Fantasy premier league captain choice GW33


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Here’s our fantasy premier league captain choice GW33 article where we look at a number of ways of assessing the best captain pick for the gameweek. As usual we look at the fixtures, the bookies odds, the FPL advice site polls, any of the top 10 FPL managers we can find and the FFGeek choice.

Fantasy premier league captain choice GW33

THE FIXTURES

Here’s the fixtures for GW33:

 Here’s our fantasy premier league captain choice GW21 article where we look at various ways of assessing the best captain pick for the upcoming gameweek

The bookies see 3 teams as favourites with the following win odds for £1 invested. It’s likely the fantasy premier league captain choice GW33 will come from one of those teams.

Spurs (Bournemouth H ) at £1. 22 – Kane, Alli and Eriksen

Everton (Burnley H ) at £1.44 – Lukaku

Arsenal (Middlesborough A) at £1.57 – Sanchez

THE BOOKIES ODDS

Here we look at one of the bookies anytime goal scoring odds. I’ve tried to only put players in who have some gametime security. It’s the return for £1 invested. Odds are as of Saturday morning and remember they assume the player starts and don’t count assist potential.




£1.61 – Kane

£ 1.75 – Lukaku

£1.83 – Son HM

£1.91 – Aguero

£1.95 – Alli and Sanchez

£2.30 – Defoe, Origi, Firmino and Carroll

£2.40 – Benteke and Ibrahimovic

£2.50 – Walcott

THE FPL ADVICE SITE POLLS.

It’s worth noting here that the FFGeek poll asks who you are going to appoint as captain to reflect the reality of the spread of captain choices. Others ask who is the best captain. Others just say captain poll and leave the question up to you.

Firstly here’s the FFGeek poll:

 Fantasy premier league captain choice GW33

Here’s the summary of the other main advice polls:

 Fantasy premier league captain choice GW33

It’s worth noting that site 1 is the site with the most traffic

USING VARIOUS MEASURES

This is the metrics table assessing different ways of judging the fantasy premier league captain choice GW33

 Fantasy premier league captain choice GW33

So Kane leads that marginally from 4 places to Lukaku’s 3.  Hazard and Sanchez are there twice.

SQUAWKA COMPARISON

 Fantasy premier league captain choice GW33

Very little between them on the underlying stats front

SOME STATS

Core stats

 Fantasy premier league captain choice GW33

Nothing between them except maybe Kane has pens.

Against the lower placed teams at home

Here’s a comparison between  against the bottom teams.  I’ve included Burnley due to their perceived away record and the fact that they’re Everton’s opponent

The table shows the FPL points gained against various sides.




 Fantasy premier league captain choice GW33

So Lukaku clearly the better.

The defences against the top placed sides away

 Fantasy premier league captain choice GW33

So clearly Bournemouth are the worse defence.

FFGEEK CHOICE AND SUMMARY

Even as I’m writing this with just over an hour to go I’m still wavering

So in summary.  The bookies back Kane.  Interestingly they also back him for the hat trick far more at £11 vs Lukaku’s £17.

The FPL poll sites go for Lukaku and if you’re playing defensively he’s the higher owned player and more likely to do damage if you get it wrong

My metrics back Kane but only slightly.

There’s virtually nothing between them in actual stats this season and underlying stats over the season

Lukaku beats Kane comprehensively against the lower placed teams.

However the Bournemouth defence is far worse than the Burnley defence away against the top sides.  Burnley have only conceded 3 or more once against the top sides.  Bournemouth 4.

Kane has pens but just coming back from injury has minutes risk

Does any of this help?  I’m tempted to toss a coin.

Lukaku is probably the safer rank choice

I’m going to stick with Kane

Good luck with whatever your choice is

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