Here’s our fantasy premier league captain choice GW33 article where we look at a number of ways of assessing the best captain pick for the gameweek. As usual we look at the fixtures, the bookies odds, the FPL advice site polls, any of the top 10 FPL managers we can find and the FFGeek choice.
Fantasy premier league captain choice GW33
Here’s the fixtures for GW33:
The bookies see 3 teams as favourites with the following win odds for £1 invested. It’s likely the fantasy premier league captain choice GW33 will come from one of those teams.
Spurs (Bournemouth H ) at £1. 22 – Kane, Alli and Eriksen
Everton (Burnley H ) at £1.44 – Lukaku
Arsenal (Middlesborough A) at £1.57 – Sanchez
THE BOOKIES ODDS
Here we look at one of the bookies anytime goal scoring odds. I’ve tried to only put players in who have some gametime security. It’s the return for £1 invested. Odds are as of Saturday morning and remember they assume the player starts and don’t count assist potential.
£1.61 – Kane
£ 1.75 – Lukaku
£1.83 – Son HM
£1.91 – Aguero
£1.95 – Alli and Sanchez
£2.30 – Defoe, Origi, Firmino and Carroll
£2.40 – Benteke and Ibrahimovic
£2.50 – Walcott
THE FPL ADVICE SITE POLLS.
It’s worth noting here that the FFGeek poll asks who you are going to appoint as captain to reflect the reality of the spread of captain choices. Others ask who is the best captain. Others just say captain poll and leave the question up to you.
Firstly here’s the FFGeek poll:
Here’s the summary of the other main advice polls:
It’s worth noting that site 1 is the site with the most traffic
USING VARIOUS MEASURES
This is the metrics table assessing different ways of judging the fantasy premier league captain choice GW33
So Kane leads that marginally from 4 places to Lukaku’s 3. Hazard and Sanchez are there twice.
Very little between them on the underlying stats front
Nothing between them except maybe Kane has pens.
Against the lower placed teams at home
Here’s a comparison between against the bottom teams. I’ve included Burnley due to their perceived away record and the fact that they’re Everton’s opponent
The table shows the FPL points gained against various sides.
So Lukaku clearly the better.
The defences against the top placed sides away
So clearly Bournemouth are the worse defence.
FFGEEK CHOICE AND SUMMARY
Even as I’m writing this with just over an hour to go I’m still wavering
So in summary. The bookies back Kane. Interestingly they also back him for the hat trick far more at £11 vs Lukaku’s £17.
The FPL poll sites go for Lukaku and if you’re playing defensively he’s the higher owned player and more likely to do damage if you get it wrong
My metrics back Kane but only slightly.
There’s virtually nothing between them in actual stats this season and underlying stats over the season
Lukaku beats Kane comprehensively against the lower placed teams.
However the Bournemouth defence is far worse than the Burnley defence away against the top sides. Burnley have only conceded 3 or more once against the top sides. Bournemouth 4.
Kane has pens but just coming back from injury has minutes risk
Does any of this help? I’m tempted to toss a coin.
Lukaku is probably the safer rank choice
I’m going to stick with Kane
Good luck with whatever your choice is
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