Last seasons top 1k telegraph fantasy football overall finisher Stephen Troop reviews September and looks at what October has in store for us and his teams
TELEGRAPH FANTASY FOOTBALL PUNDIT STEPHEN TROOP REVIEWS SEPTEMBER AND PLANS FOR OCTOBER
Hi all. This is the second instalment in my monthly series of articles covering Telegraph fantasy football. I will give an overview of my team’s performances to date and reflect on the last few game weeks. I will then look ahead to the next month and outline current plans and players on my watch/transfer list. Please leave feedback in the comments after so I can improve these going forward. See also Stephens August review and his TFF strategy article
Team Review
As mentioned in my previous article I have 5 season long teams. Their scores/current ranks are as follows alongside with their rank at the end of August and their starting xi rank. 2 teams have used 4 transfers and 2 teams have used 5. 1 has used 6 although all of these were forced due to an unfortunate series of injuries/suspensions. 4 or 5 transfers feels ok after 7 games however there were varying degrees of success with them and haven’t brought me as many additional points as I’d want.
The majority of teams have a better rank now and I am generally happy with 3 teams within the top 10k and 1 in top 5k. This has been more down to the starting xi than my transfers though. Interestingly my top ranked team was 4th last time and my bottom ranked team was 1st which shows how quickly things change at this stage. Rank is still pretty vola3tile too. I’m also pretty happy having a starting xi rank of 48 given that most teams around this rank are heavy with City or United whereas mine is more balanced. Shame after a few transfers it’s 10 points worse off.
September Review – The winners
Premium strikers
Kane’s dry August was put to bed and proved that underlying stats can’t continue to be defied. 6 goals for September (all away from home) stopped the August jitters us managers had for now. Lukaku keeps the steady stream of goals coming with 1 goal in each September game though has been far from convincing.
Jesus had a much more successful September with 3 goals and 2 KCs although was frustratingly rested for the game against Palace and has yet to play a full 90 minutes. With Aguero’s injury he should continue with the goals and be less likely to be subbed early. Morata has adapted to the premier league well with 4 September PL goals, albeit 3 against Stoke. He has blanked in the big games against Spurs, Arsenal and City but has a favourable run of fixtures now depending on how serious his injury is.
Aguero with 5 goals and 3 KC’s in September made us all forget why we ignored him at the start. His recent injury makes me grateful that I’m not using the usual ¼ of my transfers getting him in/out though. Lacazette completed the premium range with 3 September goals. Has the advantage that he is on penalties but for me doesn’t look as stronger candidate as the others with Sanchez now returned and Giroud taking away his minutes.
Ben Davies
An absolute steal at £3.4m, Davies is everything you could want from a fantasy football perspective. In a strong defensive team. Has created 16 chances (more than any other defender and more than all but 4 midfielders) and has had more goal attempts than all defenders except Alonso. He is now the second highest scoring defender in the game. Whilst there could be rotation when Rose returns (If that even happens!) his place is surely safe for a while yet. On the downside with Liverpool, United and Arsenal over the next 4 he, and Spurs will be tested.
United defenders
6 clean sheets in 7 has meant steady points for the united rear-guard. Jones has been exceptional value at £3.2m. Bailly was frustratingly (for me) benched against Palace where a clean sheet was almost certain but will hopefully be back in the starting line up soon. United will face sterner tests over the next few games with Liverpool, Spurs and Chelsea to face in the next 4 but over the season I would expect them to be top of the clean sheet pile. The lack of attacking potential compared to the wingbacks in other teams is the downside.
Manchester City
17 goals in the PL in September with 0 conceded is going to get noticed. The problem is deciding what assets you want going forward. De Bruyne despite playing deep has amassed 6 KC’s and a goal to make me transferring out look a mistake. I still feel that he plays too deep for this to continue and his £5.7m price is high. Silva has played well earning 4 KC’s in September for £0.8m less than the Belgian. Sterling with 4 goals and Sane with 3 goals and 2 KC’s in September shows their potential too. Sterling looks good value at £4.6m and he has started the last 4 games. Sane (£4.9m) has only started 3 all season which makes his stats more impressive. I’m backing him to start/score more with Aguero out and a kind run of fixtures. Walker looks a good attacking option at the back but Otamendi is proving excellent value at £3.7m. He has good shooting stats and 1 goal so far. Rotation will be an issue with City but with the points potential of so many assets it’s a piece of the pie we all want a piece of.
Arsenal Defence
After a bad August, Arsenal have had a good August with a much-improved resilience at the back with 4/4 clean sheets including against Chelsea away. Monreal (£3.8m) has been superb and was rewarded with a goal last weekend. He is the only defender to start every game so far for the Gunners. Kolasinac however is still my pick. From wingback, he has picked up 1 KC in September to add to the one in August but could easily have had a couple more at the weekend after creating 2 big chances. He also hasn’t been afraid to shoot.
Cresswell
West Ham’s defence has improved in September after a bad start to the season. They have kept 3 out of 4 clean sheets and the underlying stats have improved. Their total shots conceded in September is the 5th lowest in the league and shots in the box conceded is 2nd lowest behind Manchester City. From a fantasy perspective, Cresswell looks good value at £3.4m. Fixtures remain strong over the next 6 game weeks before they turn. His 1 KC during September could have been more. He attempted 58 crosses in September (twice as many as any other defender) with 13 successful (again highest of all defenders). With Big Andy Carroll to aim at, Cresswell could get some good points in October.
Gross
One of the big bandwagons this season so far with 2 goals and 3 KC’s in September for a mere £2.7m price tag. At the start of the season he was on my radar due to the fact he created more chances in the Bungledesia last year than any other player (despite being relegated). I was (and remain) sceptical that Brighton will be attacking enough for Gross to continue this form. He is not known for his goal scoring prowess and going forward I would only expect the occasional KC from his set piece responsibility. The short term fixtures are reasonable and his price tag is kind but he isn’t somebody I am currently looking to get.
September Review – The losers
Liverpool
1 win in 4 has derailed Liverpool’s good start. Mane’s suspension won’t have helped things but the team’s underlying shooting stats haven’t suffered following this. The low conversion rate of those chances and poor defending has contributed to their poor form. Mane is now back as is Coutinho so the goals should continue. I still believe Salah is excellent value at £4.5 compared to the £5.4 of Coutinho and £5.3 of Mane. He has scored 2 in September but with the chances he has had should have been more.
Crystal Palace
7 games, 0 wins, 0 goals and their only first team striker injured it is looking bleak for Palace. The only thing to consider from a fantasy football perspective is looking at who is playing them soon. The return of Zaha will boost their attacking options but without a good striker to assist I don’t see many points for any Palace players.
Everton
Everton’s bleak start to the season could be attributed to a tough start with Chelsea, Tottenham, United and City in the first 5 games. As a result, I was expecting to be able to consider their assets from GW6 when they had a good run of fixtures. The tough start they have however seem to have dented their confidence and their attack looks toothless without Lukaku. Defensively I haven’t seen enough to want to transfer players in yet but the potential is there.
Bargain Strikers
While premium strikers flourished, the opposite can be said of lower prices strikers. Rooney, Defoe and Chicarito were my preseason ones to watch. The former 2 appear to be struggling and Chicarito has now moved to the wings to accommodate big Andy Carroll up front which limits is prospects as a poacher. Wood has started his PL life with a couple of goals but I’m unsure whether Burnley are attacking enough for him to get 10+ goals through the season. Mounie scored twice in the first game but proved to be a flash in the pan as he hasn’t been on the score sheet since and has been injured these last 3 weeks. Huddersfield’s fixtures get tougher too.
October Preview – Ones to watch
Hazard
Needs no introduction. Has been eased back into Premier league action but is looking sharp. His output will likely depend on the extent of Morata’s injury and as the most expensive midfielder in the game may warrant a bit more observation before committing to. He certainly has the fixtures to flourish and get his current season underway. Palace next could be the ideal start.
Richarlison/Doucoure
Watford have been very impressive this season under Silva’s management. Richarlison (£3.0m) in particular has impressed me. He scored an additional couple of goals in September and has moved to the 4th highest point scoring Midfielder. His good underlying stats suggest this could continue however he has two tough fixtures next in Arsenal and Chelsea.
Doucoure has also been impressive. 3 goals for the season (the same as Richarlison) but is only £2.0m, the cheapest a midfield player can be in TFF. Still pretty low ownership for the pair (3.8% and 7.8%) but I suspect this will change over the next month. Doucare does play a more defensive midfield position and doesn’t have the underlying stats of Richarlison so I don’t believe his points will continue but at £2.0 you don’t need many KC’s or goals over the season to be worth it.
Baines
Like Cresswell has good crossing and his big chance creation stats for the last few weeks are good but without the clean sheet points he has been overlooked as a fantasy asset. Cresswell is currently the best option at £3.3m but if Everton can start to improve then Baines could make his way into our squads over the next month.
Ward
Burnley are another team to impress me this season. I thought they would be fighting relegation but they have been fantastic, going away to Chelsea, Everton and Spurs and not losing. I am still unsure about their attacking players as fantasy assets (Wood and Brady the best options really) but defensively Ward looks great value at £2.3m. He already has a goal and KC to his name and his stats suggest he could get more attacking returns. Tarkowski is even cheaper at £2.1 but has less attacking threat. Mee has some good shooting stats too from set pieces but don’t feel he is worth the £0.7m more than Ward.
Choupo Moting
Stoke have also had a tough run of fixtures to start the season with but have had decent results against Arsenal and Man United at the Bet 365 stadium. Over the season Choupo Moting has the best underlying attacking stats and has impressed me the most overall out of their signings. He has had 2 goals and 2 KCs in September and has been deployed as a striker in some games too. This could make him a potential bargain at £3.2m. Stoke have good upcoming fixtures after City next but I’m not sure how much I trust them as a consistent attacking force (they were very poor against Newcastle and Southampton).
Sanchez
The most expensive player in the game alongside Kane. We all know his potential from last season but takes up a valuable striker spot this season. despite mostly playing on the wing. For me, this makes him less attractive at the moment, especially when Lacazette is £1m cheaper. No doubt he will score points and will be one to monitor, but I feel interest will be quite low when almost all our front lines all contain Kane and Lukaku as a minimum.
October Plans for my teams
I am pretty happy with my teams currently so 1 or 2 transfers to freshen up the squad is all I’ll need barring injury/suspension. Last week I brought in Morata for Lukaku for the late kick off in one team due to united’s tough next few fixtures and Chelsea’s favourable next few. I will need to monitor his injury over the international break now. In hindsight, I should have left this and done the transfer after United play the early kick off next gameweek.
I have Mkytarian in one team and he will likely go for Sane after united play in the early kick off. Sterling may be added to one too. In a couple of week’s West Brom’s kind fixture run comes to an end and turn nasty. I have Dawson in a couple of teams playing in a 4-3-3. He will likely go for one of the Watford midfield duo in my ones to watch section, either just before West Brom play City, or the following week where Watford play after West Brom. Watford have 2 tough fixtures next so the timing is good.
I will also keep an eye on Matt Ritchie, as with Shelvey back his set pieces are shared more and I don’t see him scoring that many points. Again, the Watford duo will make ideal replacements should I want to change but will leave it a couple of weeks at least.
What’s the best formation?
A question I was asked recently is what is the best formation for this season. I used 3-4-3 at the start of the season and generally I feel this is best. With the plethora of premium strikers firing I think there is no doubt I’ll be sticking with 3 top strikers up front this year. I have noticed that there is a lot of value in defence and no real “must haves” in midfield. Salah has been arguably the best so far. With value wingbacks (Kolasinac, Davies etc.), value routes into United’s defence and some good <3.0m options I have switched a few of my teams to 4-3-3.
That being said I believe my formation will change over the season. With Hazard back, the city midfielders entering a good run of fixtures plus a couple of potential value midfielders emerging I may have changed my mind on this by next month’s article. As always, the key is to have a flexible squad so that you can easily change formations and adapt.
I hope you found that useful and good luck for October. You can also follow me on twitter
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