A few thoughts on Harry Kane and Double Gameweek 22

After a bit of reflection I thought I would jot down a few more thoughts on Harry Kane and double gameweek 22.  Spurs supporter Joseph Crilley has also added some thoughts of his own.

A few thoughts on Harry Kane and Double Gameweek 22

I did cover this subject very briefly in my early thoughts on the FFGeek team  but I thought it was worth updating these after a bit of time for reflection




Lets start with Harry Kane

Harry Kane is the most expensive player in the game.  As a standalone player I struggle to believe he is currently returning at a rate to justify that price.

I’ve mentioned an article a few weeks ago I did with a very crude assessment of rating players and their value for money

Kane came out of that very poorly, unsurprisingly.  However the methodology favours cheaper players and if applied strictly would leave you with £6m in the bank.  You would then supplement the team with expensive captain options.

An expensive players price can be significantly mitigated if they are one of 2 or 3 you use for your captain choice as they will effectively be returning double every 2nd or 3rd game.

Harry Kane has blanked in home fixtures to Burnley, Swansea, Bournemouth and C Palace.  He’s blanked away to Newcastle and Watford.  These are not captain material statistics.

Furthermore, Harry Kane on points per match is 9th equal.  Mustafi has a better points per match than Harry Kane.  Kane’s also only returned a goal or assist in 6 of his 14 matches.  That’s 43% which is inexcusable for the price. Salah is 11/15 or 73%.  In his favour, Kane can score big though  with 4 FPL 10 point plus hauls in those 14 games.

His underlying stats are no longer the saviour they once were.  Jesus, Aguero, Lacazette, Lukaku and Salah all have goal threat stats equal or better than Kane.  4 of his last 5 games have seen lower than acceptable goal threat stats.  Spurs are also stuttering as a team

An interesting example for me was Spurs goal v Watford at the weekend.  I don’t recall the build up but how is it Son HM got the tap in from Trippiers cross rather than Kane?

What you’re relying on now is history and who he is rather than stats this season.

Kane’s Fixtures

Here’s the fixtures from here to GW22

Stoke (H)
Brighton (H)
Man City (A)
Burnley (A)
Southampton (H)
GW21
Swansea (A) GW22
West Ham (H) GW22

My verdict

Despite the above I personally I find it difficult to take him out even with all of the above for the next 2 games.  Generally with non forced transfers I prefer a good game to exit with.  Away to Man City with a defensive Burnley after that looks like the fixture to sell and unless there was some dramatic change that would be my exit point.

However for me, even forgetting the issues I have with my team, I find it difficult to justify 2 transfers to get him out and back for GW22 over such a changing period of the season with rotation and injuries.  It would be 4 transfers if you wanted to do it for a midfielder.

Exploring the GW18 exit options

However taking him out at GW18 and returning for GW22 maybe an option  for those more aggressive FPL managers.

The problem with this is that having the extra Kane money is great if you’re going to distribute it round you team.  The problem with distributing it round will be then getting him back with just the 1 or 2 transfers.

A 3 week transfer for 1 player in the gamble that he will out score Kane is a less useful and not a long term way to use the cash.

Who would be the GW18-GW21 swap options?

I’m going to make a few assumptions first

That you have Morata, that Aguero and Jesus aren’t worth it for the rotation risk and that a midfield swap using 4 transfers isn’t feasible.

To me that leaves Lukaku with the following fixtures from GW18-GW21

West Brom (A)
Leicester (A)
Burnley (H)
Southampton (H)

And Lacazette with the following fixtures:

Newcastle (H)
Liverpool (H)
Crystal Palace (A)
West Brom (A)

Lacazette’s fixtures are definitely appealing.  However the risk is whether he will start every game and whether in those games he will get close to 90 minutes




Thoughts on DGW22

DGW22 sees Spurs and West Ham play twice.  Neither team plays in blank GW21.

Even with everything I said it’s hard to see anyone but Kane as captain in a scenario where Spurs have a double gameweek against Swansea and West Ham.

Spurs have a PL game on the 26th December and nothing after that to the double game week which is 7 days rest.  Therefore  I can see Kane and other selected players playing twice.  There’s also the bonus that after DGW22, the next game is the FA Cup home to Wimbledon which will afford rest for those players who did play twice.  The next PL game isn’t to the 13th

I will be doing everything I can to go into GW22 with 2 transfers

What other players would I consider?

For Spurs the most likely defender to play 2 games is Vertonghen who is too expensive with no attacking potential so a questionable long term acquisition.  It’s possible Alli or Eriksen could be a consideration but there would need to be some serious form changes for both.  The fixtures after GW22 don’t scream long term hold that’s for sure

Everton (H)
Southampton (A)
Man Utd (H)
Liverpool (A)
Arsenal (H)

As for West Ham.  A GK could be useful for save points.  Who that will be is questionable?  Adrian was outstanding against City when Hart was ineligible.  Given some of the comical goalkeeping we’ve seen from Hart he could conceivably lose his place.

A reasonably cheap mid maybe possible if form improves.  Lanzini £6.8m , Antonio £7.4m or Arnautovic £6.8m are possibilities.  They would need form improvement and some feel for lack of rotation to be considerations but it is grasping at straws.  DGWs are there to roll the dice however.

However  West Ham’s fixtures from GW19 are very good so at least if you do roll the dice then you have good fixtures while trying to get them out

GW19 Newcastle (H)
GW20 Bournemouth (A)
GW21 None
GW22 West Brom (H)
GW22 Spurs (A)
GW23 Huddersfield (A)
GW24 Bournemouth (H)
GW25 Crystal Palace (H)
GW26 Brighton (A)
GW27 Watford (H)

What about the other chips?

The free hit chip

For me there will be a big blank gameweek coming up due to FA Cup related postponements.  Te free hit will be invaluable for that week and I will hold it for that

The bench boost

Has to be held for a big DGW due to FA Cup postponements

Triple captain

GW22 really should be a triple captain opportunity although there should at least be 1 other chance to use it.  However Kane vs Swansea and West Ham would scream it under normal circumstances.  I’m certainly going in with an open mind.

What about if you still have a wildcard?

It would have to be used before the blank week in GW21.  If you’ve still got it it’s hard not to see it being used then.  You could use it for 4 bench players for DGW22 and then 1 extra for DGW22 itself.  Plus you can reshape your team to make sure as far as you can that everyone else plays in GW21.

A few words from Spurs supporter Joseph Crilley

On Kane

Thoughts have crossed my mind about removing Kane and bringing him back, especially looking at the fixture list. In 4 weeks, he faces Man City, Burnley and Southampton where as someone like Lacazette will have Newcastle, Liverpool, West Brom and Palace. So that temptation is definitely there but it’s always tough to pull the trigger on removing arguably the most lethal player in the game.

On DGW22

This double gameweek is certainly a curveball and will make for some intriguing decisions over the next few weeks. My initial thoughts are to not worry about this too much due to the blank week directly before.

However, the triple captain option is at the forefront of my mind. If Kane and Spurs begin to show form again then it looks a great opportunity. For me, it has everything I look for in a triple captain: two great fixtures and a top striker who is an assured starter. Kane will have a week off before the gameweek and then an FA cup match at home to Wimbledon after so it seems certain that he will start against both Swansea and West Ham.

I am very tempted because it’s not easy to picture a better scenario to use this chip. I may also look to bring in Lloris or Vertonghen as well who should be secure options in a defence that has hopefully improved by the time GW22 rolls around.

That’s it

I hope that gives you some food for thought.  DGW22 is still 6 gameweeks away so alot could change.  Please leave any additional thoughts or challenges in the comments column.  Rob Reid also touched on it in his November review article

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Comments

3 comments
  • Stephen T

    Good stuff gents! I agree with nearly everything Geek mentioned leading up to keeping Kane in the starting XI. At 12.8 I couldn’t justify his failures at captain any longer. Why? Because every fixture, his name was near the top of the captaincy based more on what he had done the last few years and his explosiveness, rather than his poor (albeit double digit returns) this season. Furthermore, having Kane fail in 4 out of 5 fixtures I captained him in during the first 8 weeks left a bad taste in my mouth.

    Looking at how I wanted to plan, the decision was made to move Kane and disperse his price tag over the midfield. Right or wrong? Don’t know, but I do like how my 5-man midfield is coming together, even if I am risking losing big points with just a single forward up front in Alvaro Morata.

    As for DGW22, right now without seeing further form, I am planning on banking a FT and bringing Kane in for the swa/WHM fixtures and potentially slapping the TC chip on him. Yet it reminds of doing that last year with Aguero, who didn’t really return the sort of numbers fantasy managers were looking for. It will all depend, but it’s worth planning for at this point.

    Reply

  • Godplayer

    I’m willing to keep Kane in the team despite his underlying stats simply because when he scores, he scores big. With the kind of ownership he enjoys, it’s a huge risk to sell him off at this point. Besides, I have had him since the beginning, so selling him only to buy him back will only end up wasting extra money.
    If I do sell him at all, it’ll be once and for good until he returns to form. There’s no point keeping 12.8m or so ITB without distributing it in your defense and midfield.

    Reply

  • Cesspool

    I question whether or the use of the triple captain ship in game week 22 is the right thing to do. The last few seasons I have saved my TC Chip until game week 38, when you place it on a high-scoring player who has still something to play for and is playing against a team that does not. In the last two seasons Kane and Giroud both came up huge in GW38 with the TC armband. Also, if there is more than one DGW late in the season, you can use it effectively as those did on Sanchez last year. Remember last year? Everyone jumped on Aguero early and he brought home only 27 points. I can see that happening here with an out of form Kane.

    Reply

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