Background 

Just as a general point for those coming to the site for the first time.   I did alot of research on where the 10 point plus fantasy premier league attacking scores came from and the vast majority came from the top 4 challenging teams playing the potentially relegation threatened teams.  Now that may sound like common sense and it is how I look at where the captain choices should come from.   The theory is simple, you get more shots against the poorer teams.  What was interesting is that there wasn’t much variance between the home fixture and the away fixture.  The opposition was key.  However at the moment Suarez is breaking all the rules and is a form option irrespective of the opposition.

Here’s the best fixtures:

1.  Everton v Villa

2.  Stoke v Man Utd

3.  Arsenal v Palace

The picks for me from this are:  Mirallas, RVP and Giroud.  Suarez is always in the mix for me.

Mirallas (home to Villa)

• Will he start?

Yes.   There doesn’t seem to be any injury issues.   Interestingly with Lukaku and Traore injured it seems likely that either he or Maismith will start as striker.  Naismith did so against Stevenage.  Mirallas could play behind the striker alternatively but Barkleys return may scupper that

• How consistent is he generally and at home?

Not great:  5 goals 4 assists in 23 matches.   Consistency 7/23  30%          Last 5 consistency return rate:  2/5  Has scored in 2 of last 3 although that was with Barley out and a more central position available.  Better at home returning in 5/11 home matches

• How has he performed against poor opposition so far

Excellent returned against Norwich Fulham and Hull at home.

• Whats his recent form like

Very Good.  Scored in 2 of his last 3 games.  They were without Barkley in the side and he was able to occupy a more central role.  Has looked very threatening though

• Whats his underlying stats like

Excellent.  Just cant seem to convert

• Whats the opposition defence like

Not great away.  5 out of the last 6 games they’ve conceded 2 goals.  Have done ok with the better sides though as it allows them to sit and counter

• Is he an option?

Not for me.  Despite his excellent home form against poor teams and his current form and possible positional advantage this week, he just doesn’t inspire the trust needed for the captains armband

RVP (away to Stoke)

• Will he start?

He is fit and played midweek.  However anything is possible when it comes to RVP and Moyes.  He used wonderful words midweek about “managing them”.  I’d like to think he will start but any trust I had for anything Moyes says and transparency and predictability over injuries and team selection have long long gone

• How consistent is he generally and away?  

Very good:   He’s only played 12 games and returned in 7/12 which is 58%.  That’s very low for RVP who in the last 2 seasons has been an 80% man.  Only played 4 away games and returned heavily in 2 of those

• How has he performed against poor opposition away so far?

Very good.  2 goals away to Swansea and a goal and an assist away to Fulham.  Blanked against Sunderland away but should have scored

• Whats his recent form like

Excellent.   2 goals in 2 games since starting back from injury.

• Whats his underlying stats like

Nothing like last year.  Good shooting stats but not incredible like Aguero and Suarez.  Not creating chances at all like they do.

• Whats the opposition defence like

Overall good at home but against the top sides they can stumble.  Liverpool ran riot and Chelsea lost 3-2 but could have easily matched Liverpools score

• Is he an option?

Yes  Only issue is whether he will start.  I like to think he will given the precarious position United are in

Giroud (Palace Home)

• Will he start?

Should do.  Wenger has occasionally rested him at home to easier opposition and a mid week game could bring this into that category.  I personally think he will start as Palace are no longer a push over home or away.

• How consistent is he generally and  at home?

Not great:  Overall: 10 goals and 5 assists in 21 games.   Consistency 12/21  57%.  At home its worse.  Returned in 4/9

• How has he performed against poor opposition so far at home

Not great:   Didn’t return ai home to Stoke and Fulham.  Did against Norwich and Villa

• Whats his recent form like

Very good.  3 goals and an assist in his last 5 returning in 4 of 5.  Is a scorer who goes in fits and starts

• Whats his underlying stats like

Ok.  Good shooting stats.  Creating chances stats aren’t very good though.

• Whats the opposition defence like

Have really improved home and away under Pulis.  Witness the excellent performance losing 1-0 at City and 2-1 against Chelsea.

• Is he an option? 

Not for me.  Too inconsistent despite cerement good form.  The opposition wont be easy.

Suarez (WBA)

• Will he start?

Definitely

• How consistent is he generally and  away?

Unreal.   A machine.  Overall  22 goals and 14 assists in 18 games:     Consistency 15/18 returns    83% .  Better at home.  Away it’s 6 returns out of 9 games.  Only Arsenal Hull and City have stopped him.  Interestingly the 3 best home defences.

• How has he performed against poor opposition so far away from home

Hasn’t played that many.  Returned against all 3 in Stoke Newcastle and Sunderland

• Whats his recent form like

Unreal.  returned in his last 5.  4 goals and 3 assists

• Whats his underlying stats like

Excellent.  The best of any striker.  Great shooting and creating chances stats.  Only Aguero is even close

• Whats the opposition defence like

The WBA defence has actually been ok prior to Pepe Mell joining who is a very attack minded coach.  He’s also replaced the excellent McAuley with Lugano who at best you could say is still “adjusting”.  Any team who concedes 4 at Villa who are one of the worst attacking sides at home has to be questioned defensively

• Is he an option?

Absolutely definitely

Summary:

Yes in order:

1. Suarez

2.  RVP

Mirallas while good team picks this week are too inconsistent for the captains armband

William Hill check

Here’s how William Hill see the anytime goal scorer odds market with all players at under £2.00

1.   £1.50 – Giroud

2.  £1.61 – Suarez

2.  £1.91  – RVP Podolski Traore (injured)

Mirallas is £2.25

Interesting.   They are far more bullish on Giroud than me.  Suarez looks excellent value at £1.61. Podolski I dont think will start and new Everton signing Traore is still injured.

Thats itfor my team it’s Suarez with Sturridge as vice.  Interestingly Sturridge is £2.00 which seeems good value

I hope that gives you some food for thought for your fantasy premier league captain choice.

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