fantasy premier league captain choice GW16

Here’s our fantasy premier league captain choice GW16 article.  We look at the fixtures, the anytime goal scorer bookies odds, other FPL advice sites polls, the FFGeek choice and 2 of the top 10 FPL managers I follow.  Also this week were back to giving some stats on the leading contenders

fantasy premier league captain choice GW16

Here’s the fixtures firstly or a bit of context

So Everton, Man City and Spurs all have good fixtures

 Bookies odds

Here’s the anytime goalscoring odds for those at less then £2.50 for £1 invested.

£1.67 – Kane

£1.85 – Bony

£1.91 – Iheanacho

£2.00 – Benteke

£2.10 – Giroud,  Heung-Min Son

£2.20 – Origi

£2.37 –  De Bruyne Sterling

£2.40 – Coutinho

£2.45 – Walcott,

£2.50 – Lukaku, Silva Yaya Toure

So a pretty clear message there with Lukaku having such long odds. I had to check it twice?  Lukaku seems good value to me at £2.50.  May have to put a tenner on

FPL advice sites polls

Site 1 is the main FPL advice site btw and it is a pretty reasonable correlation for what the top 10k play. An interesting week this will be and again it will be rank changing if the scores are different given the relatively even spead

The top FPL managers I follow

3 at the moment have got visible teams.  All 3 have gone for Kane

Basic stats of the top 4

Lukaku Everton  fwd £9.1m away to Norwich

15 games 11 goals 4 assists.  FPL point every  13.1 mins.  Consistency return rate (return in a game of a goal or assist) 9 returns from 15 games ie 60%. Pretty good shooting and creating chances stats considering tricky fixtures earlier on.  Fairly reliable for 90 minutes too.  Will have pen duties

Lukaku away games to date with the most recent at the bottom:

SOU(A) 3-0 88 minutes 2 Goals 0 Assists 3 Bonus 13 points
TOT(A) 0-0 90 minutes 0 Goals 0 Assists 0 Bonus 2 Points
SWA(A) 0-0 90 minutes 0 Goals 0 Assists 0 Bonus 2 Points
WBA(A) 3-2 88 minutes 2 Goals 1 Assists 3 Bonus 16 Points
ARS(A) 1-2 90 minutes 0 Goals 0 Assists 0 Bonus 2 Point
WHU(A) 1-1 77 minutes 1 Goals  0 Assists 2 Bonus 8 Points

BOU (A) 3-3 90 minutes 1 Goals  0 Assists 0 Bonus 6 Points

Interestingly with the lower ranked teams he’s only blanked against Swansea which is pretty impressive

Norwich defence:  7 games away with only 9 goals conceded only 1  clean sheet.  Interestingly the underlying stats aren’t that bad.  The main fault is the conceding of big chances which is obviously an important stat

Norwich home games (most recent at the bottom)

CRY(H) 1-3
STK(H) 1-1
BOU(H) 3-1
LEI(H) 1-2
WBA(H) 0-1
SWA(H) 1-0
ARS(H) 1-1

So they’ve certainly tightened up in the last 3 games and have taken a more defensive approach.  Only Arsenal are a tester in that last 3 though

Summary:Lukaku is in great form and has shown the ability away from home to score against lower ranked teams.  The Norwich defence seems to have tightened up recently although only Arsenal have been a testing force

De Bruyne Man City  mid £10.9m home to Swansea

11 games 4 goals 6 assists.  FPL point every 12.9 mins.  Consistency return rate 6 returns from 11 games ie 55%.  Very good underlying creating chances stats but little in the way of shooting.

De Bruynes home  games most recent at the bottom

WHM(H) 1-2 90 minutes 1 goal 0 assist 3 bonus 10 points
NEW(H) 6-1 90 minutes 1 goal 2 assist    2 bonus   15 points
BOU(H) 5-1 61 minutes 0 goal 1 assist    0 bonus  5 points
NOR(H) 2-1 72 minutes 0 goal 1 assist    0 bonus   5 points
LIV(H) 1-4 90 minutes 0 goal 0 assist    0 bonus   2 points
SOU(H) 3-1 90 minutes 1 goal  2 assists  3 bonus 16 points

Thats a pretty impressive home record to say the least.

Swansea away defence: 76 games 10 goals conceded 0 clean sheets. The underlying defensive stats are ok.  Sort of upper mid table in all departments

Swansea’s away games this season with the most recent last:

CHE(A) 2-2
SUN(A) 1-1
WAT(A) 0-1
SOU(A) 1-3
AVL(A) 2-1
NOR(A) 0-1
LIV(A) 0-1

So a pretty good record really with Southampton being the only blip

Summary:

 Kane Spurs FWD  £9.7m home to Newcastle

15 games 8 goals 0 assists.  FPL point every 18.9 mins.  Consistency return rate 5 returns from 15 games ie 33%.  Not returned in his last 2 starts.  Good underlying creating chances stats and shooting stats. Does have pen duties.

Kanes home games:

STK(H) 2-2 63 minutes 0 Goals 0 Assists 0 Bonus 2 points
EVE(H) 0-0 90 minutes 0 Goals 0 Assists 0 Bonus 2 Points
CPL(H) 1-0 90 minutes 0 Goals 0 Assists 2 Bonus 2 Points
MCY(H) 4-1 90 minutes 1 Goals 0 Assists 2 Bonus 7 Points
LIV(H) 0-0 90 minutes 0 Goals 0 Assists 0 Bonus 2 Point
AVL(H) 3-1  90 minutes 1 Goals  0 Assists 2 Bonus 8 Points

WHM(H) 4-1 90 minutes 2 Goals 0 Assists 3 Bonus 13 Point
CHE(H) 0-0  90 minutes 0 Goals  0 Assists 0 Bonus 1 Points
After a slow start it’s a good record against the 2 teams in Villa and West Ham where you would be looking for him to score.

Newcastle away defence:  7 games 18 goals conceded 2 clean sheets. Only Sunderland have conceded more goals away.  The underlying defensive stats aren’t great but they’re bottom third rather than bottom.

Newcastles  away games this season with the most recent first:

SWA(A) 0-2
MUN(A) 0-0
WHU(A) 0-2
MCI(A) 1-6
SUN(A) 0-3
BOU(A) 1-0
CRY(A) 1-5

So a pretty terrible record to say the least.  Even the Bournemouth game they could have lost by 5 had Bournemoputh not been sop hopeless in front of goal.

Summary:  Been pretty inconsistent this season although much better after a slow start.  Passed the captain test in recent performances at home against lower ranked opposition.  Newcastle defence has been terrible away from home

The FFGeek choice:

So a crucial pick.  Im going to go for Kane on recent form against the lower ranked teams and the poor away form of the Newcastle defence

Good luck who ever you choose.

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