Here’s our fantasy premier league tips forwards GW12 article in our player rankings series. There’s a table of stats to help you make a transfer choice plus some commentary afterwards
fantasy premier league tips forwards GW12 – player rankings
This is the 3rd article in our player rankings series. See the defender and GK player rankings article and the midfield player rankings article
Methodology
I’ve started with a selection of forwards that I think will start GW12 and have some longevity in the team.
I’ve then looked at their expected goals and assists data in 18/19 so far as well as how it relates to their historical numbers. I’ve then adjusted it for their ability to over/underperform, their bonus potential, their fixtures over the next 6 and any specific 18/19 factors and numbers.
Whether you believe the rankings or not there’s plenty of information to make your own decision
Stats definitions
SP/Pen: indicates whether the player has some set piece representation or penalty responsibility
Pts per 90: the FPL points earned per 90 minutes played in 18/19
Consistency: the % of starts where the player has scored a goal or assist. Sub appearances are ignored.
Mins last 4: average minutes of the last 4 matches. Generally I count sub appearances or rotation but not injury absences although there is some discretion there.
Fixture ease ranking so you can see who has the best fixtures from GW12-17 and GW12-14. See our fixture ease article
xG90/xA 90 – their expected goals and expected assists per 90 minutes played. An xG90 of 0.3 would imply a 30% chance of scoring every 90 minutes based on an average premier league player. I’ve taken them from the excellent free site understat.com
Sh90 and KP90 and – shots per 90 and key passes per 90 minutes played. I’ve taken this from the excellent free site whoscored.com
ATGS GW12 and ATasst – 1 bookies anytime goalscoring odds and anytime assists for the player. ATGS assumes they start and doesn’t include assist potential. Only some games have assist stats
Player values are as of Thursday 8 November.
The schedule
Remember it ranks players by projected points over the next 6 games.
Here’s the schedule. If difficult to read you can copy and paste it by using this link to the google spreadsheet. I’ve laid it out so it’s much easier to sort the columns by higher and lower once you’ve copied it
A few comments
Generally it’s pretty straight forward.
I haven’t assumed that Arnautovic has pens. While he has taken one Noble said he gifted it to helps his initial confidence. Noble is suspended for GW12 THOUGH
I have assumed that Murray will take pens in the absence of Gross although that could change when Gross is back.
Jimenez is quite low as he has a poor finishing record compared to his expected goals. Something he’s brought to Wolves.
I’ve not included Lukaku as he is an injury and starting risk. Deeney and King are doubts for the weekend. Success and Mounie I’m not sure of gametime longevity.
See also the popular and not so popular forwards in the bandwagons and sinking ships article plus also who the 10 top managers I follow have in their team. Also who I have or maybe interested in getting in the early thoughts on the FFgeek team article
Lastly also see who Andrew Ferguson has in his team. He finished 715 OR last season
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