Background 

Just as a general point for those coming to the site for the first time.   I did alot of research on where the 10 point plus fantasy premier league attacking scores came from and the vast majority came from the top 4 challenging teams playing the potentially relegation threatened teams.  Now that may sound like common sense and it is how I look at where the captain choices should come from.   The theory is simple, you get more shots against the poorer teams.  What was interesting is that there wasn’t much variance between the home fixture and the away fixture.  The opposition was key.  However at the moment Suarez is breaking all the rules and is a form option irrespective of the opposition.

Here’s the best fixtures:

1.  Chelsea v Newcastle

2.  Norwich v Man City

3.  Man Utd v Fulham

The picks for me from this are:  Hazard, Dzeko and RVP.  Suarez is always in the mix for me.

Hazard (home to Newcastle)

• Will he start?

Yes.   There doesn’t seem to be any injury issues.

• How consistent is he generally and at home?

Overall not great:    9 goals and  8 assists.   Consistency 11/24   46%  Last 5 return consistency:  2/5.  At home he’s not much better returning in 6 out of 12 games.

• How has he performed against poor opposition so far

Mixed but capable of big hauls.  Didn’t return home to Hull Fulham and West Ham.  Did against Cardiff WBA Palace and Swansea.  Cardiff and WBA were big hauls

• Whats his recent form like

Not great hasn’t returned in his last 3.  Has still looked dangerous in every game though

• Whats his underlying stats like

Very good.   One of the better midfielders for all around stats

• Whats the opposition defence like

Have improved away showed by wins at Man Utd.   Only conceded 2 goals in their last 5 away.  Have been hammered previously earlier in the season 0-4 against City and 2-3 against Everton.  Have Tiote injured which is the loss of a CDM shield. Colloccini has been injured for some of those games anyway

• Is he an option?

Not for me.   Despite looking dangerous his returns are too inconsistent and the defence has shown some recent form.

RVP (home to Fulham)

• Will he start?

He should start.  No known injury issues and with United in deep trouble points wise it would seem a big risk to rest him after he’s only been back for 2 games

• How consistent is he generally and at home?  

Very good:   He’s only played 13 games and returned in 8/13 which is 62%.  That’s very low for RVP who in the last 2 seasons has been an 80% man.   At home he’s returned in 5/7 games.

• How has he performed against poor opposition at home so far?

Very good.   Scored against Palace pre Pulis, Stoke and Cardiff

• Whats his recent form like

Excellent.   2 goals in 2 fantasy premier league games since starting back from injury.

• Whats his underlying stats like

Nothing like last year.  Good shooting stats but not incredible like Aguero and Suarez.  Not creating chances at all like they do.

• Whats the opposition defence like

The worst.  In the last 6 games they’ve conceded 18 goals.  Away to the top 4 challenging teams it has been pretty bad but not horrendous with losses to Chelsea 2-0 Liverpool 4-0 and most recently Arsenal 2-0

• Is he an option?

Yes  Only issue is whether he will start.  I like to think he will given the precarious position United are in

Dzeko (Norwich away)

• Will he start?

It seems so.  There has been some doubt about his fitness but Pellegrini confirmed yesterday he was fit

• How consistent is he generally  and away?

Good:  Overall 7 goals 4 assists.    Consistency  8/18  44%  but if you only include games he started then its 7/11 or 64% which is good.  Away from home he returned in 4/7 games (57%) when starting.

• How has he performed against poor opposition so far at away

Not great:  Returned against Villa and Cardiff away.  Blanked away to Fulham WBA and Swansea despite City scoring 9 goals in those 3 games

• Whats his recent form like

Good:  Returned in 3 out of 5 games.

• Whats his underlying stats like

Fantastic shooting stats but doesn’t create chances

• Whats the opposition defence like

Not too bad.  Chelsea scored 3, Everton 2 but could have had a hatful.  Man Utd only got the 1

• Is he an option? 

Not for me.  Too inconsistent and there’s always a doubt about any City striker starting

Suarez (home to Arsenal)

• Will he start?

Definitely

• How consistent is he generally and  at home?

Unreal.   A machine.  Overall  22 goals and 15 assists in 19 games:     Consistency 16/19 returns    84% .  Better at home where he has returned 100% of the time

• How has he performed against top 4 challenging opposition so far at home

They’ve only played Everton at home in that category where he scored and got an assist so very little data.  Was excellent away to City and Arsenal and unlucky not to return.  Chelsea and Hull are the main sides away from home to shackle him

• Whats his recent form like

Unreal.  returned in his last 5.  4 goals and 3 assists

• Whats his underlying stats like

Excellent.  The best of any striker.  Great shooting and creating chances stats.  Only Aguero is even close.  Interestingly has dropped off a little in the last 4 gameweeks.

• Whats the opposition defence like

Probably just been overtaken by Chelsea as the best defence.  Haven’t been tested by a top 4 challenging team away apart from Man City and we all knew how that went.  Hard to think that they will be drawn into a shootout though.

• Is he an option?

He’s always an option irrespective of the defence and in my mind has shown that against the top teams on most occaisons.

Summary:

Yes in order:

1. RVP

2. Suarez

No to Dzeko and Hazard

William Hill check

Here’s how William Hill see the anytime goal scorer odds market with all players at under £2.00

1.   £1.36 – RVP

2.  £1.57 – Negredo

3.  £1.61  – Rooney

4.  £1.73 – Eto’o Dzeko

5.  £1.91 – Torres

Suarez is £2.00.  Hazard is £2.25

Some interesting divergences here.  Negredo and Torres have some injury doubts so I’ve discounted them.  Eto’o is a possible option with 4 goals but only 2 returning games in his last 5.  Demba Ba playing is only a small risk.  Rooney is also a possible option but carries positonal risk after Moyes inexplicable decision to play him in midfield

I hope that gives you some food for thought for your fantasy premier league captain choice.

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