fantasy premier league best players – searching for Mr Consistency


Here’s my fantasy premier league best players article where we looking for the attacking players who deserve the title of Mr Consistency.  This basically entails having a consistent level of returns over the last 3 seasons.

fantasy premier league best players – searching for Mr Consistency




The objective

Finding attacking players (ie midfielders and forwards) who over 3 seasons have shown to have had similar outcomes each season subject to some specific criteria.  It is different than the consistency term I usually use which is the players that have a high % of games where they return a goal and/or an assist.

Identifying these players means that history will show that over a season they will produce similar returns of points on their playing time.  Now obviously the past doesn’t guarantee the present but it’s not a bad place to start.  By returns I mean actual returns as opposed to underlying stats.

Now it’s unlikely that you will ever hold a player for an entire season but this may mean you are willing to hold him longer during a dry spell than you would some other players who haven’t produced that year on year consistency.

The Criteria 

Only midfielders and forwards analysed.

Played 1000 minutes minimum the last 3 seasons.

Gained 100 points plus each of the last 3 seasons

Points per 90 minutes of 4.00 minimum as there’s no point in someone consistently bad every season.

Points per match of 4.00 this season to avoid players who earned their points from the subs bench.

Lastly the players PP90 over the 3 years could not have a highest and lowest range of more than 1 point eg last 3 seasons of PP90 of 5.5, 6.0 and 6.4 would qualify. This would not 5.5, 5.4 and 6.7.  It’s a consistency of the level of returns for predictability reasons not an improvers return or an average return.

The players who qualified

Midfielders – Hazard, Mane and Son

Forwards – Vardy, Firmino and Zaha.

Hazard

Stats:

SeasonMinutesPointsPP90
18/1929182387.34
17/1824171736.44
16/1729852246.75
Average27732126.85

His points per match from the FPL site is 6.4.  This has been diluted by early season sub appearances as he regained fitness after the World Cup.

Hazard was in my FPL team for 21 gameweeks and averaged 5.4 points so I didn’t get the best of him that’s for sure.  He appeared 11 times in the 16  FPL contributors top 5 players and it was Rob Cosgrove who got the best return with 12 games at an average FPL points of 7.3 per game.

The 18/19 season was a spectacular success.  He was the 2nd highest scoring player in the FPL game.  He returned a goal or assist in 18 of 32 matches that he played more than 45 minutes in which is a creditable 56% and he never went more than 2 games without blanking.  He continued to pick up bonus points for fun with no player getting more than his 35.  He also is one of the rare midfielders who have penalty duties.

It’s a shame that it seems likely he will move to Real Madrid next season.

Sadio Mane

Stats:

SeasonMinutesPointsPP90
18/1930762316.76
17/1821891476.04
16/1722421566.26
Average25021786.35

His points per match from the FPL site in 18/19 were 6.4.  Again sub appearances and being subbed off early dilutes the PP90 stat.

Of the players in my FPL team who played 5 games or more Sadio Mane was my top points per game player with 10 games at an average of 8.5 points.

Mane served the FFGeek contributors well with 15 of the 16 contributors having him in their top 5 points per game ranking.  Stephen Troop was the most successful with 5 games at an average of 8.8 points.

His consistency in the traditional sense wasn’t quite as good with a goal or assist in 17 of 35 starts which is slightly under the 50% threshold you would want for a premium player.  He also had a 3 game spell and a 4 game spell with no returns.  However you can’t argue with his overall returns for the season with only Sterling Hazard and Salah scoring more FPL points.  He also seem to fix the bonus points problem from last season where he attracted a meagre 8. This season he gained 24.

I talk about him more in my underlying stats review article

Son Heung Min

Stats;

SeasonMinutesPointsPP90
18/1920331597.04
17/1822921786.99
16/1720631747.59
Average21291707.21

For those who owned Son consistent won’t be the word that will first come to mind after 18/19.  On an annual basis though, the mind boggles at how effective Son has been when on the pitch as you can see from his PP90.  However 7 appearances from the bench and being substituted 8 times before 80 minutes eroded that number and his FPL points per match of 5.1 only put him as 6th in midfield.  His season was blighted by the World Cup and Asian games causing fatigue which is why his minutes were so managed.

While he may have had a consistent annual return over the seasons,  in 18/19 he was anything other than consistent.

A hot streak between GW16 and GW26 was followed by an 11 gameweek stretch with 2 returning games only culminating in a sending off in GW37.

However again if you look at it from an overall basis he returned a goal or assist in 13 of 23 games where he played 45 minutes or more.  That’s a more than respectable 57%.

The key was whether you had him in the hot streak or the cold streak.  I had him when he was cold.  6 matches at an average of 3.5 points.

No FFGeek contributor had him in their top 5 average point scorer and 4 contributors had him in their bottom 5 which says alot.

Vardy

Stats:

SeasonMinutesPointsPP90
18/1927261745.74
17/1832481835.07
16/1728011615.17
Average29251735.33

Vardy’s FPL points per match was 5.1 dragged down by a few sub appearances in Puel days.

Vardy was only in my FPL team for 2 weeks but gave me an impressive 9 point average.  When you apply a 5 game minimum though Yaniv had the best success with him of the FFGeek contributors with 5 games at an 8.8 points average.  He was in the top 5 points per match scorers for 3 contributors.

He returned a goal or assist in 14 of his 31 games (45%) with 45 minutes or more played which is a little disappointing.  His worst blank streak was 5 games which is also not great.  He was ranked 5th among strikers in points per match and 4th in total points.  Bonus wise only Aubameyang and Hazard earned more.



Firmino

Stats:

SeasonMinutesPointsPP90
18/1926061605.53
17/1827601815.90
16/1730621805.29
Average28091745.57

Firminos FPL points per match was 4.7.  He had a few sub appearances and he was subbed before the 80th minute 9 times.  All of which diluted his PP90.  You can see his points and minutes are on a sliding scale.

He was one player I never selected for my FPL team all season.  The Mane, Salah and Alexander Arnold attractions were just too strong alternatives.  No FFGeek contributors had him in their top 5 points per match scorers.

His returns have been fairly predictable on a PP90 basis but I would question whether his minutes give him an adequate return for the price.

His consistency of returns in terms of goals or assists in starts weren’t too bad with 14 returns from 29 starts (48%).  However he did provide us with a 7 game blank streak as well as a 3 game blank streak.

Zaha

Stats:

SeasonMinutesPointsPP90
18/1930371434.24
17/1825491364.80
16/1730191494.44
Average28681434.49

 

Zaha’s points per match is 4.2.  As the star of the Palace team his minutes, barring injury, are very predictable.  He was never on the subs bench and only once played less than 80 minutes all season.

However his PP90 and Points per match are hardly setting the world alight and while his returns on an annual basis are consistent they’re hardly earth shattering.

Zaha featured in my team for 4 games for a pretty poor return of 3.8 points per game.  No FFGeek contributor had them in their top 5 points per game scorers.

Zaha was 10th in total points and 11th in points per match on the FPL site.  He still has a bonus issue with only 13  this season after 8 last season.

Having said that he returned a goal or assist in 16 of 34 (47%) starts which for the price is good.  He also only went 4 starts without a return once and 3 starts without a return once.

So what does this mean?

So while looking at consistent PP90’s over 3 seasons can provide players who on the face of it we maybe inclined to hold longer because of that it doesn’t change the cold reality that there are very few players we hold long enough to have patience for inconsistent returns or blank streaks over the season we are in.  Holding out for pie tomorrow isn’t easy to wait for if someone puts todays menu in front of you with other seemingly better alternatives.

So given that Hazard and Mane coupled the season to season consistency with consistency over the 18/19 season they are my real Mr Consistencies.  Hazard more than Mane if there were to be a winner.  Vardy also was close but some aspects weren’t up to it.  Son and Firmino had some bad blank streaks and Zaha maybe predictable and consistent on a season basis but the level of returns weren’t exactly great.

Hope you found it interesting.

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