Here’s our fantasy premier league captain choice GW29 article where we look at various ways of assessing the best captain pick for the gameweek. As usual we look at the fixtures, the bookies odds, the FPL advice site polls, any of the top 10 FPL managers we can find, our captain metrics table and the FFGeek choice.
FANTASY PREMIER LEAGUE CAPTAIN CHOICE GW29
Here’s the fixtures for GW29:
The bookies see 3 teams as favourites with the following win odds for £1 invested. It’s likely the fantasy premier league captain choice GW29 will come from one of those teams. However, the odds haven’t been as low as some previous weeks. Here’s the teams with suggestions:
Everton (Hull h) at £1.50 – Lukaku
Arsenal (WBA a ) at £1.61 – Sanchez
Chelsea (Stoke a ) at £1.61 – Costa
THE BOOKIES ODDS
Here we look at one of the bookies anytime goal scoring odds. I’ve tried to only put players in who have some gametime security. It’s the return for £1 invested. Odds are as of Saturday morning and remember they assume the player starts and don’t count assist potential.
£1.80 – Lukaku
£ 1.95 – Aguero
£2.00 – Sanchez, Costa
£2.10 – Son HM
£2.20 – Defoe, Benteke,
£2.30 – Josh King, Dele Alli
£2.40 – Rashford
£2.50 – Andy Carroll
£2.62 – Sigurdsson, Llorente
THE FPL ADVICE SITE POLLS.
Firstly here’s the FFGeek poll:
Here’s the summary of the other main advice polls:
It’s worth noting that site 1 is the site with the most traffic and probably replicates the top 10k FPL managers more than any other site
TOP 10 FPL MANAGERS AND BEST SOCIAL MEDIA ACCOUNTS
I have access to only 1 of the top 10 managers and he’s going Lukaku although mulling Sanchez for a hit. I managed to see what a decent amount good social media sites were doing with their teams. 75% are going for Lukaku as captain and the others Sanchez and Sigurdsson
USING VARIOUS MEASURES
I’ve ignored Gabbiadini due to small sample size
So Sanchez edges it 5 representations to Lukaku’s 4
Here’s the squawka underlying stats between Lukaku and Sanchez
Interestingly Sanchez comes out on top. The issue though is that Sanchez’s stats will be a mixture of striker and LAM. It’s difficult to know where he will play today.
Sanchez away stats
Lukaku home stats
So Sanchez has more FPL points, Lukaku bonus and Sanchez ICT index. Again Sanchez’s stats are a mixture of striker and LAM
Sanchez has returned a goal or assist in 9/13 away games. Lukaku 8/13. Ignoring top 7 sides Lukaku is returning in 7/9 and 10+ FPL points in 5. Sanchez ignoring top 7 sides is returning in 6 of 8 games and 10+ points in 5/6.
WBA home defence
So against the top 7 sides (highlighted in grey) there’s a good chance 2 goals will be conceded
Hull away defence since Marco Silva
So small data sample. The clean sheet at Man Utd involved a worldie performance from Jakupovic so I can see 2 goals conceded here. Certainly they concede lots of shots
THE FFGEEK CHOICE and SUMMARY
I’m going with Lukaku. I wouldn’t go against a Poll leader of that magnitude. I also have seen Hull concede alot of shots despite the remarkable defensive improvement.
On the analysis though. Clearly the polls and the bookies favour Lukaku. On all the metrics table looking backward and forward it’s very close.
They both have the ability to consistently return and hammer sides in the lower parts of the table. The WBA defence I’ve rated higher but they seem as likely to concede 2 goals as do Hull.
Sanchez’s state of mind and general child like stroppiness and the mess Arsenal are in is the intangible. However there is an intangible with Lukaku in the publicity surrounding his refusal to sign a contract. Also what position he plays is crucial as the stats are a mixture of both positions.
However for defensive reasons I’m going for Lukaku to avoid any big rank damage. I do think both are good options with Lukaku being the safer option.
Good luck with whoever you go for as you fantasy premier league captain choice GW29
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