Background 

Just as a general point for those coming to the site for the first time.   I did alot of research on where the 10 point plus fantasy premier league attacking scores came from and the vast majority came from the top 4 challenging teams playing the potentially relegation threatened teams.  Now that may sound like common sense and it is how I look at where the captain choices should come from.   The theory is simple, you get more shots against the poorer teams.  What was interesting is that there wasn’t much variance between the home fixture and the away fixture.  The opposition was key.  However at the moment Suarez and Sturridge are breaking all the rules and is a form option irrespective of the opposition.

Here’s the best fixtures:

1. Hull v Man City

2.  Everton v Cardiff

3.  Villa v Chelsea

I’ve not gone for anyone from the Hull v Man City game.  Its a combination of uncertainty over the Aguero injury and Hull’s home record.  From the Everton game I’ve gone for Lukaku and Chelsea Hazard.

Hazard (Villa away )

• Will he start?

Started all premier league games except 1.  2 important games coming up against Galatasary and Arsenal but should start given his form and impact for Chelsea

• How consistent is he generally  and  away?

Not that consistent but has the potential to score big.  Overall 13 goals 10 assists.   Returned in 14 of 28 games ie 50% .  Away it’s 4 goals and 5 assists so much better at home.   Returned in 6/13 games away ie 46%

• How has he performed against good opposition away

Good.  Returned against Fulham, Sunderland, West Ham and Norwich away but not WBA

• Whats his recent form like

Mixed. 3 returns in his last 7 but they were 21 10 and 9 point hauls.  Has looked superb in a lot of games though even when not returning.

Here’s his last 5 away games:

SOU(A) 3-0  1 assist
HUL(A) 2-0  1 goal
MCI(A) 1-0
WBA(A) 1-1
FUL(A) 3-1   2 assists

No really big returns away though. 3 of his 8 10 plus point hauls have been away so he can do it.

• Whats his underlying stats like

Only Silva has better overall underlying shooting and creating chances stats.

• Whats the opposition defence like

Poor.  Only Cardiff and Fulham have conceded more goals at home.  Only Fulham  have conceded more than 1 goal on the more than 8 occaisions that Villa have.  Here’s their last 5 home results.

SWA(H) 1-1
ARS(H) 1-2
WBA(H) 4-3
WHU(H) 0-2
NOR(H) 4-1

With Bertrand inelgible they have no strong defensive LB and Bacuna is also a very attacking RB.  Whatever flank he pops up on he’s going to have  an ordinary FB to face.

• Is he an option? 

He is in great form and can score big but there’s always a risk that he wont return.  It just depends on how much risk you want to take.  Will take pens if Lampard isn’t on the pitch

Lukaku ( Cardiff  home)

• Will he start?

Just back from injury but started against Arsenal in the cup so expect him to start

• How consistent is he generally  and  at home?

Good.  Overall  10 goals 6 assists.   Returned in 13 out of 21 games ie  62% .   7 goals and 3 assists at home in 9 games.  Returned in 7/9 games at home.

• How has he performed against poor opposition at  home

Good.  Returned against Norwich, Fulham, Stoke and Newcastle but not Sunderland and Hull

• Whats his recent form like

Here’s his last 5 home games

FUL(H) 4-1  1 goal
SUN(H) 0-1
SOU(H) 2-1    1 goal
NOR(H) 2-0   1 assist
WHU(H) 1-0  1 goal

So returned in 4/5 home games.  No big returns though and the opposition couldn’t have been any better.

• Whats his underlying stats like

Good shooting stats but not creating chances.  Not a particularly involved player.  Relies alot on movement

• Whats the opposition defence like

Only Stoke, Fulham and Norwich have conceded more away from home.  Only Norwich have conceded more than 1 goal away more times than Cardiffs 9

Here’s their last 5 away results

ARS(A) 0-2
MCI(A) 2-4
MUN(A) 0-2
SWA(A) 0-3
TOT(A) 0-1

So only a couple of real capitualtions and all against top 4 challenging teams apart from Swansea.  There should be a couple of goals in it though for Everton

• Is he an option? 

Good form, strong at home and against a poor defensive team.  All good omens as a captain choice. Lack of big hauls against poor opposition is the only question.

Suarez and Sturridge (Man Utd away)

Will they both start?

Yes no reason to think either will not start.   No game last week or midweek.

How consistent returners are they overall and away?

Suarez is  an 83 % returner overall.   Suarez has returned in 8/12 away games

Sturridge is an 83% returner overall. Sturridge has returned in 8/10  away games

How have they performed away against good opposition?

Suarez  has returned in 3 away games against Chelsea Spurs and Everton.  He blanked against Man City and Arsenal

Sturridge returned in the Everton game away but not Arsenal away

Whats their recent form like? 

Suarez has returned in 4 of his last 5 with 1 goal and 5 assists for a total of 31 points

Sturridge has returned in 4 of his last 5 with 5 goals and 3 assists for a total of 48 points

Suarez’s last 5 away games:

CHE(A) 1-2   1 assist
STK(A) 5-3  2 goals
WBA(A) 1-1  1 assist
FUL(A) 3-2
SOU(A) 3-0  1 goal and 2 assists

Sturridges last 5 away games:

EVE (A) 3-3   1 goal
STK(A) 5-3   1 goal 1 assist
WBA(A) 1-1  1 goal
FUL(A) 3-2  1 goal 2 assists
SOU(A) 3-0

Whats their underlying stats like?

Shooting stats wise Suarez is marginally better overall this season and on recent form despite the goal scoring differential.  Creating chances wise Suarez is streets ahead.  Suarez is generally has had the highest average position although some times less centrally than Sturridge.    Penalty area touches Suarez is miles ahead.  The average position has been a little less clear but not to the extent of Suarez shunted wide as you may think.

Whats the opposition defence like?

Good.  Only conceded 12 goals at home in 13 matches.  Have conceded more than 1 goal 4 times though.  3 consecutive clean sheets recently away from home.

Here’s their last 5 home games:

WHU(H) 3-1
TOT(H) 1-2
SWA(H) 2-0
CAR(H) 2-0
FUL(H) 2-2

With Vidic being phased out in Moyes words the defence definitely is lacking a leader and looked shaky with Smalling and Jones occupying it last week.

Are they options?

They are always options irrespective of the opposition.  Suarez showed his all round ability against Southampton with a goal and 2 assists proving any doubters wrong.  Sturridge is in relentless consistent goal scoring form and can never be discounted.

William Hill check

Here’s how William Hill see the anytime goal scorer odds market with all players at or under £2.00:

1.  £1.61 – Lukaku

2.  £1.80 – Aguero

3.  £2.00 –  Lambert, Rodriguez and  Eto’o

Hazard is £2.50.  Suarez is 2.20.  Sturridge is £2.50

Aguero won’t play and Eto’o is still a gametime risk as Torres could still make the squad and Ba scored twice last week.  Lambert and Rodriguez could be options but I’ve preferred to look at top 4 challenging teams

I hope that gives you some food for thought for your fantasy premier league captain choice.

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