Background

Just as a general point.   I did alot of research on where the 10 point plus fantasy premier league attacking scores came from and the vast majority came from the top 4 challenging teams playing the potentially relegation threatened teams.  Now that may sound like common sense and it is how I look at where the captain choices should come from.   The theory is simple, you get more shots against the poorer teams.  What was interesting is that there wasn’t much variance between the home fixture and the away fixture.  The opposition was key.

Options

Hazard (Palace home)

• Will he start?

This is the big question.  Played the whole game against Steaua and started last weekend. That would suggest a rest.  However Chelsea have a Capital one Cup game midweek so surely he will be rested for that instead.  Mourinho also can’t have ignored Palace’s defensive improvement.  Certainly his press conference suggests he will take it seriously.

•  How consistent is he generally and at home?

OK.  6 goals and 6 assists in 15 games overall.  40% overall return rate which isn’t great.  He’s returned in 3/6 at home which also isn’t great. He didn’t return against Hull Fulham and Man City at home

• How has he performed against poor opposition so far

OK.    Returned  against Villa, Cardiff and WBA but not Hull and Fulham.   These are 2 of the worst away defences

• Whats his recent form like

Good.  3 goals and 4 assist in his last 5 games.  Returned in 3/5

• Whats his underlying stats like

Very good.   Only Silva  is better.  Good shooting and creating chances stats.

• Whats the opposition defence like

Ignore previous stats.  2 home games 2 clean sheets with Pulis.  However even Pulis with Stoke didn’t have a great away record.  He has also emphasised the need for home wins.  Implying that’s their focus.  He can only do so much for a poor away defence in my mind.

• Is he an option?

Not for me, too inconsistent and the residual selection doubt makes it worse.

 Lukaku (home to Fulham)

• Will he start?

Yes.

• How consistent is he generally and at home?

Pretty consistent.  He’s returned in 8/13 games this season (8 goals and 3 assists).  At  home he’s scored 4 goals and 2 assists in 5 home games.   Returned in 3/5 games.  He’s  not returned against   Spurs and  Hull at home.

• How has he performed against poor opposition so far

Good.  Scored against Stoke and Newcastle at home.  Didn’t against Hull though

• Whats his recent form like

Excellent.  He’s returned in 4 out of his last 5.

• Whats his underlying stats like

Good he has good shooting  stats but no real creating chances stats which gives him the chance to assist if he isn’t scoring.  That’s not ideal by any stretch.  The best strikers have both.  Suarez and Aguero the best examples.

• Whats the opposition defence like

13 goals conceded in 7 games and 1 clean sheet away.  Only Stoke and Hull have a worse home defence by my rating.  Conceding 9 in their last 3.  The new manager effect is the only watch out

• Is he an option?

Yes definitely.  He may not have the overall game that Suarez and Aguero have but he’s playing the best opposition.

Rooney (Away to  Villa)

• Will he start?

Yes.

• How consistent is he generally and away?  

Excellent.  8 goals and 7 assists in 13 games.  He’s returned in 10/13 games.  He also has pens now that RVP is injured. Away he’s returned in 5/6 games.   Only game away he didn’t return in was away to Sunderland.

• How has he performed against poor opposition so far?

Excellent.  Away from home Sunderland are the only game in 6 he’s blanked

• Whats his recent form like

Excellent.  In the last 5 he’s scored 4 goals and 3 assists. He’s returned in 4/5

• Whats his underlying stats like

Good.  Not to Aguero or Suarez standards but now has good shooting and creating chances stats

• Whats the opposition defence like

OK at best.  At home, 9 goals conceded and 2 clean sheets in 7 games.   2 clean sheets.

• Is he an option?

Yes.  He will play up top with RVP injured.  He will also dominate set pieces and take pens.  United are far better away from home than at home goal scoring wise.  The Villa defence is ok at best and I can see him scoring.

 Suarez (away to Spurs)

• Will he start?

Yes

• How consistent is he generally and away?

Very good.  Overall, in 10 games he’s scored an incredible 14 goals and 7 assists.  He’s returned in 8/10 games. Away from home he returned in 5/7.  He’s blanked against Hull and Arsenal away.

• How has he performed against good opposition so far

Good.  They’ve only played Arsenal away and Everton away.  He blanked at Arsenal although was unlucky.  He got a goal and an assist at Everton although from a free kick rather than open play.

• Whats his recent form like

Excellent.  8 goals and 4 assists in his last 5 games.  Returned in 4/5.

• Whats his underlying stats like

Excellent.  Probably the best overall underlying shooting and creating chances stats of any striker with Aguero.

• Whats the opposition defence like

Very good but better away. 9 goals conceded at home and 4 clean sheets.

• Is he an option?

Yes.  I dont think you can rule him out under any circumstances

Aguero (Arsenal home)

• Will he start?

He should do.  He didn’t start against Bayern

• How consistent is he generally and  at home?   

Excellent.  12 goals and 8 assists in 14 games overall.  Returned in 5/7 at home.  Didn’t return against Hull and Swansea strangely

• How has he performed against good opposition so far

Excellent.  Returned  against Man Utd, Spurs and Everton

• Whats his recent form like

Good.  4 goals and 1 assist in his last 5 games.  Returned in 3/5

• Whats his underlying stats like

Excellent.  Only Suarez is in the same ball park.  Great shooting and creating chances stats.  Equally good home and away stats.

• Whats the opposition defence like

Excellent.  Only Spurs are better away in my mind.  However look what happened to them.

• Is he an option?

He’s always an option for me.  Opposition doesn’t matter.  Should take pens and could have Silva back.

Summary:

Yes in order:

1. Lukaku

2.  Aguero

3.  Suarez

4.  Rooney

Not Hazard for me

William Hill check

Here’s how William Hill see the anytime goal scorer odds market with all players at under £2.00

1.   Lukaku £1.57

2.  Aguero £2.00

Suarez £2.00

Rooney – £2.00

Hazard is £2.20

Were very  aligned here for a change

I hope that gives you some food for thought for your fantasy premier league captain choice.

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