FANTASY PREMIER LEAGUE CAPTAIN CHOICE GW31


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Here’s our fantasy premier league captain choice GW31 article where we look at a number of ways of assessing the best captain pick for the gameweek. As usual we look at the fixtures, the bookies odds, the FPL advice site polls, any of the top 10 FPL managers we can find, our captain metrics table and the FFGeek choice.

FANTASY PREMIER LEAGUE CAPTAIN CHOICE GW31

THE FIXTURES

Here’s the fixtures for GW31:

 fantasy premier league captain choice GW31 - gw31 fixtures

The bookies see 4 teams as favourites with the following win odds for £1 invested. It’s likely the fantasy premier league captain choice GW31 will come from one of those teams.

Liverpool (Bournemouth h ) at £1. 33 – Coutinho and Firmino

Arsenal (West Ham h ) at £1.36 – Sanchez

Leicester  (Sunderland h) at £1.45 – Vardy and Mahrez

Man Utd (Everton  H) – at £1.53 – Ibrahimovic

THE BOOKIES ODDS




Here we look at one of the bookies anytime goal scoring odds. I’ve tried to only put players in who have some gametime security. It’s the return for £1 invested. Odds are as of Monday evening and remember they assume the player starts and don’t count assist potential.

£1.72 – Sanchez, Walcott

£ 2.10 – Ibrahimovic, Coutinho, Firmino, Origi

£2.20 – Vardy

£2.40 – Mahrez and Abel Hernandez

£2.75 – Eriksen

£2.80 – Niang

THE FPL ADVICE SITE POLLS.

Firstly here’s the FFGeek poll:

fantasy premier league captain choice GW31. FFGeek Captain Poll result

Here’s the summary of the other main advice polls:

fantasy premier league captain choice GW31. FPL advice sites summary

So Sanchez the popular pick

It’s worth noting that site 1 is the site with the most traffic and probably replicates the top 10k FPL managers more than any other site

TOP 10 FPL MANAGERS AND BEST SOCIAL MEDIA ACCOUNTS

The 1 top FPL manager I have access to has gone Sanchez.  Otherwise hard to determine at this stage

USING VARIOUS MEASURES

This is the metrics table assessing different ways of judging the fantasy premier league captain choice GW31

The short turnaround means that I have been unable to do the Player Rankings tables which is needed for this

SOME STATS




I’m going to concentrate on Sanchez and Ibrahimovic

fantasy premier league captain choice GW31 - Sanchez vs Ibra stats

Here’s the squawka comparison:

fantasy premier league captain choice GW31. Squawka comparison. Zlatan v Sanchez

The first thing you have to remember is that some of these stats are with Sanchez as a forward some of these are with him as an LAM which distorts them a bit.  On actual stats, Sanchez is well ahead on underlying it’s a bit more mixed.  Ibra has more shots in the area but a slightly less accuracy stat.  Sanchez has more key passes

Sanchez home stats

fantasy premier league captain choice GW31 - sanchez home stats

So an 86% consistency rate at home against the lower placed sides in grey is a good sign.  Only 2 double digit returns though against those sides

Ibrahimovic home stats

fantasy premier league captain choice GW31 - Ibra home stats

So not as good as Sanchez overall and his record against the higher placed teams sees him score in 50% of games which is pretty good to be fair.

West Ham away defence

fantasy premier league captain choice GW31. West Ham home defence stats

So on 5 of the 6 occasions they’ve faced the top 4 challenging teams they’ve conceded at least 2 goals.

Everton away defence

fantasy premier league captain choice GW31. Everton defence away stats

So interestingly the Everton defence hasn’t got a great record against the top 4 challenging teams

THE FFGEEK CHOICE AND SUMMARY

So from my point of view I’m probably going to transfer in Sanchez and Captain him.  He’s needed for the DGW he will have and is dangerous against lower placed teams.

The bookies have Sanchez as far bigger favourite than Ibra and the FPL advice site polls back that up.  He’s also got far better stats and probably marginally better underlying stats.  However that is confused by the mixture of striker and LAM positions.  He certainly faces the worse defence although Everton have not been too clever against the top 4 challenging sides.  Ibra has the advantage not in the stats of being fresh after a premier league and international break rest.

Vardy is certainly an interesting one.  He’s returned a goal or assist in all 4 of the games since Shakespeare became manager and he’s up against one of the worst defences in the league.  Coutinho against Bournemouth also is another interesting one.  At home against a poor defence.  Coutinho hasn’t performed as well when the front 3 has been interrupted.  The other negatives are that Liverpool have sometimes struggled against buses parked and also they share out the points quite far and wide.

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