Here’s our FPL underlying stats GW36 article where we presented expected goals totals up to and including GW35. We look at stats for individual players by position including projected attacking points as well as a points per million calculation. There’s also a GW36 xG/xA team at the end as a summary to help you think about this weeks transfers.
FPL UNDERLYING STATS GW36 – EXPECTED GOALS TOTALS
There’s alot of stats to come so if you’d rather just look at the wildcard team for GW34 then go to the end of the article.
BACKGROUND
Expected goals is a stat where the probability is evaluated that any given shot will end up as a goal.
Expected goals are based on a number of factors, such as where the shot was taken from and where the opposition defenders are at the time. The shot assumes it is being taken by someone of average ability in the league. To state the obvious , a shot from inside the 6 yard box in front of goal with no defenders around will have a very high probability it will end up as a goal.
In essence it shows you what should have happened rather than what has happened.
The expected goals are now all wholly from the excellent free site understat.com. You can also see gameweek stats in Joseph Crilleys GW35 review
TEAM RANKINGS FOR DEFENCE
Here I rank the teams overall for defence only this week and then home and away by expected goals
Ovr Rank | Home | Away | |
1 | Manchester City | 1 | 1 |
2 | Chelsea | 4 | 2 |
3 | Tottenham | 3 | 3 |
4 | Liverpool | 2 | 4 |
5 | Manchester United | 5 | 10 |
6 | Leicester | 7 | 6 |
7 | WBA | 9 | 8 |
8 | Arsenal | 13 | 5 |
9 | Southampton | 6 | 13 |
10 | Brighton | 12 | 11 |
11 | Burnley | 15 | 7 |
12 | Huddersfield | 10 | 12 |
13 | Newcastle United | 11 | 14 |
14 | Watford | 18 | 9 |
15 | Crystal Palace | 14 | 15 |
16 | Everton | 16 | 16 |
17 | West Ham | 8 | 20 |
18 | Swansea | 17 | 18 |
19 | Stoke | 19 | 17 |
20 | Bournemouth | 20 | 19 |
METHOD AND CAVEATS FOR PLAYER RANKINGS
This is just one part of ranking players it’s not the be all and end all. I do a player rankings series which uses more stats than just xG and xA. There’s no filtering here for gametime security or injuries.
Here I have taken the Non penalty xG per 90 minutes (NPxG90) and the xA and converted them into goals and assist points and then total points as if they were playing over the whole season 90 minutes each game. I haven’t added on appearance points, adjusted for average minutes or bonus points or clean sheets for defenders. It’s purely just the goals and assist points. There was a minimum minutes played of 500 minutes. I’ve also added a points per million column.
Players don’t perform on a straight line with the stats. Some like Hazard and De Bruyne have shown they can over perform. Others like Tadic have a history of under performing. I have not tried to adjust for this. That’s more for the player rankings articles.
Don’t concentrate too much on the points. They are principally for ranking purposes. If you wonder why the random numbers of players it’s because I went down to a certain threshold and then it was whatever number of players ended up.
This article is very time consuming and laborious and easy to make mistakes so apologies if there is any
Player Stat abbreviations
Value £m: The FPL price at the time of the article. In this case Tuesday 24th of April
NP xG90: the non penalty expected goals per 90 minutes played
xA90: the expected assists per 90 minutes played
ProjPts: the projected attacking points based on the current NPxG90 and xA90 if the player played 38 games 90 minutes in each. No points for starting,no bonus, no clean sheet points, just goals and assists points.
Pts/£m: the projected points above per £m value. This is for Mids and Fwds only. An average is around 10 and it gives you an indication of value for money.
DEFENDERS ATTACK RANKING
Rank | Player | Club | Val £m | NPxG | xA | Proj/Pts |
1 | Calum Chambers | Arsenal | 4.7 | 0.20 | 0.01 | 47 |
2 | Davide Zappacosta | Chelsea | 5.9 | 0.14 | 0.11 | 44 |
3 | Marcos Alonso | Chelsea | 7.1 | 0.13 | 0.10 | 41 |
4 | Sead Kolasinac | Arsenal | 5.8 | 0.08 | 0.19 | 40 |
5 | Victor Moses | Chelsea | 6.5 | 0.12 | 0.11 | 40 |
6 | James Milner | Liverpool | 6.0 | 0.06 | 0.18 | 34 |
7 | Miguel Britos | Watford | 4.3 | 0.09 | 0.10 | 32 |
8 | Nacho Monreal | Arsenal | 5.6 | 0.08 | 0.12 | 32 |
9 | Patrick van Aanholt | Crystal Palace | 5.1 | 0.10 | 0.08 | 32 |
10 | Andrew Robertson | Liverpool | 5.1 | 0.03 | 0.22 | 32 |
11 | Héctor Bellerín | Arsenal | 5.9 | 0.08 | 0.11 | 31 |
12 | Ciaran Clark | Newcastle United | 4.3 | 0.11 | 0.05 | 31 |
13 | Virgil van Dijk | Liverpool | 5.7 | 0.08 | 0.10 | 30 |
14 | Kevin Long | Burnley | 4.1 | 0.06 | 0.14 | 30 |
15 | Joel Matip | Liverpool | 5.4 | 0.11 | 0.03 | 29 |
16 | Seamus Coleman | Everton | 6.4 | 0.08 | 0.08 | 27 |
17 | Nicolás Otamendi | Manchester City | 6.4 | 0.10 | 0.04 | 27 |
18 | Ben Davies | Tottenham | 5.8 | 0.04 | 0.15 | 26 |
19 | Maya Yoshida | Southampton | 4.6 | 0.10 | 0.03 | 26 |
20 | Eric Bailly | Manchester United | 6.0 | 0.10 | 0.02 | 25 |
21 | Mamadou Sakho | Crystal Palace | 4.6 | 0.10 | 0.02 | 25 |
22 | Alexander-Arnold | Liverpool | 4.4 | 0.03 | 0.16 | 25 |
23 | Dejan Lovren | Liverpool | 5.3 | 0.08 | 0.06 | 25 |
24 | Lewis Dunk | Brighton | 4.5 | 0.09 | 0.04 | 25 |
25 | Daryl Janmaat | Watford | 4.8 | 0.09 | 0.03 | 24 |
26 | Craig Dawson | WBA | 4.8 | 0.09 | 0.03 | 24 |
27 | James Tomkins | Crystal Palace | 4.3 | 0.10 | 0.00 | 23 |
28 | John Stones | Manchester City | 5.3 | 0.10 | 0.00 | 23 |
29 | Laurent Koscielny | Arsenal | 6.0 | 0.09 | 0.02 | 23 |
30 | César Azpilicueta | Chelsea | 6.9 | 0.04 | 0.12 | 23 |
31 | Kyle Walker | Manchester City | 6.6 | 0.02 | 0.15 | 22 |
32 | José Holebas | Watford | 4.8 | 0.02 | 0.15 | 22 |
33 | Ryan Shawcross | Stoke | 4.8 | 0.09 | 0.01 | 22 |
34 | Ryan Bertrand | Southampton | 5.3 | 0.05 | 0.09 | 22 |
35 | Jonny Evans | WBA | 4.9 | 0.07 | 0.04 | 21 |
36 | Shane Duffy | Brighton | 4.6 | 0.07 | 0.04 | 21 |
37 | Chris Smalling | Manchester United | 5.6 | 0.08 | 0.01 | 19 |
38 | Wesley Hoedt | Southampton | 5.0 | 0.07 | 0.03 | 19 |
39 | Vincent Kompany | Manchester City | 5.9 | 0.07 | 0.03 | 19 |
40 | Zanka | Huddersfield | 4.5 | 0.07 | 0.03 | 19 |
41 | David Luiz | Chelsea | 5.7 | 0.08 | 0.00 | 18 |
42 | Alfie Mawson | Swansea | 5.1 | 0.07 | 0.02 | 18 |
43 | Leighton Baines | Everton | 5.6 | 0.03 | 0.10 | 18 |
44 | Danny Rose | Tottenham | 6.4 | 0.05 | 0.06 | 18 |
45 | Wes Morgan | Leicester | 4.4 | 0.07 | 0.01 | 17 |
46 | Aaron Cresswell | West Ham | 4.9 | 0.02 | 0.11 | 17 |
47 | Cédric Soares | Southampton | 4.7 | 0.02 | 0.11 | 17 |
48 | Nathan Aké | Bournemouth | 5.0 | 0.05 | 0.05 | 17 |
49 | Ahmed Hegazy | WBA | 4.6 | 0.06 | 0.01 | 15 |
50 | Ragnar Klavan | Liverpool | 4.1 | 0.06 | 0.01 | 15 |
51 | Ben Mee | Burnley | 4.9 | 0.06 | 0.01 | 15 |
52 | Ben Chilwell | Leicester | 4.4 | 0.01 | 0.11 | 15 |
53 | Arthur Masuaku | West Ham | 4.2 | 0.01 | 0.11 | 15 |
54 | Kiko Femenía | Watford | 4.3 | 0.02 | 0.08 | 14 |
55 | Charlie Daniels | Bournemouth | 4.7 | 0.02 | 0.08 | 14 |
MIDFIELD ATTACK RANKING
Rank | Player | Club | Val £m | NPxG | xA | Proj/Pts | Pts/£m |
1 | Mohamed Salah | Liverpool | 10.6 | 0.72 | 0.24 | 164 | 15.5 |
2 | Raheem Sterling | Manchester City | 9.0 | 0.66 | 0.31 | 161 | 17.9 |
3 | Son Heung-Min | Tottenham | 8.3 | 0.46 | 0.27 | 118 | 14.2 |
4 | Sadio Mané | Liverpool | 9.5 | 0.46 | 0.19 | 109 | 11.5 |
5 | David Silva | Manchester City | 8.2 | 0.35 | 0.34 | 105 | 12.8 |
6 | Alexis Sánchez | Manchester United | 11.5 | 0.37 | 0.30 | 105 | 9.1 |
7 | Jesse Lingard | Manchester United | 6.0 | 0.41 | 0.19 | 100 | 16.6 |
8 | Anthony Martial | Manchester United | 7.8 | 0.33 | 0.32 | 99 | 12.7 |
9 | Aaron Ramsey | Arsenal | 6.8 | 0.36 | 0.26 | 98 | 14.4 |
10 | Dele Alli | Tottenham | 9.0 | 0.31 | 0.29 | 92 | 10.2 |
11 | Marko Arnautovic | West Ham | 7.0 | 0.40 | 0.13 | 91 | 13.0 |
12 | Leroy Sané | Manchester City | 8.6 | 0.26 | 0.35 | 89 | 10.4 |
13 | Marouane Fellaini | Manchester United | 4.7 | 0.44 | 0.03 | 87 | 18.5 |
14 | Paul Pogba | Manchester United | 7.9 | 0.32 | 0.21 | 85 | 10.7 |
15 | Erik Lamela | Tottenham | 6.3 | 0.31 | 0.21 | 83 | 13.1 |
16 | Willian | Chelsea | 7.1 | 0.26 | 0.29 | 82 | 11.6 |
17 | Christian Eriksen | Tottenham | 9.5 | 0.22 | 0.34 | 81 | 8.5 |
18 | Eden Hazard | Chelsea | 10.5 | 0.25 | 0.29 | 81 | 7.7 |
19 | Bernardo Silva | Manchester City | 7.2 | 0.30 | 0.20 | 80 | 11.1 |
20 | Wilfried Zaha | Crystal Palace | 6.9 | 0.31 | 0.17 | 78 | 11.3 |
21 | Mesut Özil | Arsenal | 9.3 | 0.18 | 0.38 | 78 | 8.3 |
22 | Kevin De Bruyne | Manchester City | 10.3 | 0.16 | 0.40 | 76 | 7.4 |
23 | Richarlison | Watford | 5.9 | 0.32 | 0.13 | 76 | 12.8 |
24 | Theo Walcott | Arsenal, Everton | 6.8 | 0.24 | 0.24 | 73 | 10.7 |
25 | Riyad Mahrez | Leicester | 8.9 | 0.21 | 0.24 | 67 | 7.6 |
26 | Henrikh Mkhitaryan | Arsenal | 7.7 | 0.12 | 0.39 | 67 | 8.7 |
27 | Alex Iwobi | Arsenal | 5.1 | 0.22 | 0.19 | 63 | 12.4 |
28 | Kenedy | Newcastle United | 4.8 | 0.21 | 0.20 | 63 | 13.1 |
29 | Choupo-Moting | Stoke | 5.3 | 0.25 | 0.13 | 62 | 11.8 |
30 | Juan Mata | Manchester United | 6.8 | 0.19 | 0.22 | 61 | 9.0 |
31 | Alex Chamberlain | Liverpool | 5.6 | 0.14 | 0.26 | 56 | 10.0 |
32 | Junior Stanislas | Bournemouth | 5.7 | 0.21 | 0.13 | 55 | 9.6 |
33 | Moussa Sissoko | Tottenham | 5.3 | 0.18 | 0.18 | 55 | 10.3 |
34 | Christian Atsu | Newcastle United | 4.8 | 0.20 | 0.14 | 54 | 11.2 |
35 | Pedro | Chelsea | 7.7 | 0.22 | 0.10 | 53 | 6.9 |
36 | Ilkay Gündogan | Manchester City | 5.4 | 0.17 | 0.16 | 51 | 9.4 |
37 | Dusan Tadic | Southampton | 6.2 | 0.15 | 0.19 | 50 | 8.1 |
38 | Jason Puncheon | Crystal Palace | 4.4 | 0.22 | 0.07 | 50 | 11.3 |
39 | Cesc Fàbregas | Chelsea | 6.8 | 0.10 | 0.27 | 50 | 7.3 |
40 | Tom Ince | Huddersfield | 5.5 | 0.23 | 0.05 | 49 | 9.0 |
41 | Luciano Narsingh | Swansea | 4.7 | 0.17 | 0.15 | 49 | 10.5 |
42 | José Izquierdo | Brighton | 5.9 | 0.18 | 0.12 | 48 | 8.1 |
43 | Roberto Pereyra | Watford | 5.8 | 0.17 | 0.13 | 47 | 8.1 |
44 | Manuel Lanzini | West Ham | 6.6 | 0.14 | 0.18 | 47 | 7.1 |
45 | Ward-Prowse | Southampton | 4.9 | 0.12 | 0.21 | 47 | 9.5 |
46 | Yannick Bolasie | Everton | 6.4 | 0.22 | 0.04 | 46 | 7.2 |
47 | Demarai Gray | Leicester | 5.3 | 0.13 | 0.19 | 46 | 8.7 |
48 | Xherdan Shaqiri | Stoke | 6.2 | 0.13 | 0.19 | 46 | 7.5 |
49 | Jordon Ibe | Bournemouth | 4.7 | 0.14 | 0.17 | 46 | 9.8 |
50 | Loftus-Cheek | Crystal Palace | 4.4 | 0.14 | 0.17 | 46 | 10.5 |
51 | Matt Ritchie | Newcastle United | 5.4 | 0.11 | 0.21 | 45 | 8.3 |
52 | Andros Townsend | Crystal Palace | 5.6 | 0.09 | 0.23 | 43 | 7.7 |
53 | Pascal Groß | Brighton | 6.0 | 0.06 | 0.28 | 43 | 7.2 |
FORWARD ATTACK RANKINGS
Rank | Player | Club | Val £m | NPxG | xA | Proj/Pts | Pts/£m |
1 | Olivier Giroud | Chelsea | 8.2 | 0.95 | 0.37 | 187 | 22.8 |
2 | Sergio Agüero | Manchester City | 11.5 | 0.70 | 0.30 | 141 | 12.2 |
3 | Gabriel Jesus | Manchester City | 10.3 | 0.80 | 0.11 | 134 | 13.0 |
4 | Harry Kane | Tottenham | 12.8 | 0.76 | 0.11 | 128 | 10.0 |
5 | Kelechi Iheanacho | Leicester | 6.5 | 0.59 | 0.28 | 122 | 18.7 |
6 | Charlie Austin | Southampton | 5.8 | 0.75 | 0.03 | 117 | 20.2 |
7 | Álvaro Morata | Chelsea | 10.4 | 0.63 | 0.15 | 113 | 10.9 |
8 | Oumar Niasse | Everton | 4.7 | 0.59 | 0.12 | 103 | 22.0 |
9 | Alexandre Lacazette | Arsenal | 10.2 | 0.50 | 0.15 | 93 | 9.1 |
10 | Shinji Okazaki | Leicester | 5.3 | 0.50 | 0.12 | 90 | 16.9 |
11 | Romelu Lukaku | Manchester United | 11.5 | 0.47 | 0.16 | 90 | 7.8 |
12 | Daniel Sturridge | WBA | 7.9 | 0.47 | 0.15 | 89 | 11.2 |
13 | Aubameyang | Arsenal | 10.8 | 0.43 | 0.12 | 79 | 7.3 |
14 | Dwight Gayle | Newcastle United | 6.1 | 0.43 | 0.12 | 79 | 13.0 |
15 | Roberto Firmino | Liverpool | 9.6 | 0.32 | 0.26 | 78 | 8.2 |
16 | Andre Gray | Watford | 6.3 | 0.42 | 0.12 | 78 | 12.3 |
17 | Christian Benteke | Crystal Palace | 7.5 | 0.39 | 0.14 | 75 | 10.0 |
18 | Cenk Tosun | Everton | 6.8 | 0.35 | 0.19 | 75 | 11.0 |
19 | Marcus Rashford | Manchester United | 7.4 | 0.29 | 0.26 | 74 | 10.0 |
20 | Chris Wood | Burnley | 6.4 | 0.41 | 0.03 | 66 | 10.3 |
21 | Peter Crouch | Stoke | 4.8 | 0.26 | 0.21 | 63 | 13.2 |
22 | Sam Vokes | Burnley | 5.7 | 0.31 | 0.12 | 61 | 10.7 |
23 | Jermain Defoe | Bournemouth | 7.6 | 0.36 | 0.05 | 60 | 8.0 |
24 | Tammy Abraham | Swansea | 5.4 | 0.33 | 0.07 | 58 | 10.8 |
25 | Glenn Murray | Brighton | 6.0 | 0.34 | 0.05 | 57 | 9.6 |
26 | Chicharito | West Ham | 6.7 | 0.31 | 0.09 | 57 | 8.6 |
27 | Calvert-Lewin | Everton | 5.0 | 0.26 | 0.15 | 57 | 11.3 |
28 | Jamie Vardy | Leicester | 8.9 | 0.31 | 0.08 | 56 | 6.3 |
29 | Ayoze Pérez | Newcastle United | 5.3 | 0.22 | 0.20 | 56 | 10.6 |
30 | Callum Wilson | Bournemouth | 5.7 | 0.29 | 0.08 | 53 | 9.3 |
31 | Joselu | Newcastle United | 5.5 | 0.29 | 0.07 | 52 | 9.5 |
32 | Ashley Barnes | Burnley | 5.4 | 0.28 | 0.06 | 49 | 9.1 |
33 | Mame Biram Diouf | Stoke | 5.2 | 0.27 | 0.06 | 48 | 9.2 |
34 | Steve Mounie | Huddersfield | 5.5 | 0.31 | 0.00 | 47 | 8.6 |
35 | Salomón Rondón | WBA | 6.0 | 0.24 | 0.09 | 47 | 7.8 |
36 | Joshua King | Bournemouth | 7.0 | 0.18 | 0.15 | 44 | 6.4 |
37 | Jay Rodriguez | WBA | 5.3 | 0.23 | 0.06 | 42 | 7.9 |
38 | Shane Long | Southampton | 5.6 | 0.21 | 0.08 | 41 | 7.3 |
39 | Hal Robson-Kanu | WBA | 4.9 | 0.22 | 0.04 | 38 | 7.8 |
40 | Collin Quaner | Huddersfield | 4.5 | 0.10 | 0.19 | 37 | 8.2 |
41 | Andy Carroll | West Ham | 5.7 | 0.19 | 0.07 | 37 | 6.5 |
42 | Wayne Rooney | Everton | 7.1 | 0.17 | 0.09 | 36 | 5.1 |
43 | Jordan Ayew | Swansea | 5.3 | 0.18 | 0.07 | 35 | 6.7 |
44 | Troy Deeney | Watford | 6.3 | 0.13 | 0.11 | 32 | 5.1 |
45 | Wilfried Bony | Swansea | 5.6 | 0.19 | 0.02 | 31 | 5.6 |
46 | Laurent Depoitre | Huddersfield | 5.1 | 0.14 | 0.07 | 29 | 5.7 |
47 | Tomer Hemed | Brighton | 4.6 | 0.18 | 0.01 | 29 | 6.2 |
48 | Manolo Gabbiadini | Southampton | 6.2 | 0.10 | 0.04 | 20 | 3.2 |
THE XG/XA TEAM
This is a team solely made of of DGW37 players with reasonable gametime security although some trade offs have been made due to value. One from each team in attack and defence maximum.
I go through the rankings and have picked the top player in order with reasonable gametime security from Chelsea, Man Utd, Spurs, Arsenal, Man City, Huddersfield, Southampton, Leicester, Swansea, Newcastle, West Ham and Brighton. There are also adjustments for value for money.
In defence I took the top 7 teams and picked the best attacking ranked player. Gks were a compromise.
I’ve excluded Son as I’m concerned over Lamela and Sanchez for value for money. I went for Lingard and Willian as both are great value although do have gametime and minutes risk.
I went for Jesus over Sterling as Jesus probably has less rotation risk with Aguero’s injury. Murray is probably the best value of the cheap strikers although he is susceptible to being subbed which could cause DGW37 issues.
It is just a menu of players from the various teams and is primarily aimed at being affordable although it is around £104.5m.
Follow us on twitter and facebook for article updates and news.
GEEK LEAGUES
Fantasy Premier League: 5379-1967
Sun: FantasyFootballGeek SGDKX9Y3
TFF: FantasyFootballGeek PIN 8000919 Passcode 1159
Sky: FFGeek 8310511