Here’s an article where I assemble a team of 15 players by trying to identify the players who are proving to be the best value for money
fantasy premier league – some of the best value FPL players in each position
Note since I wrote this Mendy has had knee surgery and is out with no return date
Whether your’e a fantasy premier league manager or a punter involved in sports betting the search for value is one of the keys to success. You may have seen my previous articles where I’ve looked for value for money through expected goals data and value from projected points. Here I’ve looked for some of the best value players by comparing their points per match on the fantasy premier league site to give an estimate of value for money.
It’s a fairly simple calculation which does tend to favour the cheaper players and prejudices those with appearances as a substitute but it does provide an insight into evaluating a players return for his cost and assistance for your upcoming transfers. The players were filtered by minutes (minimum 400) and they also have to pretty much be first choice.
So firstly here is the schedule and then commentary on each position below:
Goalkeeper
One of the biggest debates in the FPL community is the goalkeeper position and whether you go for a premium set and forget goalkeeper or a cheap goalkeeper where the lack of clean sheets is compensated for with save and bonus points. Interestingly here we have players from both end of the spectrum.
It’s surprising to see Lloris at the top of the list given the criticism some of his goalkeeping has received. However in 8 starts he’s got 4 clean sheets made 30 saves and taken home 5 bonus points. He somehow has been able to get the premium goalkeeper points with the saves and bonus points expected from a cheaper GK
Only the hapless Fulham team has conceded more goals than Burnleys 25 and no team has faced more shots per game than Burnley. Despite that Joe Hart has still managed to sneak in 3 clean sheets and has made more saves than any other GK. He’s therefore got more FPL points than more fancied GKs in his price range of Wolves Patricio and Brighton’s Ryan
Defence
I don’t think many people would have expected that 3 of the top 4 most expensive defenders would also be the best value but that’s the case with Alonso, Robertson and Mendy. As I said above since I wrote this Mendy has had knee surgery and is out with no return date as yet.
I’ve consistently said that the best defences in the premier league are Man City Liverpool and Chelsea and that’s evidenced by the fact that these 3 clubs head the clean sheets table as well as the least goals conceded table. However what these 3 players also add is attacking returns and bonus points. Alonso and Mendy head the assist table for defenders with 7 and 6 respectively. Robertson only has 3 assists but makes up for it by being 2nd to Alonso’s 14 bonus points for defenders with 12.
Alexander Arnold is also no surprise to the list given he costs £5.0m and plays for Liverpool. He may only be the 9th top FPL points scoring defender but his price ensures he still looks value for money.
Lastly it’s a bit of a surprise to see Keane of Everton in the list. He may have only 3 clean sheets in his 10 starts but a goal and 2 assists plus 9 bonus points have seen him sneak into the top 5.
Midfielders
The diminutive Scotsman Fraser heads the value for money midfielder list courtesy of his 3 goals, 6 assists and 10 bonus points in his 12 starts. A word of warning though as Bournemouth have had a good run of fixtures to start the season which is about to get trickier
Next we have the Brazilian Evertonian who’s currently playing in the CF position for Everton. He seems to have got over his inability to put the ball in the back of the net which plagued him last season and he’s now ahead of his expected goals number in marked contrast to last season.
Man Utd’s Martial has now taken his favoured LW position from Sanchez and is in stunning form. 6 goals and an assist in his last 5 games and returns in each of them ensures that he makes the list.
Lamela has been a revelation stepping into the Spurs midfield when Alli and Eriksen have been injured. His place in this list is made all the more impressive by the fact that he’s started 4 games and has 4 as sub negatively distorting the calculation. A word of warning though in that it’s difficult to see how the Spurs midfield will shake up when Alli and Eriksen are both fit.
Lastly it’s the recent Cardiff CF Paterson who’s sneaked into the list with 3 goals in his last 3 games.
Forwards
No surprise to see new England call up Calum Wilson of Bournemouth heading the list. He’s been a revelation with 6 goals and 7 assists in his 12 starts. Only Sergio Aguero has more FPL points as a forward.
With 2 goals and an assist and 18 FPL points in his last 2 games the Wolves striker Jimenez suddenly shows what good value for money he is.
Lastly there’s Calum Wilson’s strike partner, albeit a currently injured one, in Josh King. His penalty duties have helped him to 4 goals and an assist in his 9 starts. He’s also pretty handy with bonus points having collected 8 so far. Only 4 forwards have more bonus points despite injury curtailing his starts.
What are the deficiencies of this method?
The mathematicians of you will have noticed that the total team value is only £91m meaning most managers will have around £11m in the bank which is hardly an efficient way of allocating resources.
So we’ve taken out the 2 lowest rated midfield and forward options and added in 2 premium players as captain options in Hazard and Aguero to use up the cash. Salah unfortunately broke the bank but could be accommodated with cheaper bench warmers in the defence and midfield positions.
Here’s how the team looks. It’s total value is around £102.8m
Hope you found it interesting and a help for your upcoming transfers
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