fantasy premier league – 6 players who could hurt your rank if you don’t own them


Alot of attention is given to differentials in fantasy premier league in order to speed up the overall ranking.  However, here’s an article where I look at 6 players or category of players that you should consider owning, if you don’t already, as a way of avoiding large ranking drops should they score well. 

fantasy premier league – 6 players who could hurt your rank if you don’t own them

Background




There’s a bit of preamble which once you see the 6 players you’ll wonder why I needed it but I do think it’s important.

One of the things I try and do with my team is avoid ranking drops as much as look to climb the rankings.

The genesis of this was the season 13/14 when Yaya Toure scored 20 goals having never scored more than 6 in the premier league and effectively playing as a CDM.  In that season he was a hugely owned asset.  My view at the time was a guy who spent most of his time in the centre circle could never keep up his scoring rate and I decided early on against transferring him in.  However I soon found out that whatever I did to my team it never moved forwards as YYT just kept on scoring and the millions you owned him kept getting large dose’s of points.  Eventually I decided against my own judgement just to buy him and neutralise the situation.  From that point on I was able to advance my rank.

This made me theorise about a criteria for neutralising players who could be negatively rank adjusting.  Ownership is the most obvious criteria.  However in the FPL site it is difficult to use that stat as the season goes on there are so many dead teams and ownership doesn’t reflect those actively playing the game.

So as a proxy for serious managers I look at the top 10 FPL managers articles I do and the excellent free FPL discovery site that analyses the ownership of players in the top 10k overall rank.  It’s not perfect but it’s what I’ve settled on.  The top 10k stats are quite volatile early on in the season but by now have settled a bit.

If a player is owned by 70% of either category I’ll be looking for very good reasons not to own him rather than the other way round.

Some Caveats 

Now obviously the way to improve your rank in FPL is to pick the players who will score the most points. Unfortunately if I could do that with 100% accuracy I wouldn’t be writing now. I’d be on a balcony in the south of France over looking the sea sipping a beer with my betting winnings.  So having accepted there is no guaranteed player point prediction formula I’ve used this for as a rank protection method

My objective is soley overall rank.  If your objective is mini league based you may concern yourself more wth what your mini league rivals own.

This is only my way of doing things.  There are many ways to play FPL and the alternative FFGeek team articles show that you can use a player points prediction method and ignore what I’ve said.  I suspect it’s a more volatile way of playing and unless you have total belief in your system then you may well  spend a decent amount of time watching games behind the sofa.

When you see the list you’ll probably think it hardly needed a % criteria to pick out the most obvious players but I find it useful if I ever wobble on them through one of my over thinking phases

I’ve also said categories which in effect means defences.

It is only food for thought so disregard if you want.

Some disregards

At the moment were in a double gameweek so I’m disregarding players who I think have been bought in for that gameweek and will be sold.  Alli, Son and Arnautovic come to mind.

I’m also disregarding cheap rotation players such as Elliot as having minimal effect.

The 6 players or categories

 Man Utd defence

40% of the top 10k own DeGea, 32% own P Jones.  Total 72%

7/10 of the top 10 FPL managers own Jones.

Man Utd so far have 12 clean sheets in 22 games.  No team has more.  They have wobbled recently but adjusted with 2 clean sheets in the last 2 games.  Still some way off having their number 1 defensive lineup but with the fixtures ahead and a defensive manager they remain a decent buy.

£5.7m Jones is the most transferred in defender so far this gameweek.  Looking at the top points per match defenders Man Utd occupy 3 of the top 6 spots assuming some reasonable gametime criteria.

The light if you want to avoid them is in underlying stats Man Utd only rank 6th defensively.

Stoke (H)
Burnley (A)
Spurs (A)
Huddersfield (H)
Newcastle (A)
Chelsea (H)




Chelsea defence 

35% of the top 10k own Alonso, 11 % Christensen and 9% Courtois.  Total 55%

4 out of the top 10 FPL managers own Alonso, 3 own Christensen and 1 owns Azpilicueta.  Total = 80%

 Chelsea with Manchester City have 11 clean sheets 2nd equal behind Man Utd.  Chelsea are 2nd to Man City in underlying defensive stats

The value choice to cover the Chelsea clean sheets is Christensen at £5.6m and the attacking option is Alonso with 6 goals,  an assist and 10 clean sheets.  Alonso is also 2nd in points per match to Eric Bailly in fantasy premier league defenders

Leicester (H)
Brighton (A)
Bournemouth (H)
Watford (A)
West Brom (H)
Man Utd (A)

Otamendi

top 10k 73%.

10 top FPL managers 30%

I haven’t grouped £6.4m Defender Otamendi with the rest of the Man City defence as he seems to be performing out of his skin at the moment with only Ederson as GK and maybe Stones as cheaper coverage.

For defenders he’s 3rd in total points, 4th in points per match, 5th in clean sheets, 2nd in goals scored and top in bonus points so covering all bases to some extent.

Man City are 2nd in clean sheets and the best team defensively in underlying stats

Liverpool (A)
Newcastle (H)
West Brom (H)
Burnley (A)
Leicester (H)
Arsenal (A)

 Sterling

Top 10k 80%

10 top FPL managers 9/10

The £8.9m Man City midfielder is master of the midfield tap in.  Unbelievable what’s going on. His ability to sniff out when the ball will be in the 6 yard box is unreal.   14 goals and 7 assists in 16 starts and 4 sub appearances. Fantastic underlying stats if a little inconsistently delivered. Mind blowing.

Liverpool (A)
Newcastle (H)
West Brom (H)
Burnley (A)
Leicester (H)
Arsenal (A)

Salah

Top 10k 67%

10 top FPL managers 50%

The £10.1m Liverpool RW is lower ownership than he has been due to the injury for GW22 meaning that many FPL managers saw it as a short term trade for a DGW player.  Maybe not GW23 as they play Man City but by GW24 I imagine every man and his proverbial dog will own himagain.

The top points scorer in FPL and only Harry Kane has scored more goals.

Man City (H)
Swansea (A)
Huddersfield (A)
Spurs (H)
Southampton (A)
West Ham (H)

Kane

top 10k 75%

10 top FPL managers 100%

8 hat tricks in 2017 and more goals in a calendar year than any player in the premier league era.  His ability to score big is phenomenal.  Also a common captain favourite to double the points threat.

Everton (H)
Southampton (A)
Man Utd (H)
Liverpool (A)
Arsenal (H)
Crystal Palace (A)

 

 Everybody has these players.  How do I move up in the ranks?

These 6 players cost roughly £50m.  That’s still 9 players with rougly £54m left at an average of £6m each using value, fixtures and form as a basic criteria

I believe there will still be plenty of opportunities to advance in the rankings through the remaining 9 players and 50/50 captain picks.

I hope you found it useful to think about

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6 thoughts on “fantasy premier league – 6 players who could hurt your rank if you don’t own them”

  1. Good article Geek, thanks. Considering the WC ahead of GW23 with injuries and out of form players, one could easily build a squad around these 6 players. Currently own all but Kane and Otamendi, look at Stones as the cheaper differential. Not sure if his goal prowess will be that of Otamendi’s

  2. Great article as always geek. I do actually have all these. This is my team:

    Pope, Elliot
    Alonso, Otamendi, Jones, Robertson, Bardsley
    Salah, Coutinho, Sterling, Lingard, Carroll
    Kane, Aguero, Quaner

    Trying to catch the leader of my mini so hoping people like Aguero, Coutinho, Salah etc. will help me do that as he only has Kane, Sterling, Alonso and Otamendi the same as me (4 of the 6 you mentioned funnily enough). Hopefully I can catch him, but he’s 100 points ahead so going to be tough but hoping my extra 2.0 value will help me! Thanks again geek.

  3. I’ve had those players for the last 4 weeks, except Kane during #Kanexit . The consistency has been amazing, could you write on the best differentials? Considering the other 6 or so outfield players? Thanks, nice write.

  4. Nice article and just the right one that I’m looking for now as I’m sitting right on 10k OR. I have all those players except Otamendi which does feel like is hurting my team last few gwks. Thanks

  5. Thanks for this. I’ve just entered the top 10k over the holiday period so this is really helpful. The only one I’m missing from above is cover of Chelsea defence. I did have Christensen but I sold him for Vertonghen for the DGW. I’ve got just enough money to upgrade him for Alonso so I think that will be my transfer for GW23, assuming Arnie and Salah are fit

  6. Great article and i believe this is the way. Winning the mini leagues is fun but being a top 10k Manager consistently is the real game. I think it would be helpful if you did analysis on how to spend the other 50 plus million as that is what will get you to the top of your mini league and Top of the FPL.
    I have been looking at players over the past 8 game weeks. For example:
    Mahrez. 66 points

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