fantasy premier league best forwards GW5 – player rankings


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Here’s our fantasy premier league best forwards GW5 – player rankings article. There’s a table of stats to help you make a transfer choice and some brief commentary.

fantasy premier league best forwards GW5 – player rankings

This is our 3rd player rankings article. You can see defenders and GK rankings and midfielders using these links

With a bit more time here’s the longer version although the comments are very short

Methodology

I’ve started with a selection of forwards that I think will start GW5 and have some longevity in the team.

I’ve then taken their expected goals and assist information from 17/18 and converted it into projected points through adjustments for minutes played bonus and fixtures. There’s also adjustments for any specific relevant 18/19 factors. For fixtures I’ve taken a slightly longer view than previously of 6 games.

Whether you believe the rankings or not there’s plenty of information to make your own decision

We are obviously only 4 gameweeks in so it’s inevitable that the large basis of information is based on last seasons stats

Stats definitions

Pts per 90 17/18: the FPL points earned per 90 minutes played in 17/18

PPM 18/19:  the points per match from the FPL site

Fixture ease ranking so you can see who has the best fixtures from GW5-10 and GW5-7. See our fixture ease article

Underlying stats ranking is from our end of season underlying stats article where projected goals are turned into raw points. It’s their rank in relation to all forwards. Info from the excellent free site understat.com

VFM rank. I have divided their projected points by their price to get a rough value for money assessment

ATGS GW5 – 1 bookies anytime goalscoring odds for the player. It assumes they start and doesn’t include assist potential

The schedule

Here’s a link to the google spreadsheet.  You can copy and paste it if you wish to change it



fantasy premier league best forwards GW5

Aguero

There’s no doubting Aguero’s quality and his ability to score points and he’s started the season off with a similar output to last season.  The risk is the new phase of the season we’re entering into with the Champions League arriving and how that changes Pep’s team sheets.  The fixtures are eye wateringly good.  Has pens.

Fulham (H)
Cardiff (A)
Brighton (H)
Liverpool (A)
Burnley (H)
Spurs (A)

Kane

Should we be worried about Harry Kane?  His output this season is similar to the drop in his underlying stats which to be fair are more consistent with years gone by.  He also looks as much a number 10 as he does a CF.  It’s still early to draw final conclusions but it’s not great.  Still has pens.

Liverpool (H)
Brighton (A)
Huddersfield (A)
Cardiff (H)
West Ham (A)
Man City (H)

Lukaku

Lukaku is the shining light in Man Utd’s season of darkness if you pardon the dramatic intro.  Posting some very healthy numbers and pretty good fixtures to follow.

Watford (A)
Wolves (H)
West Ham (A)
Newcastle (H)
Chelsea (A)
Everton (H)

Aubameyang

Aubameyang was finally shunted to the left as a starter and against Cardiff did very little apart from the wonder strike from distance.  Has shown the ability to produce from the left but it’s not ideal that’s for sure.

Newcastle (A)
Everton (H)
Watford (H)
Fulham (A)
Leicester (H)
Crystal Palace (A)

Wilson

The issue with Wilson is that he’s currently producing crazy numbers in relation to his history so you have to call into question the sustainability.  However while he has good fixtures and is playing 90 minutes at the price there’s not a huge downside

Leicester (H)
Burnley (A)
Crystal Palace (H)
Watford (A)
Southampton (H)
Fulham (A)

Lacazette

Lacazette started his first game this season as CF with a goal and assist but given it is his first game and Emery looks like a Pep impersonator with his changing teamsheet then how secure he is has to be questioned. A great price though with great fixtures

Newcastle (A)
Everton (H)
Watford (H)
Fulham (A)
Leicester (H)
Crystal Palace (A)

Firmino

Firmino is down on last year but the underlying numbers are at a similar level which is helpful.  Minutes wise he has options to be substituted for which isn’t helpful.

Spurs (A)
Southampton (H)
Chelsea (A)
Man City (H)
Huddersfield (A)
Cardiff (H)

Vardy

Vardy’s season hasn’t really started and is just over 90 minutes long so difficult to draw any conclusions.  It’s a history punt (minus the Mahrez influence) and good fixtures.  Also will have pens.

Bournemouth (A)
Huddersfield (H)
Newcastle (A)
Everton (H)
Arsenal (A)
West Ham (H)

Mitrovic

What a start Mitrovic has made.  It’s just hard to know where he will level off with the lack of decent history to refer to as he maybe good but I can’t see him continuing with these Aguero type numbers

Man City (A)
Watford (H)
Everton (A)
Arsenal (H)
Cardiff (A)
Bournemouth (H)

Morata

Morata has Giroud breathing down his neck for minutes off the bench as well as his starting position.  It hasn’t helped by his poor start and the underlying stats that any grandmother would be ashamed of.  Cardiff next though so if you’re looking to punt now is the time

Cardiff (H)
West Ham (A)
Liverpool (H)
Southampton (A)
Man Utd (H)
Burnley (A)

King

King has penalty duties.  That and fixtures are the main draw as he really has been producing little in the way of attacking output

Leicester (H)
Burnley (A)
Crystal Palace (H)
Watford (A)
Southampton (H)
Fulham (A)



Zaha

Zaha is still an injury doubt but there are some reports that he will be fit.  Positional risk as he is historically a winger, as well as a complete inability to get bonus points are the drawbacks.  Fixtures are the positives.

Huddersfield (A)
Newcastle (H)
Bournemouth (A)
Wolves (H)
Everton (A)
Arsenal (H

Ings

Ings has started the season extremely well.  His risk areas are a lack of comparable history to gauge where we think he can perform over a longer period than 3 games and the constant substitutions that Hughes makes of his forwards now that he has 4

Brighton (H)
Liverpool (A)
Wolves (A)
Chelsea (H)
Bournemouth (A)
Newcastle (H)

Deeney

Deeney is another penalty taker and these have been the mainstay of his output.  He’s started the season well but is performing way above expectations so how sustainable it is remains to be seen

Man Utd (H)
Fulham (A)
Arsenal (A)
Bournemouth (H)
Wolves (A)
Huddersfield (H)

Tosun

Tosun has been an incredible disappointing figure this season who rather than kicking on from last season has gone into reverse.  Fixtures are the only positive.

West Ham (H)
Arsenal (A)
Fulham (H)
Leicester (A)
Crystal Palace (H)
Man Utd (A)

Arnautovic

Arnautovic will do well to rise above the current shambles situation that West Ham is in.  Has penalty duties are a  bonus.  Fixtures aren’t helpful

Everton (A)
Chelsea (H)
Man Utd (H)
Brighton (A)
Spurs (H)
Leicester (A)

Jimenez

It’s hard to assess someone who’s just joined the league after 4 games which is the situation for Jimenez but it’s been a pretty mixed start after a very good gameweek 1 (albeit against 10 man Everton).  Takes alot of shots which is a good start.

Burnley (H)
Man Utd (A)
Southampton (H)
Crystal Palace (A)
Watford (H)
Brighton (A)

Murray

Murray is a pretty consistent performer but the doubts over penalty duties and the fixtures makes him a tricky choice

Southampton (A)
Spurs (H)
Man City (A)
West Ham (H
Newcastle (A)
Wolves (H)

Wood

Wood looks a shadow of the player of last year when he was excellent,  as do Burnley.  Great initial fixtures though and now out of the Europa League

Wolves (A)
Bournemouth (H)
Cardiff (A)
Huddersfield (H)
Man City (A)
Chelsea (H)

Gray

Similar comments to Wood.  Not performing anything like last season.

Man Utd (H)
Fulham (A)
Arsenal (A)
Bournemouth (H)
Wolves (A)
Huddersfield (H)

See also the bandwagons and sinking ships article Rob Reids August review the FFGeek contributors imaginary wildcard teams part 1,  10 top FPL managers article, the underlying stats GW4 article, Jordans wildcard team, the early thoughts on the FFGeek team article and thefixture ease article

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3 thoughts on “fantasy premier league best forwards GW5 – player rankings

  1. Thanks Geek! Love to see Mitrovic going up in your list! 🙂 after two goals against Romania I hope he can keep his form (I think he should have pens 2)..
    Regarding Arsenal strikers, don’t you think now when Lacazette is a sure starter at least for the next GW he should be above Auba only due to the fact that he plays as a CF and Auba play in he side?
    Thanks!
    ps I hope Kane will wait little bit longer till he come back fully power…

  2. Should I transfer Shaw, Luiz and Aubameyang for Robertson, Alonso and Vardy?

    Full team:
    Patricio, Hamer
    Luiz, Shaw, Mendy, Schlupp, Bissaka
    Salah, Mane, Walcott, Hughes, McDonald
    Aguero, Aubameyang, Ings

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