Background 

Just as a general point for those coming to the site for the first time.   I did alot of research on where the 10 point plus fantasy premier league attacking scores came from and the vast majority came from the top 4 challenging teams playing the potentially relegation threatened teams.  Now that may sound like common sense and it is how I look at where the captain choices should come from.   The theory is simple, you get more shots against the poorer teams.  What was interesting is that there wasn’t much variance between the home fixture and the away fixture.  The opposition was key.  However at the moment Suarez and Sturridge are breaking all the rules and is a form option irrespective of the opposition.

Here’s the best fixtures:

1. Fulham v Chelsea

2. Tottenham v Cardiff

The picks for me from this are:   Hazard and  Adebayor.  I’ll also look at Suarez and Sturridge

Hazard (Fulham away)

• Will he start?

He should do as he has started every fantasy premier league game except Norwich away.  I think Mourinho will be wary of the new manager syndrome against Fulham and play his strongest team.  However Hazard did play the full 90 minutes in Turkey and will presumably be involved in the friendly international against the Ivory Coast during the week.  With Spurs next and an abundance of attacking midfielders it is possible that he wont start

• How consistent is he generally  and  away?

Not that consistent but scores big when he does.  Overall 12 goals 8 assists.    Consistency 12/27   44%  Last 5 return consistency:  1/5 .  Away from home:  Returned in 5 from 13 away from home 38%

• How has he performed against poor opposition away from home

Excellent as he is a flat track bully.  Returned away to Sunderland, West Ham and Norwich

• Whats his recent form like

Mixed.  Only 1 return in his last 6 but that was the sublime hat trick home to Newcastle.  Has played very well in most games though

• Whats his underlying stats like

Only Silva has better underlying shooting and creating chances stats.

• Whats the opposition defence like

The worst home defence.  28 goals conceded in 13 matches.  Conceded more than 1 goal on 9 of those 13 occaisions.  The new manager has promised to focus more on defence though and has a good track record.  Hazard is bound to have space against RB Reither though who treats his penalty area as very secondary to attacking in the oppositions.  Fulham are an ideal side for Chelseas counter attack

• Is he an option? 

It depends on how much risk you want to take and how much you believe he will start.  To be fair he hasn’t done too badly away against poor opposition.  1 return in the last 6 but that being a hat trick sums him up.  Will be on pens if Lamps not on the pitch.  Quite likely since Lamps played in Turkey

 Suarez and Sturridge (Southampton away)

Against any opposition they are an option

Will they both start?

Yes no reason to think either will not start.  As Wenger Mourinho and Pellegrini keep reminding everyone they have nothing else to concentrate on to need to rest anyone

How consistent returners are they overall and away?

Suarez is  an 82 % returner overall.   Suarez has returned in 7/11 away games

Sturridge is an 88% returner overall. Sturridge has returned in 8/9  away games

How have they performed away against goodopposition?

Suarez  has returned in 3 away games against Chelsea Spurs and Everton.  He blanked against Man City and Arsenal

Sturridge returned in the Everton game away but not Arsenal away

Whats their recent form like? 

Suarez has returned in 4 of his last 5 with 1 goal and 4 assists

Sturridge has returned in 5 of his last 5 with 7 goals and 3 assists

Whats their underlying stats like?

Shooting stats wise Suarez is marginally better overall this season and on recent form despite the goal scoring differential.  Creating chances wise Suarez is streets ahead.  Suarez is generally had the highest average position although some times less centrally than Sturridge. The distinction has been a little more blurred recently.  Penalty area touches Suarez is miles ahead.  In recent games. despite the goal differential. The average position has been a little less clear but not to the extent of Suarez shunted wide as you may think.  Shots in the box are similar but penalty  box touches and chances created are miles in favour of Suarez.  If you add the Swansea game into this Suarez was far more central and advanced had better shooting stats and more pen box touches

Whats the opposition defence like?

Slipped a little from earlier impressive form.  1 clean sheet in their last 8 and conceded 15 goals.  Lovren should return to improve the position.

Are they options?

They are options irrespective of the opposition

So who’s the best option?

Sturridge is certainly in the best form and returns are far better.  The underlying stats suggest that Suarez is still getting into the same shots and positons but just not converting.  In theory this should return.  You could argue that Sturridges ability to run on to through balls will favour the away game and that shows with his consistency away from home.  Saints pressing game certainly could play into his hands if Liverpool can break the press.  Suarez is just a brilliant all round footballer who’s just not seeing the luck at the moment.  The law of averages etc

Adebayor ( Cardiff home)

• Will he start?

Hard to believe he wont given he’s had half the season off under AVB

• How consistent is he generally  and  at home?

OK Overall 8 goals 4 assists in 11 games.   Consistency since Sherwood 7/ 11   64%          Last 5 return rate:  2/5   At home he’s returned in 3 of the last 5 home games

• How has he performed against poor opposition at home

OK.  Against WBA at home he blanked.  Stoke at home he got 2 assists.  Pulis’ Palace at home he got 1 assist.

• Whats his recent form like

OK 3 goals and 1 assist and 2 returning games in his last 5

• Whats his underlying stats like

Pretty good all round shooting and creating chances stats.

• Whats the opposition defence like

Only Stoke Norwich and Fulham have conceded more goals away from home.  They’ve conceded 26 goals in 13 games.  In 9 of those games they’ve conceded 2 or more goals.  The last 5 games away games have been (most recent at the bottom)

LIV(A) 1-3
ARS(A) 0-2
MCI(A) 2-4
MUN(A) 0-2
SWA(A) 0-3

• Is he an option? 

Yes.  His home form aganst poor sides isn’t that impressive as well as his recent league form being a bit mixed.  He has been consistent overall and there’s no doubting his talent.  The effect of playing on Thursday could be an issue as well as Sherwoods inexplicable trend for leaving out the teams only creative player in Eriksen.  That may change this week after the Dnipro game though.  The advantage he has is that the opposition are awful and if the above is anything to go by should concede a couple.  Adebayor you would think would be involved in that.  He could take pens if Soldado is off the pitch.  I personally think Sherwood will play 2 strikers

William Hill check

Here’s how William Hill see the anytime goal scorer odds market with all players at under £2.00

1.  £1.57 – Adebayor

2.  £1.91 – Lukaku Eto’o Torres Suarez Soldado

Sturridge is £2.00.  Hazard is £2.00

Very interesting.  They’ve made Adebayor clear favourite.  Interesting as well as for a hat trick he’s £13 but the others at £1.91 are £21 which is a big differential.

Ive ignored Lukaku as it’s a little much to give him the armband after being out for so long.   Eto’o Torres and Soldado I’ve ignored for game time risk

I hope that gives you some food for thought for your fantasy premier league captain choice.

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