fantasy premier league best forwards GW1 – player rankings


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Here’s our first  fantasy premier league best forwards GW1 player rankings article.   There’s a table of stats, plus commentary and a spreadsheet you can use to make your own rankings.

fantasy premier league best forwards GW1 – player rankings

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Methodology

I’ve picked a selection of forwards who I expect to start GW1.

I’ve then looked at their expected goals and assists data in 18/19 so far as well as how it relates to their historical numbers. After that I’ve then adjusted it for their ability to over/underperform, their bonus potential, and their average minutes played.

Stats definitions

PP90 mins adjusted: I’ve taken their Points per 90 and adjusted them for average minutes played in the last 10 games. However in some cases where I didn’t think that was representative going forward I’ve subjectively adjusted them.

FFG Proj PPG: The PPG going forward using the above methodology adjusted for minutes played as above

FPL PPM: The points per match from the fantasy premier league website

Consistency: the % of starts where the player has scored a goal or assist. Only appearance of 45 mins or more count

Average mins last 10: The average minutes played when starting in the last 10 gameweeks of 18/19. However in some cases where I didn’t think that was representative going forward I’ve subjectively adjusted them.

Fixture ease: this is the fixture adjustment from my attacking players fixture ease schedule article.

Projected points;  The projected points for the player over 6 gameweeks

VFM:  the projected points divided by the cost of the player.

The schedule

Here is the link to the google spreadsheet. You can go to file>make a copy and then sort it how you like. Yaniv for example swears, as you’ll know if you’re in the FFGeek Slack channel, by  PPM and I guess when you’ve finished in the top 10k the last 2 seasons you’ve got a fairly good defence of that metric.

However, the schedule is ranked by my projected points over 6 gameweeks. That’s my projected points per game adjusted for fixtures over 6 weeks.



 fantasy premier league best forwards GW1

A few notes

Players not in the schedule.

I can’t see Aguero starting after not appearing at all in the Community Shield.  Glenn Murray has new competition from Maupay so I’ve not put either in the schedule.  I think Moise Kean has probably arrived a little too late for Everton v Palace.

Injury doubts

Lacazette, Deulofeu and Jimenez also have some degree of doubt but are expected to be ok

Returns from International duty

Aguero, Firmino and Jimenez. As I said above Aguero didn’t play any minutes in the Community Shield so I’ve ruled him out.  Firmino started so he seems safe.  Jimenez has played decent minutes in the Europa and although has been an injury doubt should be ok.

Penalty takers

Penalty takers are Aguero, Kane, Vardy, King, Ings and Deeney.  There are others such as Aubameyang, Lacazette, Jimenez, Barnes and Wood where there’s some question of a job share or uncertainty about whether they are the definitive designated penalty taker.

New players to the PL

Modelling the new players is obviously difficult.

Haller has good all round underlying stats but I cut them down in the ratio of goals scored last season between Frankfurt and West Ham.  I didn’t make a negative adjustment for the premier league per se and modelled his bonus potential on someone similar.  He has come out very well but obviously there’s estimation.  Interestingly his consistency return rate was excellent.  He returned a goal or assist in 16 of 24 games which is an incredible 67%.

Abraham was difficult.  He actually performed well for a Swansea side that scored few goals but if I extrapolated his stats from them to Chelsea’s goals last season he would be in Aguero country which seems unlikely.  In the end I used the uplift that Llorente took to Spurs from Swansea but it’s hardly a flawless assumption.  With Giroud and Batshuayi there Abraham will be a substitution risk which is why I’ve put his average minutes so low.  Preseason makes it seem like he will be the starter.

I did something similar to Haller with Joelinton and with Moraes and Pukki although it is at best an educated guess.

Hope you found it useful



Attacking players fixture ease schedule

fantasy premier league best fixtures GW1

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2 thoughts on “fantasy premier league best forwards GW1 – player rankings”

  1. I’m currently paying the extra £1.5m for Wilson over king. Any thoughts on my team would be great. Thanks

    Pickford (button)

    TAA-VVD-digne-smith (Lundstram)

    Salah-siggy-Fraser-Perez (Dendoncker)

    Aubameyang-Wilson (Wickham)

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