Here’s an article on 4 attacking players who are having unexpected fantasy premier league seasons and their prospects going forward
4 players who are having unexpected fantasy premier league seasons and their future prospects
This article was written before the Wolves v Leicester match in GW26
Stats are from the free site understat
Jamie Vardy is the top FPL point scoring forward and also top of the points per match (ignoring 1 match Sammatta) for forwards. His points per match is 6.6 and his points per 90 minutes played is 6.82. That puts into the shade a PP90 of 5.74 in 18/19 and 5.07 in 17/18.
However we’ve now seen the disturbing site of 5 goals without a game and only 1 assist in there as a return. Sure there was Chelsea and Liverpool in that series but there was also Southampton, Burnley and West Ham.
Interestingly his xG of last season was actually better it’s just that this season he can’t miss anything and has outperformed his expected goals by 31%. Last season he undershot them, albeit by a small margin. So were not seeing a new and improved underlying stats Jamie Vardy from last season just one that finishes better. The good news is that his history is actually overwhelmingly positive in outperforming expected goals although overall by 11% rather than 31%. The positive though is he did previously match that figure in 17/18 and 16/17.
Rodgers would say the improvement is down to Vardy being more of a width of the penalty box energy conserving striker rather than the all action channel running presser of the past. That allows him to focus principally on finishing.
Leicester have Man City in GW27 but Norwich, Villa, Watford and Brighton after that he’s at least a hold before those games even if he performs at the current expected goals level without the over performance.
Regular readers may know I am a Danny Ings fan and started him in GW1 to much ridicule from every man and his dog.
This season his points per 90 minutes played is 6.76 compared to last season of 4.90.
So what’s changed? His PP90 last season was pretty good anyway for his price he just never played 90 minutes. Now his PP90 is outstanding.
However like Vardy we are seeing the main reason for the improvement is that this season he can’t miss last season whereas last season he couldn’t finish at all. His his non penalty xG has improved as has his shooting volumes but not massively. His shot map though definitely shows some closer to goal focus .
What could be the reason? It is difficult to say but being a consistent starter and the ability to stay fit has surely helped.
Again I would say that the underlying numbers even without the lethal finishing make him good value and the fixtures next of Villa, West Ham, Newcastle and Norwich make him a hold or buy.
Only Vardy, Aguero, Rashford and Aubameyang have better points per match for strikers than Abraham’s 5.4 and they’re all much more expensive.
It’s difficult to assess how a player will perform after coming up from the Championship and certainly after Chelsea lost 0-4 to Man Utd and Abraham was then a sub in GW2 there was no reason to forsee the 7 goals that came in the next 3 games. After that he’s been pretty consistent if not spectacular.
At the moment the signs are good. His underlying stats including his xG are good, as is his season and recent shooting volumes. After Spurs are out of the way in GW27 he has a pretty fantastic run of fixtures all the way to GW36.
I imagine he will be rested in the FA Cup but still the effect on a body unused to the premier league could be a risk.
It’s a bit hard to say what a season when he’s only started 14 games (already equaling the number of last seasons starts) but when he’s been on the pitch he’s been nothing short of sensational. His Points per 90 minutes played is 8. That’s just ridiculous.
If Pep suddenly came out and said Mahrez is going to play 90 minutes in every game to the end of the season there would be a stampede of FPL managers to get him into the team.
In fact that’s the problem. The uncertainty of Pep. Add that to a blank in GW28 with Leicester before that and he doesn’t seem that great a short term prospect although a longer term Sterling injury would help his gametime prospects.
His underlying stats are nothing short of wow. It’s just gametime and the short term fixtures that are a hindrance.
There has been some speculation that Chelsea v Man City could be brought forward to GW29 to avoid City having the potential of 3 postponed games due to domestic cup clashes. That would certainly bring him into play as an immediate option.
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