FANTASY PREMIER LEAGUE CAPTAIN CHOICE GW4


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Here’s our fantasy premier league captain choice GW4 article where we look at various ways of assessing the best captain pick for the gameweek. As usual we look at the fixtures, the bookies odds, the FPL advice site polls, any of the top 10 FPL managers we can find and the FFGeek choice.  We also analyse the leading options and the defences they face

FANTASY PREMIER LEAGUE CAPTAIN CHOICE GW4

THE FIXTURES

fpl-gw4fixtures

The bookies rate Arsenal, Chelsea, Liverpool, Spurs and West Ham as the most likely winners

THE BOOKIES ODDS

Here we look at one of the bookies anytime goal scoring odds. I’ve tried to only put players in who have some gametime security. It’s the return for £1 invested.  Odds are as of Saturday morning

£2.00 – Costa

£2.05 – Giroud

£2.25 – Hazard

£2.30 – Kane, Lukaku

£2.37 – Ibrahimovic

£2.40 – Sanchez, Firmino

£2.50 – Zaza

THE FPL ADVICE POLLS.

Firstly here’s the FFGeek poll:

fpl-gw4captainpollffgeek

So a 3 way choice with Hazard way ahead of Sanchez and Ibrahimovic

Here’s a few of the others FPL advice sites summaries. It’s worth noting that site 1 is the site with the most traffic and probably replicates the top 10k FPL managers more than any other site

fpl-gw4captainpollsummary

TOP 10 FPL MANAGERS

I only have access to 2 of the top 10 FPL managers I’m following. They have both gone for  Hazard

I’ve also done a good round of the forums, sites and social media and Hazard seems the choice of most of the FPL managers who have a good history

ANALYSIS

Here’s a bit more detail on the 3 top choices

The stats

First lets look at their “ones to watch” stats

fpl-gw4captain12wstats

Hard to take too much from last season.  Hazard is a man transformed.  Ibra was in a very inferior league.

This season Hazard and Ibra have started well consistently and Sanchez just come through in the last game.  If we look behind the returns at the underlying stats Hazard is way ahead with Sanchez and Ibra at similar levels.

Hazard here is the winner for me through consistency, form and underlying stats

The defences they face

Can’t really use any of last years stats here.  Chelsea face a Swansea defence with their leader Ash Williams taken out.  That is a massive loss.

Southampton have a new manager in place and it’s too early to think that the defence is the same one that the defensive genius that was Koeman marshalled.

Man City have a new manager with a new philosophy.

So there’s only this years stats to look at which is fairly limiting.

Interestingly in 3 games none of them have covered themselves in glory and that surprisingly includes Man City who have conceded 3 goals.  Southampton and Swansea have both conceded 4.  What is stark when you go behind the numbers is that the Swansea defence is by far the worst.  Whats even more shocking is that they play 2 of what could be the worst attacking teams in those games.  Southampton surprisingly have the best underlying stats of the 3.  Here’s their results so far

Southampton (Southampton goals first)

WAT (H) 1 – 1
MUN (A) 0-2
SUN (H) 1 – 1

Swansea

BUR (A) 1-0
HUL (H) 0-2
LEI (A) 1-2

Man City

SUN (H) 2 – 1
STK (A) 4 – 1
WHU (H) 3 – 1

So in my mind Hazard easily has the worst defence to face

THE FFGEEK CHOICE

 

So from my point of view Hazard is the best choice.  Sanchez has some gametime risk being fairly late back from South America after playing 2 games.  He also has PSG in the Champions League.  Wenger has a mass of attacking midfielders to choose from and even if he starts he could be a minutes risk.  History doesn’t suggest this though.  Ibrahimovic has Man City as opposition and may be a victim of a Mourinho not wanting to lose approach. Despite their ordinary defensive start Man City has to be the hardest opposition.  Apparently though there is a lot of Pep dislike from Ibrahimovic and that may give him extra motivation.  Hazard has a reputation of being a homer only and their are stats to back this up.  However he is facing the worst defence.

Hazard it is for me.

Good Luck!

 

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8 thoughts on “FANTASY PREMIER LEAGUE CAPTAIN CHOICE GW4”

  1. Great article and good luck! I’m majorly struggling with the fact i keep changing my team as I’ve used my WC. I wanted Payet but Im just not sure if hes too much for a risk. Whqt you think of this guys?????

    Cech (foster)

    Williams McAuley Valencia Collins (stones)

    Antonio Hazard c Ozil Barkley (capoue)

    Costa Ibra (diamonde)

  2. Please RTM, and help in last choice:
    X – X
    Shaw – Valencia – McAuley – Amat – X
    Sanchez – Hazard – Sterling – Capoue – X
    Ibra – Costa – X

    Choice:
    Cech – Heaton
    Williams
    some mid for 4,5 (Flechter/Romeu/Hojbjerg)
    Rondon

    Or

    Foster – Heaton (rotation)
    Baines
    Barry
    Negredo

    Both 0 ITB

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