Here’s our fantasy premier league captain choice GW31 article where we look at a number of ways of assessing the best captain pick for the gameweek. As usual we look at the fixtures, the bookies odds, the FPL advice site polls, any of the top 10 FPL managers we can find, our captain metrics table and the FFGeek choice.
FANTASY PREMIER LEAGUE CAPTAIN CHOICE GW31
Here’s the fixtures for GW31:
The bookies see 4 teams as favourites with the following win odds for £1 invested. It’s likely the fantasy premier league captain choice GW31 will come from one of those teams.
Liverpool (Bournemouth h ) at £1. 33 – Coutinho and Firmino
Arsenal (West Ham h ) at £1.36 – Sanchez
Leicester (Sunderland h) at £1.45 – Vardy and Mahrez
Man Utd (Everton H) – at £1.53 – Ibrahimovic
THE BOOKIES ODDS
Here we look at one of the bookies anytime goal scoring odds. I’ve tried to only put players in who have some gametime security. It’s the return for £1 invested. Odds are as of Monday evening and remember they assume the player starts and don’t count assist potential.
£1.72 – Sanchez, Walcott
£ 2.10 – Ibrahimovic, Coutinho, Firmino, Origi
£2.20 – Vardy
£2.40 – Mahrez and Abel Hernandez
£2.75 – Eriksen
£2.80 – Niang
THE FPL ADVICE SITE POLLS.
Firstly here’s the FFGeek poll:
Here’s the summary of the other main advice polls:
So Sanchez the popular pick
It’s worth noting that site 1 is the site with the most traffic and probably replicates the top 10k FPL managers more than any other site
TOP 10 FPL MANAGERS AND BEST SOCIAL MEDIA ACCOUNTS
The 1 top FPL manager I have access to has gone Sanchez. Otherwise hard to determine at this stage
USING VARIOUS MEASURES
This is the metrics table assessing different ways of judging the fantasy premier league captain choice GW31
The short turnaround means that I have been unable to do the Player Rankings tables which is needed for this
I’m going to concentrate on Sanchez and Ibrahimovic
Here’s the squawka comparison:
The first thing you have to remember is that some of these stats are with Sanchez as a forward some of these are with him as an LAM which distorts them a bit. On actual stats, Sanchez is well ahead on underlying it’s a bit more mixed. Ibra has more shots in the area but a slightly less accuracy stat. Sanchez has more key passes
Sanchez home stats
So an 86% consistency rate at home against the lower placed sides in grey is a good sign. Only 2 double digit returns though against those sides
Ibrahimovic home stats
So not as good as Sanchez overall and his record against the higher placed teams sees him score in 50% of games which is pretty good to be fair.
West Ham away defence
So on 5 of the 6 occasions they’ve faced the top 4 challenging teams they’ve conceded at least 2 goals.
Everton away defence
So interestingly the Everton defence hasn’t got a great record against the top 4 challenging teams
THE FFGEEK CHOICE AND SUMMARY
So from my point of view I’m probably going to transfer in Sanchez and Captain him. He’s needed for the DGW he will have and is dangerous against lower placed teams.
The bookies have Sanchez as far bigger favourite than Ibra and the FPL advice site polls back that up. He’s also got far better stats and probably marginally better underlying stats. However that is confused by the mixture of striker and LAM positions. He certainly faces the worse defence although Everton have not been too clever against the top 4 challenging sides. Ibra has the advantage not in the stats of being fresh after a premier league and international break rest.
Vardy is certainly an interesting one. He’s returned a goal or assist in all 4 of the games since Shakespeare became manager and he’s up against one of the worst defences in the league. Coutinho against Bournemouth also is another interesting one. At home against a poor defence. Coutinho hasn’t performed as well when the front 3 has been interrupted. The other negatives are that Liverpool have sometimes struggled against buses parked and also they share out the points quite far and wide.
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