fantasy premier league captain gameweek 32 who to pick?

Fantasy Premier League

here’s the fantasy premier league captain gameweek 32 who to pick article?

 Generally my choice is based on home games for quality players against lower table opposition so I’m only considering players from 2 games Liverpool v West Ham and Chelsea v Sunderland

Suarez (West Ham H)

So lets set the scene before we look at his home record against lower table opposition ie what I call captain qualifying opposition.  His last 5 starts  have returned 50 points.  He’s the 2nd overall forward points scorer behind RVP but leading the underlying stats or 2nd in every category.  Also the  Sturridge fall out seems to have at least for the moment kept him the most furtherest forward player which means he gets the tap ins as well as the great goals.  Its possible that Sturridge could play today after being dropped as possibly the benching was just a wake up call rather than a permanent thing.  This has reduced Suarez’s effectiveness a little although they seem to swap positions alot rather than just Suarez playing behind Sturridge.  In addition, in a reasonable amount of games Suarez still had the most forward average position.  So lets look at his home record against lower table opposition:

Stoke H  2 points

Reading H  5 points

Newcastle H  9 points

Wigan H   11 points

Southampton H   1 point

Aston Villa H  1 point

Fulham H  8 points

Sunderland H  16 points

Norwich H  9 points

WBA H  1 point

Swansea H  14 points

So he’s returned in 7/11 (64%) of qualifying captain games and returned in 4 of his last 6 qualifying captain games.  He’s had double digit returns in 3/11 (27%) .  These are pretty impressive stats.

So what about West Ham?  Here’s there results away to what I call the elite teams

Spurs A lost 1-3

Man Utd A lost 0-1

Arsenal A lost 1-5

Chelsea A lost 0-2

So not good but not hopeless at an average of 2.75 goals per game conceded with 50%  at 3 or over.  Big Sams parking the bus tactics have avoided at least 2 hammerings. That shows up in the fact that over the season they are a relatively respectable 12th  in goals conceded in all away games.

So in summary based on past history you have a 64% chance of Suarez returning and 27% chance of it being double digits with a 50% chance of West Ham conceding 3 goals or more

Hazard (Sunderland H)

Having not started on Thursday and not started in GW31 you’ve got to think he will start this week.  The dark cloud hanging over this is a trip to Rubin Kazan on Thursday where at least they have a healthy, if not insurmountable lead.  Unfortunately nothing, except there will be rotation, is predictable with Rafa.  So putting that aside lets look at his record, when starting, against lower table opposition at home ie what I call captain qualifying opposition:

Reading H  11 points

Newcastle H  13 points

Stoke H  3 points

Norwich H  9 points

Fulham H  3 points

Aston Villa H  13 points

Southampton  H  10 points

Wigan H  13 points

WBA H  2 points

West Ham H 14 points

So he’s returned in 7/10 (70%) of qualifying captain games and returned in 4 of his last 6 qualifying captain games.  He’s had double digit returns in an incredible 6/10 (60%) of these games.  These are amazing flat track bully stats and exactly what you are looking for in your captain choice.

So what about Sunderland?  Here’s there results away to what I call the elite teams:

Arsenal A – draw 0-0

Manchester City A – lost 0-3

Everton A  lost – 1-2

Man Utd A lost 1-3

Liverpool A lost 0-3

So pretty hopeless at an average of 2.2 goals per game which is flattering as the Arsenal game on opening day was a complete battering and should have been 3-0 easily.  They conceded  3 or more in 3/5 (60% of games).    The Di Canio effect is the unknown.  However the noises coming from him tend to suggest he will take a more attacking approach (to be honest that wouldn’t be difficult compared to the  negativity of the last regime) which may suit Chelsea more and Hazard even more as he is incredibly effective on the break .   Those negative tactics have seen Sunderland ranked a relatively respectable 11 in goals conceded although the underlying shooting stats away are one of the worst in fantasy premier league and goals are only mitigated due to the excellent goalkeeper.

So in summary based on past history you have a 70% chance of Hazard returning and 60% chance of it being double digits with a 60% chance of Sunderland  conceding 3 goals or more

Ba (Sunderland H)

Will surely start as he didn’t play on Thursday as he’s ineligible for the Europa league and therefore wont be playing this Thursday.  Rotation has diminished his fantasy premier league prospects  from being 2nd only to RVP when at Newcastle  and this is compounded by the fact that he tends to get the nod for the more difficult games given Torres “difficulties” this year shall we say.  This makes it difficult to select him after this week but if you have a free transfer as you’re using your WC in GW33 then he’s worth looking at.

Lets look at his home form against captain qualifying teams since joining Chelsea:

Southampton H  7 points

WBA H  9 points

West Ham H 2 points

So not really enough data to make a proper assessment on but anyway lets have a crack, he’s returned in 2/3 (66%) of qualifying captain games and returned in 2 of his last 3 qualifying captain games.  He’s had double digit returns  0/3 (0%) of these games.

We’ve already covered the Sunderland defence above

So in summary based on past history you have a 66% chance of Ba  returning and 0% chance of it being double digits with a 60% chance of Sunderland  conceding 3 goals or more

 

 Summary

Here’s a table to make the comparison easier:

 

StatSuarezHazard Demba Ba
 % Chance of returning season64%70%67%
 % chance of returning last 6 starts 67%67%N/A
 % chance of double digit returns 27%60%0%
 % chance of opposition conceding 3 goals 50%60%60%

 

So looking at that it has to be Hazard, he is just the flat track bully you want with the captains armband.  The only negative is will he start? Every rational thought says he should but rational Rafa isn’t.  Unfortunately only Rafa knows if he will start and since he isn’t answering my calls, texts, e mails, facebook and twitter messages on the subject then its remains a risk. Unfortunately with midfielders they are prone to that 5 minute substitutions and 1 pointers.

That risk is why I’m playing safe and sticking with Suarez who will surely start with the only cloud being the Sturridge effect.  If you’re desperate to catch people in your mini league and are willing to take the risk then Hazard is a good punt.  He’s also owned by 21% of players (probably many who have stopped playing given his early season form) and therefore  him being successful may improve your position significantly.

It’s impossible to think that Ba wont start and facing such inept CB’s as Bramble and  O’Shea then he could really hit the jackpot.  However in the longer term he’s too rotation prone for your team so only risk him if you are using your WC in gameweek 33 and can then transfer him out

Thats it I hope you found that helpful.  Good luck with your fantasy premier league captain gameweek 32 pick

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