14 | 0.18 | 47 | 10.0 |
50 | Tom Ince | Huddersfield | 5.5 | 0.21 | 0.06 | 47 | 8.5 |
FORWARD ATTACK RANKINGS
Rank | Player | Club | £m | NPxG 90 | xA 90 | Proj/Pts | Pts/£m |
1 | Olivier Giroud | Chelsea | 8.2 | 1.11 | 0.35 | 209 | 25.4 |
2 | Sergio Agüero | Manchester City | 11.6 | 0.70 | 0.30 | 141 | 12.1 |
3 | Gabriel Jesus | Manchester City | 10.0 | 0.79 | 0.12 | 134 | 13.4 |
4 | Harry Kane | Tottenham | 12.9 | 0.77 | 0.11 | 130 | 10.0 |
5 | Charlie Austin | Southampton | 5.8 | 0.80 | 0.03 | 125 | 21.6 |
6 | Álvaro Morata | Chelsea | 10.4 | 0.61 | 0.16 | 111 | 10.7 |
7 | Oumar Niasse | Everton | 4.7 | 0.59 | 0.12 | 103 | 22.0 |
8 | Alexandre Lacazette | Arsenal | 10.2 | 0.50 | 0.15 | 93 | 9.1 |
9 | Shinji Okazaki | Leicester | 5.3 | 0.52 | 0.10 | 90 | 17.1 |
10 | Romelu Lukaku | Manchester United | 11.6 | 0.46 | 0.17 | 89 | 7.7 |
11 | Daniel Sturridge | WBA | 7.9 | 0.47 | 0.15 | 89 | 11.2 |
12 | Dwight Gayle | Newcastle United | 6.1 | 0.45 | 0.13 | 83 | 13.6 |
13 | Aubameyang | Arsenal | 10.8 | 0.48 | 0.06 | 80 | 7.4 |
14 | Danny Welbeck | Arsenal | 7.3 | 0.43 | 0.11 | 78 | 10.7 |
15 | Cenk Tosun | Everton | 6.9 | 0.40 | 0.15 | 78 | 11.3 |
16 | Roberto Firmino | Liverpool | 9.5 | 0.31 | 0.27 | 78 | 8.2 |
17 | Andre Gray | Watford | 6.3 | 0.42 | 0.12 | 78 | 12.3 |
18 | Marcus Rashford | Manchester United | 7.4 | 0.29 | 0.28 | 76 | 10.3 |
19 | Christian Benteke | Crystal Palace | 7.5 | 0.40 | 0.13 | 76 | 10.1 |
20 | Chris Wood | Burnley | 6.3 | 0.43 | 0.03 | 69 | 10.9 |
21 | Jermain Defoe | Bournemouth | 7.6 | 0.39 | 0.06 | 66 | 8.7 |
22 | Peter Crouch | Stoke | 4.8 | 0.24 | 0.23 | 63 | 13.1 |
23 | Sam Vokes | Burnley | 5.7 | 0.32 | 0.12 | 62 | 10.9 |
24 | Calvert-Lewin | Everton | 5.0 | 0.28 | 0.15 | 60 | 11.9 |
25 | Tammy Abraham | Swansea | 5.4 | 0.33 | 0.07 | 58 | 10.8 |
26 | Steve Mounie | Huddersfield | 5.7 | 0.31 | 0.08 | 56 | 9.9 |
27 | Chicharito | West Ham | 6.7 | 0.31 | 0.08 | 56 | 8.4 |
28 | Ayoze Pérez | Newcastle United | 5.2 | 0.21 | 0.20 | 55 | 10.5 |
29 | Glenn Murray | Brighton | 6.0 | 0.31 | 0.06 | 54 | 9.0 |
30 | Joselu | Newcastle United | 5.5 | 0.30 | 0.07 | 54 | 9.7 |
31 | Jamie Vardy | Leicester | 8.9 | 0.28 | 0.09 | 53 | 5.9 |
32 | Callum Wilson | Bournemouth | 5.8 | 0.27 | 0.08 | 50 | 8.6 |
33 | Mame Diouf | Stoke | 5.2 | 0.27 | 0.06 | 48 | 9.2 |
34 | Ashley Barnes | Burnley | 5.4 | 0.27 | 0.05 | 47 | 8.7 |
35 | Salomón Rondón | WBA | 6.0 | 0.24 | 0.09 | 47 | 7.8 |
36 | Joshua King | Bournemouth | 7.0 | 0.18 | 0.13 | 42 | 6.0 |
37 | Jay Rodriguez | WBA | 5.3 | 0.23 | 0.06 | 42 | 7.9 |
38 | Collin Quaner | Huddersfield | 4.6 | 0.11 | 0.20 | 40 | 8.6 |
39 | Robson-Kanu | WBA | 4.9 | 0.22 | 0.04 | 38 | 7.8 |
40 | Shane Long | Southampton | 5.6 | 0.19 | 0.08 | 38 | 6.8 |
41 | Wayne Rooney | Everton | 7.2 | 0.18 | 0.09 | 38 | 5.2 |
42 | Andy Carroll | West Ham | 5.7 | 0.18 | 0.06 | 34 | 6.0 |
43 | Jordan Ayew | Swansea | 5.3 | 0.17 | 0.06 | 33 | 6.2 |
44 | Troy Deeney | Watford | 6.3 | 0.13 | 0.11 | 32 | 5.1 |
45 | Wilfried Bony | Swansea | 5.6 | 0.19 | 0.02 | 31 | 5.6 |
46 | Laurent Depoitre | Huddersfield | 5.1 | 0.14 | 0.08 | 30 | 6.0 |
47 | Tomer Hemed | Brighton | 4.7 | 0.18 | 0.01 | 29 | 6.1 |
THE XG/XA TEAM
This is a team solely made of of DGW34 players with reasonable gametime security.
I go through the rankings and have picked the top player in order with gametime security from Chelsea, Burnley, Man Utd, Spurs, Bournemouth, Southampton, Leicester and Brighton. I’ve excluded Son as I’m concerned over Lamela and Sanchez for value for money
It is just a menu of players from the various teams and is primarily aimed at being affordable although it is around £105m. I’ve made some adjustments for relative affordability
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