Here’s the “ones to watch” for GKs and defenders on the Barclays fantasy premier league format for GW5. This will give the best GKs and defensive players at a variety of price ranges. I’ll also be categorising players as BUY HOLD or SELL from last weeks article.
Here’s the supporting stats:
1. Minutes per point. This shows how long it takes for a player to earn a fantasy premier league point. The lower the better obviously
2. Clean sheets to date for the team he’s playing in
3. The fixture ease ranking. This is the ranking of all teams to see who has the easiest fixtures over the next 6 games. The team with the best ranking ie 1 will have the easiest next fixtures of any of the fantasy premier league teams over the next 6 games.
4. For defenders I’ve added in rotation risk. High medium or low
5. For defenders, I’ve also put the bonus points to date in so we ca see how they’re faring with the new bonus system
6. I’ve also ranked the defenders
Just to recap on GK strategy. Skip over if you’ve read this before
There are 2 schools of thought here. The first is to go with an elite keeper and either a cheap playing reserve or even gamble on a cheaper non playing reserve. The second is to rotate home and away with the 2 cheapest playing keepers.
This year the gap between the 2 has lessened with their being value in GKs at the elite level. Additionally, the increased rotation of the elite club defenders means a GK is a way of getting coverage without the juicy easy home games seeing mass defensive rotation. Rotation of GKs in fantasy premier league games doesn’t happen that regularly and it’s mainly focused on the domestic cups.
As far as defenders are concerned, generally in fantasy premier league, I start of with 3-4-3 but try and have a balanced squad in terms of spend. This year the new bonus system is suggesting in the data so far that if your team gets a clean sheet, then virtually every time that occurs, 2 of the 4 defenders in that team will get some sort of bonus award. GW2 saw a significant skewing towards CBs getting bonus awards. I’ve never been a fan of paying premiums for attacking players and this shy’s away from it. I generally believe in going for the cheapest defender but balanced with gametime security. Now I’ll be looking towards CBs if the price differential isn’t significant.
Mignolet (£5.7m) BUY
- Minutes per point: 11.25 Team clean sheets: 3 fixture ease rank: 3
3 clean sheets from 4 games and and by 8 points the highest scoring GK. Agger and Enrique are more expensive. Wisdom is short term and the other CB position is yet to be nailed down so Mignolet continues to be good cover for the Liverpool defence
De Gea (£6.0m) HOLD
- Minutes per point: 18.9 Team clean sheets: 9 fixture ease rank: 5
I wouldnt buy him this week as theyre away to City but he does give relative certainty to the United defence where there isn’t any anywhere else without having to pay a premium for doing so. More of a risk having a non playing GK as a reserve than Mignolet but I think that rotation will probably happen in the domestic cups
1. Koscielny(£5.4m) BUY
- Minutes per point: 41.2 mins . Team clean sheets: 1 Rotation risk: Low. fixture ease ranking: 1st Bonus points to date 0
I’m still keeping the faith in the Arsenal defence despite the only 1 clean sheet so far. Underlying stats could also be better but if there’s ever a chance to get a clean sheet Stoke at home has got to be an excellent place to start.
2. Dawson (£5.1m) BUY
- Minutes per point: 17.1 . Team clean sheets: 3 Rotation risk: medium. fixture ease ranking: 8th Bonus points to date 1
Not really liked by the bonus point system but you cant deny his value for 3 clean sheets out of 4. We will soon see if new CB Chiriches takes his place. Personally I’m banking on him holding his place over the 23 year old Romanian who has yet to play club football outside his country.
3. A Cole (£6.5m) BUY
- Minutes per point: 16.9 mins . Team clean sheets: 2 Rotation risk: medium fixture ease ranking: 12 Bonus points to date 4
Only 2 clean sheets but underlying stats have been good and really juicy home fixture next to Fulham. Cole is the less rotatable Chelsea defender with only Bertrand as cover who appears completely out of favour. Ivanovic may have the best attacking potential of the Chelsea defenders but potentially does have cover in Azpilicueta. With 4 bonus points Cole seems to be better suited to the new bonus system than Ivanovic with 2 which came when he scored.
4. Coleman (£5.4m)HOLD
- Minutes per point: 11.3 mins . Team clean sheets: 3 Rotation risk: low. fixture ease ranking: 11 Bonus points to date 4
Still the the highest scoring defender in fantasy premier league so far. Another, albeit fortuitous, clean sheet at the weekend against Chelsea. interesting though he again was ignored with the bonus points. I’m now looking at Distin. He’s a CB and got the 2 bonus points in the last game after getting 3 in the game prior to that. Distin is still available at £5.0m but with Alcaraz expected back there is some gametime risk but again I’m backing Distin to hold his place given the results to date. Distin is a BUY for me
5. Clyne (£4.4m)BUY
- Minutes per point: 15 mins . Team clean sheets: 2 Rotation risk: medium fixture ease ranking: 14 Bonus points to date 2
Hopefully everyone took my advice and held on to Clyne as he returned to the team just as inexplicably as he went out. The Saints defence has had 2 clean sheets as well as having good underlying stats and are really a great budget bet along with West Ham. Clyne and Fonte are the best bets at the moment for me with Shaw having gone up in price and looking a little injury prone. Away to Liverpool may seem a strange place to recommend a BUY but this is a home rotation play and Saints have Palace Swansea and Fulham in the next 3
6. Collins (£4.6m) BUY
- Minutes per point: 18 mins . Team clean sheets: 3 Rotation risk: medium. fixture ease ranking: 15 Bonus points to date 1
Home to Everton and the start of more difficult fixtures especially if Lukaku lines up. However you cant argue with their defensive resolve especially at home. The bonus system really doesn’t like him though with only 1 bonus point from 3 clean sheet. West Ham are top 3rd of teams in the underlying stats
7. Wilson (£4.5m) BUY
- Minutes per point: 18 mins . Team clean sheets: 2 Rotation risk: medium fixture ease ranking: 5 Bonus points to date 4
Norwich, WBA and Southampton at home in the next 3 for this fantasy premier league classified defender playing as a midfielder. Best value for Stoke and the defence really seems to have rectified itself after a rocky start although the underlying stats still have some work to do to rectify themselves overall. Away to Arsenal means no need to buy now but get yourself set for Norwich at home
8. M Turner (£4.5m) HOLD
- Minutes per point: 40 mins . Team clean sheets: 1 Rotation risk: medium fixture ease ranking: 17 Bonus points to date 0
Only 1 clean sheet and pretty ordinary underlying stats and very difficult fixtures to come so why hold? The next 3 home games still involve Villa and Cardiff either side of Chelsea so there is still clean sheet potential there. Turner provides reasonable value as well as a goal threat and is one of the better £4.5m home rotation players.
9. Wisdom (£4.4m) BUY
- Minutes per point: 81 mins . Team clean sheets: 3 Rotation risk: high fixture ease ranking: 3 Bonus points to date 0
Only a short term option as Johnson could be back for GW8 but there’s some real clean sheet potential in among the fixtures up to then and if you’ve just used your wildcard and have no pressing team issues this should be a cheap short term profitable punt.
Chester (£4.0m) HOLD B Turner (£4.0m)HOLD Baker (£3.9m) HOLD Whittaker (£4.2m) HOLD
If you’re looking for fillers the above are the best bets. the rise of importance of defence does quuestion whether you should invest more money which is where I am at the moment. Chester and Turner look good holds at this price. Baker is good value if he comes back into the squad if he comes back in to the squad in front of Clark although that is far from certain.
You maybe wondering why I haven’t got any Utd or City or Liverpool (Wisdom apart) defenders in the above. Well as far as United and Liverpool are concerned at the moment if you want cover De Gea and Mignolet are the best options given rotation and price of the alternatives. It will be interesting to see how long Fabio lasts for United. As far as City is concerned Kompany will become a buy after next weeks Manchester Derby match
That’s it. On to midfielders next
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