Just to recap on GK strategy.  Skip over if you’ve read this before

There are 2 schools of thought here. The first is to go with an elite keeper and either a cheap playing reserve or even gamble on a cheaper non playing reserve. The second is to rotate home and away with the 2 cheapest playing keepers.

This year the gap between the 2 has lessened with their being value in GKs at the elite level. Additionally, the increased rotation of the elite club defenders means a GK is a way of getting coverage without the juicy easy home games seeing mass defensive rotation. Rotation of GKs in fantasy premier league games doesn’t happen that regularly and it’s mainly focused on the domestic cups.

As far as defenders are concerned, generally in fantasy premier league,  I start of with 3-4-3 but try and have a balanced squad in terms of spend.  This year the new bonus system is suggesting in the data so far  that if your team gets a clean sheet, then virtually every time  that occurs, 2 of the 4 defenders in that team will get some sort of bonus award.   GW2 saw a significant skewing towards CBs getting bonus awards which has continued.  I’ve never been a fan of paying premiums for attacking players and this shy’s away from it.  I generally believe in going for the cheapest defender but balanced with gametime security.  Now I’ll be looking towards CBs if the price differential isn’t significant.

GKs

Mignolet (£5.8m) HOLD

• Minutes per point:  15.4    Team clean sheets:  3    Team defence ranking:  6  fixture ease rank:  4

Its now 4 games in a row without a clean sheet but among the top 4 challenging teams he still is good value.  The defence is getting sloppy however and there’s 4 away games in 6 although there’s only 2 games where you think a clean sheet isn’t a possibility.   Given their defensive form at the moment I wouldn’t but  but I  the basics of fixtures are still good enough not to sell

Newcastle (A)
West Brom (H)
Arsenal (A)
Fulham (H)
Everton (A)
Hull City (A)

De Gea (£5.9m) HOLD

• Minutes per point:  28.6   Team clean sheets:  2    Team defence ranking:  12  fixture ease rank:  16

Nothing going for them at the moment, no clean sheets in the last 3 and giving away loads of good chances to the opposition.  However the next 3 games are such that there is no way you should be selling.  All 3 have clean sheet potential should the United defence play to their potential

Southampton (H)
Stoke City (H)
Fulham (A)
Arsenal (H)
Cardiff City (A)
Tottenham (A)

Boruc (£4.7m) BUY

• Minutes per point:  15.0   Team clean sheets:  5    Team defence ranking:  3  fixture ease rank:  18

Never mind being a cheap home rotation player he’s now ready as your home and away rotation keeper after 5 clean sheets out of 7.  A word of warning though as United Arsenal and Chelsea are  all away in the next 6 so we’ll get a real test of where the defence is.  Still a great value buy but more sensibly with a rotation partner. McGregor offers that option although not in GW8

Man Utd (A)
Fulham (H)
Stoke City (A)
Hull City (H)
Arsenal (A)
Chelsea (A

McGregor (£4.5) BUY

• Minutes per point:  16.6   Team clean sheets:  3    Team defence ranking:  10  fixture ease rank:  13

Apart from GW8 has good home and away rotation with Boruc and Hull have Crystal Palace and Sunderland at home in the next 6 to give potential for 2 home clean sheets within that 6.

Next 6 fixtures:

Everton (A)
Tottenham (A)
Sunderland (H)
Southampton (A)
Crystal Palace (H)
Liverpool (H)

Defenders

Tricky this week with a few difficult fixtures and injuries so I’ve offered alternatives within the team

1.  Ivanovic (£6.5m) BUY

• Minutes per point:  20.3 mins .  Team clean sheets:  3    Team defence ranking:  2  Rotation risk: medium   fixture ease ranking: 10   Bonus points to date 2

Terry is the better bonus and attacking points magnet but at the risk of gametime now the European and domestic cups are in full swing.  Ivanovic seems the most reliable in gametime terms which is why i would probably go for him although I can understand the Terry attraction.

Next 6 fixtures:

Cardiff City (H)
Man City (H)
Newcastle (A)
West Brom (H)
West Ham (A)
Southampton (H)

2.  Clyne (£4.4m)HOLD

• Minutes per point:  14.5 mins .  Team clean sheets:  5    Team defence ranking:  3  Rotation risk: low   fixture ease ranking: 18   Bonus points to date 4

The value version of the all conquering Southampton defence who have 5 clean sheets from 7 games.  Still has some bonus potential with 4 to date as well although nothing in the last 2 clean sheets.  Tricky fixture next away to United but then 3 with clean sheet potential which is why he’s a hold not a buy for this week.

Next 6 fixtures:

Man Utd (A)
Fulham (H)
Stoke City (A)
Hull City (H)
Arsenal (A)
Chelsea (A)

3.  Dawson (£5.1m) HOLD

•   Minutes per point:  21.7   Team clean sheets: 4    Team defence ranking:  1  Rotation risk: medium.   fixture ease ranking: 17th     Bonus points to date 2

The Spurs defence unravelled in spectacular fashion against a West Ham team that prior to that had not scored an away goal.  Although Dawson is the best value in the Spurs defence I would be a little wary of buying him this week just in case AVB has some reaction which sees Chiriches installed.  Especially as he didn’t cover himself in glory in the game and in particular with the Morrison goal.  The Spurs defence is an overall BUY still though with Walker being the next best bet in my mind
Next 6 fixtures:

Aston Villa (A)
Hull City (H)
Everton (A)
Newcastle (H)
Man City (A)
Man Utd (H)

4.  Distin (£5.0m) HOLD

• Minutes per point:  24.2 mins .  Team clean sheets:  3    Team defence ranking:  9  Rotation risk: medium.   fixture ease ranking: 7    Bonus points to date 5

7 goals in the last 3 games has seen their defensive ranking slip and they now look like the defensive team that we would expect from Martinez.  Distin also has the imminent return of Alcaraz as a possible threat.  However home to Hull is defeinitely not the time to sell and has to be one of the favoured fixtures for a clean sheet.  I would also add Coleman into the hold category as well

Next 6 fixtures:

Hull City (H)
Aston Villa (A)
Tottenham (H)
Crystal Palace (A)
Liverpool (H)
Stoke City (H)

5.  Kompany (£6.3m) HOLD (injured expected return GW10)

• Minutes per point:  31.6 mins .  Team clean sheets:  3    Team defence ranking:  5   Rotation risk: low  fixture ease ranking: 15     Bonus points to date 0

Another injury to test the patience.  Will miss to tricky away games and hopefully return for the Norwich home game which has good clean sheet potential.  When fit is one of the least rotatable defenders in the City team.  Nastasic at £5.5m would be my alternative acquisition although everyone has rotation potential

Next 6 fixtures:

West Ham (A)
Chelsea (A)
Norwich (H)
Sunderland (A)
Tottenham (H)
Swansea (H)

6   Mertesacker  (£5.5m)HOLD

•  Minutes per point:  21.6.  Team clean sheets:  1    Team defence ranking:  11 Rotation risk: low.   fixture ease ranking: 9th     Bonus points to date 4

The Arsenal defence has been a big disappointment with only 1 clean sheet despite good fixtures.  However some aspects of the underlying stats have been good they just seem to give away enough good chances to concede.  However the next 2 fixtures are not time to sell.

Next 6 fixtures:

Norwich (H)
Crystal Palace (A)
Liverpool (H)
Man Utd (A)
Southampton (H)
Cardiff City (A)

7.  Wilson (£4.5m)  BUY 

• Minutes per point:  26.0 mins .  Team clean sheets:  2    Team defence ranking:  8  Rotation risk: medium   fixture ease ranking: 10    Bonus points to date 4

A few good home fixtures for a team with a defence that spasmodically performs and has the ability to get clean sheets at home.  the next 3 home games certainly have potential.  A bit of a watchout though was his 58 minute substitution last week although that was his first.

Next 6 fixtures:

West Brom (H)
Man Utd (A)
Southampton (H)
Swansea (A)
Sunderland (H)
Everton (A)

Davies (£5.0m)  HOLD (injured could be back GW8) 

• Minutes per point: 18.0  Team clean sheets:  2    Team defence ranking:  15    Rotation risk: medium   fixture ease ranking: 2    Bonus points to date 7

UPDATE 16/10 – Could be back for GW8 now.  Williams looks unlikelyWas only a fixture play and missing 2 of the best fixtures I probably wouldn’t hold on.  If Williams is fit I would go for him otherwise i would go for Chico

Next 6 fixtures

Sunderland (H)
West Ham (H)
Cardiff City (A)
Stoke City (H)
Fulham (A)
Man City (A)

Collins (£4.6m) SELL 

Lost his place and now is the time to sell home to Man City

Cole (£6.5m)  SELL (injury with no return date)

Terry or Ivanovic would be my replacements with Cardiff at home next week

Budget

B Turner (£4.0m)HOLD  Baker (£3.9m) SELL Faye (£3.9m)HOLD

If you’re looking for fillers the above are the best bets.  The rise of importance of defence does question whether you should invest more money which is where I am at the moment. Turner look good holds at this price.   Faye is a short term but while Hull’s Chester is injured until GW10

You maybe wondering why I haven’t got any Utd  or Liverpool defenders in the above.  At the moment if you want cover De Gea and Mignolet are the best options given rotation and price of the alternatives.

That’s it.  On to midfielders next

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