Here’s our fantasy premier league captain choice GW30 article where we look at a number of ways of assessing the best captain pick for the gameweek. As usual we look at the fixtures, the bookies odds, the FPL advice site polls, any of the top 10 FPL managers we can find, our captain metrics table and the FFGeek choice.
FANTASY PREMIER LEAGUE CAPTAIN CHOICE GW30
Here’s the fixtures for GW30:
The bookies see 4 teams as favourites with the following win odds for £1 invested. It’s likely the fantasy premier league captain choice GW30 will come from one of those teams. However, this is a week unlike no other
Chelsea (CPAL h ) at £1. 29 – Costa and Hazard
Man Utd (WBA h ) at £1.33 – team selection too difficult
Southampton (Bournemouth h) at £1.62 – Tadic
Spurs (Burnley A) – at £1.62 – Alli, Eriksen and Son
THE BOOKIES ODDS
Here we look at one of the bookies anytime goal scoring odds. I’ve tried to only put players in who have some gametime security. It’s the return for £1 invested. Odds are as of Thursday evening and remember they assume the player starts and don’t count assist potential.
£1.66 – Costa
£ 2.00 – Hazard
£2.10 – Aguero
£2.29 – Son HM
£2.40 – Pedro
£2.50 – Coutinho, Firmino, Mane, Deeney, Sanchez
£2.62 – Vardy, Tadic, Redmond
£2.75 – Lukaku
THE FPL ADVICE SITE POLLS.
Firstly here’s the FFGeek poll:
Here’s the summary of the other main advice polls:
There’s no doubt that Costa is the most popular pick but after that it’s not clear
It’s worth noting that site 1 is the site with the most traffic and probably replicates the top 10k FPL managers more than any other site
TOP 10 FPL MANAGERS AND BEST SOCIAL MEDIA ACCOUNTS
No real intelligence at this stage on what people are doing
USING VARIOUS MEASURES
This is the metrics table assessing different ways of judging the fantasy premier league captain choice GW29
So Costa clearly first choice. Then Sanchez and Lukaku with 3 choices.
I’m going to concentrate on Costa, Lukaku and Vardy
Here’s the squawka comparison:
Costa is the more consistent. Lukaku still consistent but more explosive. Vardy someway behind the other 2. Underlying stats between Lukaku and Costa are similar. What Lukaku loses in shot volume he makes up for in accuracy.
Costa Home Stats
So some sort of return against every lower placed team. No double digit returns though
Lukaku away stats
So not as good as Costa and his record against the higher placed teams sees him score in 50% of games which is pretty good to be fair.
Vardy home stats
There’s only been 2 home matches since Shakespeare took over
Crystal Palace away defence
So since Allardyce took over, only 1 conceded in the last 3. However Arsenal are the only top 4 team played
Liverpool home defence
So for all the criticism levelled at it the Liverpool home defence has performed well. Especially against the teams higher up the table.
Stoke away defence
The Stoke defence therefore are susceptible to a hammering from a top 4 challenging side. Are Leicester that? Stoke are far better against the lower placed teams
THE FFGEEK CHOICE AND SUMMARY
I need to have a serious think about what I’m going to do. At the moment I haven’t ruled out most players. I’m seriously considering Alonso even. I will possibly go with Lukaku despite the stats. If I had Costa I would go with Costa.
Certainly looking at all the stats Costa is the natural choice. The only negative is the Big Sam Palace defence. However it’s only been tested away once against a top 4 challenging team and that was in a 2-0 loss to Arsenal. I know Big Sam thinks he can turn water into wine but I’m a little sceptical
Lukaku has done well against the top 4 defences with a 50% return rate. Liverpool though have been good at home against all sides. Too much seems to have been made of the calamitous Swansea game.
Vardy depends on whether he really is a man transformed. The Stoke defence will sit back and deny him space. However they are vulnerable to a thrashing from a higher placed side. Are Leicester that? Stoke are better against the lower placed teams
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