Just to recap on GK strategy.  Skip over if you’ve read this before

There are 2 schools of thought here. The first is to go with an elite keeper and either a cheap playing reserve or even gamble on a cheaper non playing reserve. The second is to rotate home and away with the 2 cheapest playing keepers.

This year the gap between the 2 has lessened with their being value in GKs at the elite level. Additionally, the increased rotation of the elite club defenders means a GK is a way of getting coverage without the juicy easy home games seeing mass defensive rotation. Rotation of GKs in fantasy premier league games doesn’t happen that regularly and it’s mainly focused on the domestic cups.

As far as defenders are concerned, generally in fantasy premier league,  I start of with 3-4-3 but try and have a balanced squad in terms of spend.  This year the new bonus system is suggesting in the data so far  that if your team gets a clean sheet, then virtually every time  that occurs, 2 of the 4 defenders in that team will get some sort of bonus award.   GW2 saw a significant skewing towards CBs getting bonus awards.  I’ve never been a fan of paying premiums for attacking players and this shy’s away from it.  I generally believe in going for the cheapest defender but balanced with gametime security.  Now I’ll be looking towards CBs if the price differential isn’t significant.

I’ve provided the following stats to support the player choices and to guide you in your decisions just for defenders (not GKs).  Until we get about 5 games in I’ve kept last seasons  stats as a bench mark.  The commentary will cover performance ad bonus issues.

1.  Clean sheets last year for the club rather than the player in order to assess the teams defensive strength at least last year.

2.  Time per point scored last year.  This is how many minutes it takes for a Barclays fantasy premier league point to be scored over the course of last season.  The lower the better obviously

3.  Rotation risk.  High, medium or low.  High is the greatest risk of rotation.

4.  Fixture ease ranking:  The link is at the bottom of the article but essentially I’ve ranked all the teams by the ease of the next 6 fixtures.  The team with the best ranking ie 1 will have the easiest next fixtures of any of the fantasy premier league teams over the next 6 games.

Elite Team GKs

Mignolet (£5.6m) BUY

No brainer for me.  2 clean sheets and a penalty save so far. Only 1 of 3 teams with a 100% clean sheet record.     The underlying stats haven’t been as compelling and this acts as just a bit of a warning for those thinking of doubling up on Liverpool defensive assets.  The case for the elite keepers is compelling this year.  Add in a non playing GK and for £9.6m last year there were 16 clean sheets for Liverpool which is pretty good going considering this year the cheapest rotation pair will be around £9.0m for 2  keepers of teams for far less quality.  Mignolet has no serious competition and apart from any injury should play every fantasy premier league game.

 De Gea (£6.0m) BUY

ok Chelsea weren’t looking to win the game but the Utd defence impressed me.  13 clean sheets last year and 6th ranking in goals conceded.  The underlying stats at the moment are nothing to write home about but Moyes will ensure the team keep clean sheets.  De Gea solves the selection and rotation potential problem with the Utd defence.  Ferdy and Vidic are bound to be rotated due to age and injury worries.  Evra is £6.5m and there is reasonable competition for the RB slot.  De Gea cuts out that uncertainty.  He has Lindegaard as a back up, who is a good keeper, so a non playing reserve is more of a risk than Mignolet but so far so good.

Foster (£5.0m) SELL  

12 week foot injury.  Not sure on replacement.  Myhill should be the no 2 but here’s a quote from Clarke in Goal.com “”Boaz is injured. He got injured in training, he hurt his wrist,” he added. “He’s improving but young Luke went in and did okay.”  Personally I would stay away from Daniels and Myhill is £4.5m anyway so no point in getting him as there are far better options at that price

Elite team defenders

Clichy (£6.0m) HOLD

• City clean sheets last year 18.  Time per point scored last year:  21 mins .  Rotation risk: Medium.   fixture ease ranking: 9th Bonus points to date 0

Don’t knee jerk and sell a City defender until after the Hull home game please.   Surely there’s a clean sheet there.  After that the City fixtures get a little tougher and you saw the effect without Kompany at Cardiff.  To be honest I knew there was an issue without Kompany from last year but even with that I was shocked with the inept defending that transpired.   However, that doesn’t take away from the fact that selling before a Hull home game is madness.  Clichy is the most secure gametime.   Interestingly Kompany has dropped in price to £6.4m on total transfers out  of 95k and 30k this gameweek.  His ownership is now 6.3% so once he returns he starts to look like  good value and with the bonus points system and him being a quality CB you have to believe he should be well rewarded.  At the moment I have no City defender and will probably leave it until Kompany does return depending on performances

Koscielny(£5.4m) HOLD

• Arsenal clean sheets last year 14.  Time per point scored last year:  19 mins .  Rotation risk: Medium.   fixture ease ranking: 5th  Bonus 0

No clean sheets and 4 goals conceded in 2 games isn’t great.  The underlying sats aren’t too bad though but too many good chances given.  Personally I still have faith in the 14 clean sheet Arsenal defence of last year and wouldn’t rush to sell with a good set of fixtures coming up.  Arteta is a screening midfielder loss but I don’t think it has been crucial to the clean sheets.  Koscielny was on the bench last night but fit apparently.  Home to Spurs this week might not be the best time to buy but away to Sunderland in GW4 (Arsenal had the most away clean sheets last year with 9) or home to Stoke in GW5 will be.  Price has helpfully dropped to £5.4m

Dawson (£5.0m) HOLD

• Spurs clean sheets last year 9.  Time per point scored last year:  28 mins .  Rotation risk: Medium.   fixture ease ranking: 6 Bonus points 1

2 games 2 clean sheets.  Spurs have shown the defensive improvement in clean sheets this season that their underlying stats from last year hinted.  Good fixtures continue.  The bonus point system at the moment seems to favour Vertonghen and Walker.  They’re considerably more expensive than Dawson though at £7.0m and £6.0m respectively.  If you don’t have him I would buy GW4 home to Norwich not GW3 away to Arsenal.  Some fantasy premier league managers think that new CB Chiriches will take Dawsons place.  Personally I don’t think that a 23 year old who has played all his football in Romania and hasn’t played in the Champions league proper will displace the club captain after Spurs’ successful defensive start

K Toure (£5.0m) HOLD TO ASSESS INJURY

• Liverpool clean sheets last year 16.  Time per point scored last year:  n/a .  Rotation risk: Medium.   fixture ease ranking: 3

Injury doesn’t look good and looks like a sell but I’d wait until more news.  Skrtel is presumably the replacement depending on Rodgers view of him.  Coates is injured so don’t rule out £4.4m Martin Kelly.  Home to Man Utd this week so no need to rush.

This is what Rodgers said in the Daily Mail “Kolo Toure has overstretched his groin, so we need to assess that, which doesn’t look so good to be honest.”

Coleman (£5.3m)HOLD

• Everton clean sheets last year 11.  Time per point scored last year:  n/a as fpl mid .  Rotation risk: low.   fixture ease ranking: 13 Bonus points 3

A goal and assist in GW1.  A clean sheet in GW2  and now a massive defensive bandwagon with his price at £5.3m.  Everton also have the best underlying defensive stats of any team although it has been against Norwich and WBA.  At £5.0m he was good value.   At this price I’m not totally convinced he’s a buy.  Away to Cardiff will be an interesting defensive test.   Also interesting that Jagielka and Baines got the bonus points against WBA and I wonder if that sets a pattern.   Definitely wouldn’t sell but I’m holding off at this price.  Distin is still available at £5.0m but with Alcaraz expected back I’m a little nervous.

Budget defenders

Collins (£4.5m) BUY

• West Ham clean sheets last year 11.  Time per point scored last year:  28 mins .  Rotation risk: medium.   fixture ease ranking: 16  bonus 1

Good £4.5m  with a very defensive manager.  2 clean sheets from 2 games.  Bonus points haven’t flowed to West Ham yet though.  Fixtures get trickier but with a home rotation West Ham are a good bet.  Underlying stats have been ok and worthy of £4.5m.

M Turner (£4.5m)HOLD

• Norwich clean sheets last year 10.  Time per point scored last year:  26 mins .  Rotation risk: medium.   fixture ease ranking: 11 Bonus 0

Have been really poor this season defensively in actual and underlying terms.  Living off the 8 clean sheets at home last year but its a hold at best at least until after the Saints home game.  Has game time risk as Bassong coming back in my mind will replace Whittaker as Martin was a RB last year not a CB but not guaranteed

Clyne (£4.5m)BUY

• Southampton clean sheets last year 7.  Time per point scored last year:  34 mins .  Rotation risk: medium.   fixture ease ranking: 19 bonus 0

I’m a big believer in the Saints defence and although only 1 clean sheet out of 2 the underlying stats are very good although have to be looked in the context of games against WBA and Sunderland.  The problem is who to pick.  Shaw is up to £4.7m and Fonte has competition from Yoshida and Hooiveld.  Clyne didn’t start but has to be the number 1 RB surely although all the uncertainty has made me regrade his rotation risk to meduium.  Lovren seems to be the bonus darling but £5.0m is a bit steep.  Fixtures are very difficult but as a home rotation they’re good.

Celustka  (£4.5m) BUY

•  Sunderland clean sheets last year 11.  Time per point scored last year:  n/a .  Rotation risk: low.   fixture ease ranking: 17 bonus 0

Sunderland had a good clean sheet record last year despite appalling underlying stats but I would argue that this was mainly due to the outstanding GK Mignolet.  However this year with new signings they’ve had quite good underlying stats so far and maybe worth a punt for home games only.

Chester (£4.0m) HOLD   B Turner (£4.0m)HOLD  Baker (£4.0m) HOLD Whittaker (£4.1m) HOLD

Chester and Turner look good holds at this price.  The Villa defence has performed very well so far and Baker is a bargain if he comes back in to the squad in front of Okore although that is far from certain.  I would hold Whittaker until the casualty from Bassong coming back into the team is cleared up.  It’s likely to be him or Turner.

That’s it

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