fantasy premier league captain pick GW14 – plus transfer poll results (UPDATED)


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Here’s our fantasy premier league captain pick GW14 article. We look at the fixtures, the bookies odds, the FFGeek captain poll, the contributors picks and a load of stats to seek out the best captain choice. There’s also the results of the transfer polls.  UPDATED:  Updated for the full FFGeek contributor captain picks

fantasy premier league captain pick GW14 – plus transfer poll results

The fixtures

fantasy premier league captain pick GW14

Bookies team to win odds

Newcastle v Man City  – £1.17  Sterling, De Bruyne, Jesus

Liverpool v Brighton – £1.20  Salah, Mane, Firmino

Chelsea v West Ham – £1.28 Abraham if fit, Pulisic

Spurs v Bournemouth – £1.36 Kane, Son, Alli, Moura

Man Utd v Villa – £1.47 Rashford, Martial

The bookies player odds

The odds are for £1 invested up to £2.40. They assume the player starts and ignores assist potential.

£1.65 – Jesus, Kane

£1.70 – Aubameyang

£1.73 – Mane

£1.75 – Lacazette, Vardy

£1.80 – Salah

£1.85 – Rashford

£1.91 – Sterling, Martial

£2.00 – Ings, Pukki

£2.10 – Firmino, Son

£2.25 – Bernardo Silva, Jimenez

£2.37 – Wood

The Captain Poll results

The captain poll asks who will be your captain?




fantasy premier league captain pick GW14

Other FPL polls

Here’s a selection of results from other polls

fantasy premier league captain pick GW14

Poll 1 is the highest traffic site and asks who is the best captain

There are 2 twitter polls which ask who your captain will be

The last 1 is a low volume site poll where there is no question

n/a means that pplayer isn’t in the poll

The FFGeek contributor captain picks

UPDATED for 19 contributor captain picks




Vardy vs Mane

Gametime

With no European football it’s pretty impossible to see Vardy rested.  Rodgers has also talked about how he has managed Vardy’s game by getting him to do less pressing and staying within the width of the 18 yard box to become a more pure goalscorer.

Mane played 90 minutes midweek vs Napoli and on Wednesday they play Everton so in theory I guess he is susceptible to rotation.  It’s worth saying though that Mane, as is the same for the front 3, isnt a particularly rotated player in the Premier League.  Last season he started 35 games.  Missed 1 through injury plus 1 sub appearance and 1 rested. When he played he played 90 mins 27 times and only less than 80 when he started 3 times.

Salah’s niggling ankle could make him more of a rotation target than Mane.

Stat comparison

Hopefully the abbreviations are self explanatory. The first set of fixtures are non top 6 home to non traditional top 6 sides (excl Arsenal). The overall are the entire season.

I excluded Mane’s 16 minutes of nothing in GW1 in the overall fixtures.  I included the Leicester game for Mane as it appears from the shot count that Leicester didn’t come to attack particularly like a non top 6 team.  My recollection is Spurs and Man City did which is why they were excluded.  I don’t expect Everton to play offensively

Defences

Brighton away are:

14th ranked in goals conceded away with 11 in 6 away games

20th ranked in xGA away with 14.96

17th in shots per game away against with 17.7

16th in offsides per game away which is a sign of bus parking in away games

6th in possession away from home which suggests they try and play

In away games against traditional top 6 teams they lost 4-0 to Man City (xGA 2.31) 2-0 to Chelsea (xGA 4.26) and 3-1 to Man Utd (xGA 3.65)

Everton away are:

11th ranked in goals conceded away with 10 goals conceded in 6 home games

1st ranked in xGA at home with 5.60 xGA

1st in shots per game away against with 7.8

1st equal in lowest offsides per game away which is a sign of a bus being parked

5th in possession at away which leans towards them not being a defensive team

They have not played any traditional top 6 side away as yet.  Their away games have been Palace, Villa, Bournemouth, Burnley, Brighton and Southampton.  At home they lost 3-1 to Man City (xGA 3.11) and drew with Spurs 1-1 (xGA 0.24)

Summary

Gametime Vardy seems certain to start.  Harder to predict for Mane with European fixtures but he’s not a highly rotated player.

The bookies have them too close to call around the £1.75 mark for anytime goalscoring odds.

The FFGeek poll clearly favours Vardy.  Other FPL polls are closer.

UPDATED:  Of the 19 contributors 47% went for Vardy, 21% went for Mane and 16% for Salah

The stats for each player are also relatively close in all areas.  Mane possibly has more assist potential.

Defences clearly favour Everton although distorted by the schedule somewhat

Vardy has the advantage of penalties which Mane doesn’t.

The FFGeek view

All that didn’t make things clearer so I’ve yet to decide.  I will for my team article.

The Transfer Polls

More content

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Other posts

GW14 Fixture ease

Analysing 10 top FPL managers teams

Early thoughts on the FFGeek team

FFGeek contributors show their teams for GW14 part 1

GW14 defender and GK player rankings

GW14 midfielder player rankings

FFGeek Captain and transfer polls

FFGeek GW14 imaginary wildcard

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2 thoughts on “fantasy premier league captain pick GW14 – plus transfer poll results (UPDATED)”

  1. Great stuff as always, however one of your stats is wrong.
    While Everton are having a terrible season they haven’t (quite) conceded 710 goal in 6 away games.

    Reply

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