FANTASY PREMIER LEAGUE CAPTAIN CHOICE GW29


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Here’s our fantasy premier league captain choice GW29 article where we look at various ways of assessing the best captain pick for the gameweek. As usual we look at the fixtures, the bookies odds, the FPL advice site polls, any of the top 10 FPL managers we can find, our captain metrics table and the FFGeek choice.

FANTASY PREMIER LEAGUE CAPTAIN CHOICE GW29

THE FIXTURES

Here’s the fixtures for GW29:

The bookies see 3 teams as  favourites with the following win odds for £1 invested. It’s likely the fantasy premier league captain choice GW29 will come from one of those teams. However, the odds haven’t been as low as some previous weeks.  Here’s the teams with suggestions:

Everton (Hull h) at £1.50 – Lukaku

Arsenal (WBA a ) at £1.61 – Sanchez

Chelsea (Stoke a ) at £1.61 – Costa

THE BOOKIES ODDS




Here we look at one of the bookies anytime goal scoring odds. I’ve tried to only put players in who have some gametime security. It’s the return for £1 invested. Odds are as of Saturday morning and remember they assume the player starts and don’t count assist potential.

£1.80 – Lukaku

£ 1.95 – Aguero

£2.00 – Sanchez, Costa

£2.10 – Son HM

£2.20 – Defoe, Benteke,

£2.30 – Josh King, Dele Alli

£2.40 – Rashford

£2.50 – Andy Carroll

£2.62 – Sigurdsson, Llorente

THE FPL ADVICE SITE POLLS.

Firstly here’s the FFGeek poll:

The FFGeek captain poll result for the fantasy premier league captain choice GW29

Here’s the summary of the other main advice polls:

 The captain poll summary in our fantasy premier league captain choice GW29 article

It’s worth noting that site 1 is the site with the most traffic and probably replicates the top 10k FPL managers more than any other site

TOP 10 FPL MANAGERS AND BEST SOCIAL MEDIA ACCOUNTS

I have access to only 1 of the top 10 managers and he’s going Lukaku although mulling Sanchez for a hit. I managed to see what a decent amount good social media sites were doing with their teams.  75% are going for Lukaku as captain and the others Sanchez and Sigurdsson

USING VARIOUS MEASURES




I’ve ignored Gabbiadini due to small sample size

this is the metrics table assessing different ways of judging the fantasy premier league captain choice GW29

So Sanchez edges it 5 representations to Lukaku’s 4

SOME STATS

Here’s the squawka underlying stats between Lukaku and Sanchez

here's the squawka comparison between Sanchez and Lukaku for our fantasy premier league captain choice GW29 article

Interestingly Sanchez comes out on top.  The issue though is that Sanchez’s stats will be a mixture of striker and LAM.  It’s difficult to know where he will play today.

Sanchez away stats

sanchez away stats in our fantasy premier league captain choice GW29 article

Lukaku home stats




Lukakus home stats for fantasy premier league captain choice GW29

So Sanchez has more FPL points, Lukaku bonus and Sanchez ICT index.  Again Sanchez’s stats are a mixture of striker and LAM

Sanchez has returned a goal or assist in 9/13 away games.  Lukaku 8/13.  Ignoring top 7 sides Lukaku is returning in 7/9 and 10+ FPL points in 5.  Sanchez ignoring top 7 sides is returning in 6 of 8 games and 10+ points in 5/6.

WBA home defence

So against the top 7 sides (highlighted in grey) there’s a good chance 2 goals will be conceded

Hull away defence since Marco Silva

the hull defence post silva analysed for the fanatsy premier league captain article GW29

So small data sample.  The clean sheet at Man Utd involved a worldie performance from Jakupovic so I can see 2 goals conceded here.  Certainly they concede lots of shots

THE FFGEEK CHOICE and SUMMARY

I’m going with Lukaku. I wouldn’t go against a Poll leader of that magnitude.  I also have seen Hull concede alot of shots despite the remarkable defensive improvement.

On the analysis though.  Clearly the polls and the bookies favour Lukaku.  On all the metrics table looking backward and forward it’s very close.

They both have the ability to consistently return and  hammer sides in the lower parts of the table.  The WBA defence I’ve rated higher but they seem as likely to concede 2 goals as do Hull.

Sanchez’s state of mind and general child like stroppiness and the mess Arsenal are in is the intangible.  However there is an intangible with Lukaku in the publicity surrounding his refusal to sign a contract.  Also what position he plays is crucial as the stats are a mixture of both positions.

However for defensive reasons I’m going for Lukaku to avoid any big rank damage.  I do think both are good options with Lukaku being the safer option.

Good luck with whoever you go for as you fantasy premier league captain choice  GW29

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