Here’s some thoughts on where to put the fantasy premier league captain armband this game week 7.  Its going to be an interesting day this week with no obvious captain choice.  You have to look positively at these games as the ones to make up ground

Background

Firstly my theory on captain picks is 3 fold

1.  Pick a captain from a top team home game against a poor team.  Away games are featuring more so Im not ruling these out at the minute.  IM calling these poor teams home or away as qualifying teams

2.  Pick a player who is a “flat track bully” ie someone who scores well against poor teams.  Rooney or Aguero are the best examples.  Not really enough fantasy premier league games for data to establish that this season though although i will be doing this analysis in the upcoming weeks.

3.  The exceptions, the “Ronaldo effect”  ie someone who can be picked against anyone home or away.  At the moment that player is only RVP

Here are the games and players that qualify this week:

Man City V Sunderland – Tevez Aguero

Chelsea v Norwich – Hazard

Liverpool v Stoke – Suarez

Spurs v Villa – Bale Defoe

Other – RVP

Analysis

1.  Tevez

Will he play?

Who knows.  Was benched and didnt play in the week.  was that resting or benching for Dzeko who’s in good form.  Only Mancini knows.  However Sky sports fantasy football managers will be able to find out as its the early game.  Mancini tends to bring people on a sub late on to compound the risk

Hows his  points record so far against qualifying teams?

he’s delivered.  heres the qualifying games in my mind

1.  Saints home 6 points

2.  QPR home 15 points

Whats his underlying shoot stats like overall

reasonably good considering a tricky start.  Shoots to much outside the box but a quite good on target %.  Hasnt created chances like you would expect

How consistent is his underlying shooting stats?

Not that consistent.  Prefers the easier home games.  Was disapointing in the away game to Fulham where cuty dominated

Anything else?

No.

Whats the opposition (Sunderland) like defensively

Theyve been poor even with the 2 clean sheets.  at the moment due to injuries Titus Bramble is in the side and they have an attacking midfielder at RB plus a Spurs loanee at LB

What about if I dont have him now should I buy him.  I dont want to buy short term

Dont buy him.  if you want City Aguero is worth the extra in my mind

Is he a viable captain option

Yes, BUT only if he starts which is a big gamble

2.  Aguero

Cant do the full Q and A as he’s only played 1 game but was good against Fulham and does perform well at home against ordinary opposition.  will he start today thats the question.  has played 2 games since coming back from injury.  Does that mean hes fresh and match practice is a positive or does that mean that he should be eased back.  i suspect he will play but nothing with Mancini is guaranteed especially with 4 quality strikers at his disposal.

3.  Hazard

Will he play?

He only came on as sub in midweek so seems a certainty to start.

Hows his  points record so far against qualifying teams?

heres his record against qualifying teams:

1.  WIG H 10

2.  RDG H 11

3.  NEW H 13

4.  QPR A 3

5.  STK H 3

So a little inconsistent but has the potential to get a big haul

Whats his underlying shoot stats like overall

Not in the top 10 despite a very easy opening schedule

How consistent is his underlying shooting stats?

Has gone missing in 50% of the games.  In 2 of 3 easy home games has done well

Anything else?

Is my theory on Oscar taking his space going to slow him down? in 2 games hes started with him hes done absolutely nothing

Whats the opposition (Norwich) like defensively

This may sound bizarre when you consider that they have had two 5 goal  thumpings but surprisingly not too bad.  Especially so when you consider what a difficult set of games they have had.  They have just made a load of individual errors.  They certainly don’t have the gung ho attitude they did under Paul Lambert.  They certainly gave Spurs a hard time

What about if I dont have him now should I buy him.  I dont want to buy short term

I personally wouldn’t as the fixtures are too difficult.  he does give the odd alternate captain option though but not for me until fixtures get better.

Is he a viable captain option

Yes, but risky

4.  Bale

Will he play?

played in the mid week Europa game which was a little disturbing but you have to think with his importance to the side and his form that he will start

Hows his  points record so far against qualifying teams?

heres his record against qualifying teams:

1.  WBA H 2

2.  NOR H 1

3.  RDG A 11

4.  QPR H 8

Didn’t start well but has run in to form.

Whats his underlying shoot stats like overall

3rd overall in the midfielders.  has had an easy schedule though but has the potential to do it no matter what the opposition.

How consistent is his underlying shooting stats?

Was disappointing NEW A and NOR H but in the rest of the games has turned up stat wise.  Is 4th in chances created which gives another string to his bow.

Anything else?

Has strong shooting stats and creates lots of chances but still someone who probably wont score much more than 10 so a bit of a worry going in as captain even if consistent points scorer overall.  Spurs and Bale seem better away on the counter attack adding to his difficulty as a captain choice

Whats the opposition (Villa) like defensively

Not too bad.  Have had  a reasonable schedule to start but the underlying stats aren’t too bad even if the goals conceded and the

What about if I dont have him now should I buy him.  I dont want to buy short term

The fixtures arent great and as above I have reservations as a captain but showing signs that he is looking like he maybe fixture proof.  If i didnt have him I probably wouldnt buy him unless he shows he can be a reliable captain

Is he a viable captain option

Yes, reservations are Spurs at home and Bale not being a flat track bully

5.  Defoe

Will he play?

apparently adebayor maybe fit but impossible to think he will be left out in current form

Hows his  points record so far against qualifying teams?

heres his record against qualifying teams:

1.  WBA H 2

2.  NOR H 5

3.  RDG A 9

4.  QPR H 8

he’s always had a reputation as a flat track bully and has been consistent against lower ranked teams

Whats his underlying shoot stats like overall

2nd overall for strikers.  Has had an easy schedule though

How consistent is his underlying shooting stats?

very consistent.  Didn’t shoot much against Man U but apart from that good stats.  Has a tendency to shoot a little too much outside the box in home games where the opposition sits deep is the only concern

Anything else?

As above, has a tendency to shoot a little too much outside the box in home games where the opposition sits deep is the only concern.  probably better away

Whats the opposition (Villa) like defensively

Not too bad.  Have had  a reasonable schedule to start but the underlying stats aren’t too bad even if the goals conceded and the

What about if I dont have him now should I buy him.  I dont want to buy short term

The fixtures aren’t great but is great value and looks to offer a captain option as an alternative to the Manchester teams.  If i had no other spurs coverage I would be tempted

Is he a viable captain option

Yes, only reservation is Spurs at home although  was very good against QPR.

6. Suarez

Will he play?

Definitely.  Was a sub in the week if you needed any more comfort.

Hows his  points record so far against qualifying teams?

Amazingly has only ad 1 qualifying game against Norwich and we all know what happened then.

Whats his underlying shoot stats like overall

1st overall for strikers and thats with one of the hardest schedules

How consistent is his underlying shooting stats?

very consistent. very consistent.  always turns up shooting stats wise and a good percentage in the box.  His on target % is abysmal though.

Anything else?

CAN HE PUT IT IN THE NET?  the only question is can he convert shots to goals

Whats the opposition (Stoke) like defensively

Very good 2 clean sheets and 5 goals conceded.  Underlying stats are very good.  We all saw what they did to Chelsea.

What about if I dont have him now should I buy him.  I dont want to buy short term

The fixtures are good.  It all depends on whether you think he can put it in the net.

Is he a viable captain option

Yes, only reservation is the Stoke defence.

7.  RVP

Will he play?

Not an easy game so I cant see him being rested.

Hows his home points record so far?

In 4 games started home or away hes produced 9 15 6 and 5  points.    Takes pens and shares set pieces

Whats his underlying shoot stats like overall

In the top 10 but not as dominant as last year.

How consistent is his underlying shooting stats?

Not that consistent.  In the 3 games he started, Fulham it was 1 shot 1 goal, Southampton he  absolutely ran riot and probably had the best stats of the season.   Liverpool wasnt impressive underlying stats wise and neither was Spurs.

Anything else?

Can Utd give him the service.  After Arteta and Song producing strong chances created numbers last year for him, will Utds wing based style work.  If  Scholes doesnt start in the midfield they seem to lack direction.

Whats the opposition (Newcastle) like defensively

Fairly reasonable especially at home.

What about if I dont have him now should I buy him.  I dont want to buy short term

The jurys out.  I have to admit if I didn’t have him I probably wouldn’t rush to buy now.  Fixtures are very difficult.

Is he a viable captain option 

As long as he starts he’s always an option on the basis of pure class.  I think he will start today

Who’s best then?

1.  Defoe

2.  Suarez

3.  Hazard

4.  Bale

5.  Aguero

6.  RVP

7.  Tevez

Good luck with your choices today

 

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