Here’s the fifth in a series of fantasy premier league advice articles where we look at each clubs most disappointing FPL player so far this season and see whether they can rebound this or next season. Hopefully it will identify some value players for this or next season. In this article we’ve looked at Leicester and Liverpool.
fantasy premier league advice – Each clubs disappointments and can they rebound? – part 5
I outline my FPL strategy along with 10 other FFGeek contributors in our new EBook.
Leicester – Youri Tielemans £6.1m
In pre-season Tielemans looked a viable FPL prospect. He was relatively good value at £6.5m and in 13 games in 18/19 had a PPM of 4.8.
There were some signs that maybe it was not as straightforward as the PPM suggested. He had overperformed his expected stats quite significantly and although he was shooting ata very respectable 2.54 shots per 90 he had never previously got above 2 for either shots or key passes per 90 for Monaco which was a bit of a red flag. Playing as a CM in 18/19 even in the slightly more advanced version in front of Ndidi is also not a particularly great starting position. What’s more his shot map showed plenty of long range speculative efforts.
However the 19/20 season ended up worse than anyone could have predicted. A 3.4 PPM plus losing his place in the last couple of games. He returned the same number of goals and assists in 24 starts as he did in 18/19 in 13. He only returned a goal or assist in 5 games which is a pathetic 21% return rate and managed a run of 12 games without a return. This was not a bad luck his underlying numbers were frankly terrible including for me the greatest underlying sin of shooting and assist volumes per 90 under 2.0.
Is there a rebound for Tielemans. Not for me. His numbers have been terrible and he has been a sub in the last 2 matches.
Liverpool – Firmino £9.5m
Firstly this is Firmino as an FPL asset rather than a footballing asset. I think everyone knows how important his link up play is to Liverpool and the success of Mane and Salah.
However as an FPL asset it’s easy to see Firmino solely as a diminishing PPM over the last 3 seasons. Throw in the last 4 games with no return to add to an earlier season 6 games without a return and a 41% return rate where for £9.5m you’d like something closer to 50%. In PPM terms only Lacazette and Jesus have a poorer PPM and they are both distorted by sub appearances. Both have better points per 90.
However looking under the hood things aren’t anywhere near as gloomy. In my last forward player rankings article in underlying stats terms Firmino was 3rd over the season and 3rd over the last 10 gameweeks and 1st over the last 5. The problem has been converting those underlying stats to goals and assists. He has scored 8 goals but has 15.49 in xG. That’s the most under performance of any player in the league. He has a bit of a mixed history with over and under performing his expected stats but he’s certainly not a serial under performer.
Firmino is someone I can see bouncing back this season and next. I have him in my team and will be holding him for when and if the season resumes.
I outline my FPL strategy along with 10 other FFGeek contributors in our new EBook.
Other posts
Best fixtures until the end of the season attackers
Best fixtures to the end of the season defenders
A deep dive on the 10 top FPL managers stats
Andrew Whitfield gradual wildcard
Social Media
Follow FFGeek on twitter and facebook and instagram for article updates and news
