FANTASY PREMIER LEAGUE CAPTAIN CHOICE GW30


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Here’s our fantasy premier league captain choice GW30 article where we look at a number of  ways of assessing the best captain pick for the gameweek. As usual we look at the fixtures, the bookies odds, the FPL advice site polls, any of the top 10 FPL managers we can find, our captain metrics table and the FFGeek choice.

FANTASY PREMIER LEAGUE CAPTAIN CHOICE GW30

THE FIXTURES

Here’s the fixtures for GW30:

The bookies see 4 teams as favourites with the following win odds for £1 invested. It’s likely the fantasy premier league captain choice GW30 will come from one of those teams. However, this is a week unlike no other

Chelsea (CPAL h ) at £1. 29 – Costa and Hazard

Man Utd (WBA h ) at £1.33 – team selection too difficult

Southampton  (Bournemouth h) at £1.62  – Tadic

Spurs  (Burnley A) – at £1.62 – Alli, Eriksen and Son

THE BOOKIES ODDS




Here we look at one of the bookies anytime goal scoring odds. I’ve tried to only put players in who have some gametime security. It’s the return for £1 invested. Odds are as of Thursday evening and remember they assume the player starts and don’t count assist potential.

£1.66 – Costa

£ 2.00 – Hazard

£2.10 – Aguero

£2.29 – Son HM

£2.40 – Pedro

£2.50 – Coutinho, Firmino, Mane, Deeney, Sanchez

£2.62 – Vardy, Tadic, Redmond

£2.75 – Lukaku

THE FPL ADVICE SITE POLLS.

Firstly here’s the FFGeek poll:

fantasy premier league captain choice GW30 - ffgeek captain poll

Here’s the summary of the other main advice polls:

There’s no doubt that Costa is the most popular pick but after that it’s not clear

It’s worth noting that site 1 is the site with the most traffic and probably replicates the top 10k FPL managers more than any other site

TOP 10 FPL MANAGERS AND BEST SOCIAL MEDIA ACCOUNTS

No real intelligence at this stage on what people are doing

USING VARIOUS MEASURES

This is the metrics table assessing different ways of judging the fantasy premier league captain choice GW29

fantasy premier league captain choice GW30 - metric summary

So Costa clearly first choice.  Then Sanchez and Lukaku with 3 choices.

SOME STATS

I’m going to concentrate on Costa, Lukaku and Vardy

fantasy premier league captain choice GW30 - player ranking stats comparison

Here’s the squawka comparison:

fantasy premier league captain choice GW30 - squawka comparison

Costa is the more consistent.  Lukaku still consistent but more explosive.  Vardy someway behind the other 2.  Underlying stats between Lukaku and Costa are similar.  What Lukaku loses in shot volume he makes up for in accuracy.

Costa Home Stats

fantasy premier league captain choice GW30 - Costa home stats

So some sort of return against every lower placed team.  No double digit returns though

Lukaku away stats

fantasy premier league captain choice GW30 Lukaku away stats

So not as good as Costa and his record against the higher placed teams sees him score in 50% of games which is pretty good to be fair.

Vardy home stats

There’s only been 2 home matches since Shakespeare took over

fantasy premier league captain choice GW30 - Vardy home stats

Crystal Palace away defence

So since Allardyce took over, only 1 conceded in the last 3.  However Arsenal are the only top 4 team played

Liverpool home defence

So for all the criticism levelled at it the Liverpool home defence has performed well.  Especially against the teams higher up the table.

Stoke away defence

The Stoke defence therefore are susceptible to a hammering from a top 4 challenging side.  Are Leicester that? Stoke are far better against the lower placed teams

THE FFGEEK CHOICE AND SUMMARY




I need to have a serious think about what I’m going to do.  At the moment I haven’t ruled out most players.  I’m seriously considering Alonso even.  I will possibly go with Lukaku despite the stats.  If I had Costa I would go with Costa.

Certainly looking at all the stats Costa is the natural choice.  The only negative is the Big Sam Palace defence.  However it’s only been tested away once against a top 4 challenging team and that was in a 2-0 loss to Arsenal.  I know Big Sam thinks he can turn water into wine but I’m a little sceptical

Lukaku has done well against the top 4 defences with a 50% return rate.  Liverpool though have been good at home against all sides.  Too much seems to have been made of the calamitous Swansea game.

Vardy depends on whether he really is a man transformed.  The Stoke defence will sit back and deny him space.  However they are vulnerable to a thrashing from a higher placed side.  Are Leicester that?  Stoke are better against the lower placed teams

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6 thoughts on “FANTASY PREMIER LEAGUE CAPTAIN CHOICE GW30”

  1. My punt this week is on Jamie Vardy. Not sold on Lukaku even scoring, regardless of the sort of form he is currently in. Not high on Sanchez at City either. Polls I have seen show Lukaku leading the way, but I am rolling with the Leicester boy for this week. Will be a nice differential if he hits.

  2. I’m risking Aguero, I would captain Deeney but his place at risk due to illness. SIggy in contention but I’m risking a rejuvenated City to smash the Gooners. I hope.

  3. Spent most of the week moving Captain between Lukaku and Augero, but with Evertons defensive issues, and the loss of Coleman in his attacking role i’ve moved it to Mane(who has played really well at home). No clear captain choice this week helped the decision (the whole Captain as a shield/sword)

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