fantasy premier league captain choice GW35

Here’s our fantasy premier league captain choice GW35 article where we look at a number of ways of assessing the best captain pick for the gameweek. As usual we look at the fixtures, the bookies odds, the FPL advice site polls and the FFGeek choice.

FANTASY PREMIER LEAGUE CAPTAIN CHOICE GW35

There’s  summary at the end if all the analysis bores you.  I won’t be offended!

THE FIXTURES

Here’s the fixtures for GW35:

Here’s the 3 double gameweek teams with their odds to win with £1 invested:

Man City (Middlesboro A ) – £1.28

Man Utd (Swansea H) – £1.41

Liverpool (Watford A) – £1.50

Southampton (Hull H) – £1.61

THE BOOKIES ODDS

Here we look at one of the bookies anytime goal scoring odds for the attacking players. I’ve tried to only put players in who have some gametime security. It’s the return for £1 invested. Odds are as of Saturday morning and remember they assume the player starts and don’t count assist potential.

£1.61 – Aguero

£1.91 – Kane

£2.00 – Gabbiadini

£2.05 – Costa, Rooney

£2.10 – Defoe

£2.15 – Origi, Firmino

£2.20 – Benteke,

£2.30 – Josh King, Sane, Alli, Coutinho

£2.40 – Hazard

£2.45 – Sanchez

£2.50 – Lukaku

I’ve not included Man Utd players Rashford, Mkhitaryan and Martial due to gametime risk.  As Rooney didn’t play on Thursday I’ve included him.  The same for Gabriel Jesus

THE FPL ADVICE SITE POLLS

The FFGeek poll first.  It’s worth noting it was only set on Friday morning after the games ended so full information was available on voting.  It does mean there are limited numbers of votes.  I don’t believe the other sites did this

Firstly here’s the FFGeek poll.

So couldn’t be closer between the top 3

Here’s the summary of the other main advice polls.

It’s worth noting that site 1 is the site with the most traffic

So no consensus

CAPTAIN METRICS

Here’s where we lineup detailed stats:

Slight re work here due to the player ranking tables.  No consensus there either with Kane getting 3 places and Aguero also getting 3.  Coutinho got 2.

DETAILED PLAYER AND DEFENCE STATS

Here were going to look at the players in more detail and the defences they will meet.  We will focus on Aguero, Gabbiadini and Kane

Basic stats

So Kane has the best stats of these 3 I would say.

Squawka underlying stats

So Aguero the best here although Gabbiadini gives him a close run, albeit on far less data

Aguero detail

Here’s Aguero away against the bottom sides:

So very good.  Returned in every game and double figures in half of them

Here’s the Middlesboro defence at home against the top sides.  Unfortunately only 1 game was with Agnew in charge.  The rest were with the very defensively minded Karanka in charge

So only 1.5 goals per game conceded which is good but only 1 game was with Agnew in charge

Kane detail

So Kane’s FPL points at home against the top 7

So not that great.  You could argue that Arsenal’s defence is the worst of the top 7 though

Arsenal’s score’s away to the top 7

2 goals per game conceded.  This is bad

Gabbiadini detail

Here’s his record at home against the lowest sides.  As there’s very little data I’ve included Southamptons scores

So very little data but the scoring isn’t that helpful

Here’s Hull’s record away against the middle placed teams.  I’ve marked Silva as manager vs Phelan

So makes terrible reading even with the new manager

SUMMARY AND FFGEEK CHOICE

Starting with gametime.  Aguero played Thursday and could lose minutes off Jesus.  Gabbiadini has had a rest since Monday but could lose minutes off Long or Rodriguez

The bookies overwhelmingly favour Aguero with Kane quite a bit back and Gabbiadini a little behind him.

The polls are all over the place although the one with the most traffic favours Gabbiadini

My metrics favour Kane and Aguero equally.

Basic stats favour Kane over the season but form is equal.  Gabbiadini has good stats but limited data and a drop off of returns in the last 4.

Underlying stats favour Aguero heavily.

The detailed analysis sees Aguero performing well although the Boro defence has done ok against the top sides but Agnew has only been in charge of 1 of these games.  He’s less defensive minded than Karanka was and Boro have to win remember.

Kane’s record at home to the top sides isn’t that great but that’s compensated for by the Arsenal defence being quite bad away.  Has the 3 at the back fixed that?  Koscielny maybe out.

While there’s only 1 days data for Gabbiadini at home to the bottom side he did get 7 points.  Southampton haven’t been that impressive against the bottom sides though.  Hull are truly awful away which is the compensation there.  Often conceding 3 goals.

So what does this mean.  There’s no clarity unfortunately.

The FFGeek choice

If I had him I’d probably go for Aguero.  I don’t though and can’t make up my mind between Gabbiadini and Kane.  Gabby has the better fixture but little data to go on and a questionable Southampton side with minutes risk.

Kane has a tougher fixture but fantastic form even if his record against top sides is ordinary.  He is against a side that has conceded badly  against the top sides

Kane has higher ownership so would probably hurt more if he runs riot

I may change to Kane but will tweet if I do

Good luck

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